Gale Warning 103, NWS Anchorage, AK

549 
FZAK51 PAFC 300030
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
330 PM AKST Sat Jan 29 2022

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-301330-
330 PM AKST Sat Jan 29 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 992 mb low 135 nm south of Middleton Island moves to 95 nm south
of Port Alexander at 1006 mb by Sun afternoon. Weak high pressure
transits the western Gulf beginning Sun afternoon. A front enters
the western Gulf Mon morning.

$$

PKZ119-301330-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
330 PM AKST Sat Jan 29 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt becoming Variable 10 kt after midnight. 
Gusts to 30 kt out of the Copper River Delta. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Gusts to 30 kt out of the Copper River Delta.
Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Gusts to 30 kt out of the Copper River
Delta. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ120-301330-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
330 PM AKST Sat Jan 29 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ121-301330-
Resurrection Bay-
330 PM AKST Sat Jan 29 2022

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-301330-
Prince William Sound-
330 PM AKST Sat Jan 29 2022

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-301330-
Port Valdez-
330 PM AKST Sat Jan 29 2022

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-301330-
Valdez Narrows-
330 PM AKST Sat Jan 29 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT THROUGH WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-301330-
Valdez Arm-
330 PM AKST Sat Jan 29 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT THROUGH WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ129-301330-
Passage Canal-
330 PM AKST Sat Jan 29 2022

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Gusts to 30 kt near Whittier. 
Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Gusts to 30 kt near Whittier. 
Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after 
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT and tue...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-301330-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
330 PM AKST Sat Jan 29 2022

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 50 kt diminishing to 35 kt after midnight. 
Seas 16 ft subsiding to 12 ft after midnight. Heavy freezing spray.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-301330-
Barren Islands East-
330 PM AKST Sat Jan 29 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...E wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ132-301330-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
330 PM AKST Sat Jan 29 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. 
N of Dangerous Cape, NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ136-301330-
Chiniak Bay-
330 PM AKST Sat Jan 29 2022

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ137-301330-
Marmot Bay-
330 PM AKST Sat Jan 29 2022

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt becoming NW 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-301330-
Shelikof Strait-
330 PM AKST Sat Jan 29 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 8 ft subsiding to 5 ft after midnight. Heavy freezing spray.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Heavy freezing spray in the morning.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-301330-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
330 PM AKST Sat Jan 29 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming N 15 kt after midnight. 
S of Anchor Point, W wind 15 kt early. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
S end of Inlet, Seas 8 ft diminishing to 3 ft after midnight.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft. Freezing
spray.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.

$$

PKZ140-301330-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
330 PM AKST Sat Jan 29 2022

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt 
after midnight.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less 
than 10 kt.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt 
after midnight.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 15 kt.

$$

PKZ141-301330-
Kachemak Bay-
330 PM AKST Sat Jan 29 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming variable less than 10 kt 
after midnight. Seas 2 ft. Along the outer bay, seas 8 ft 
subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
.SUN THROUGH MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

270 
FZAK51 PAFC 301230
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
330 AM AKST Sun Jan 30 2022

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-310145-
330 AM AKST Sun Jan 30 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A weak trough lingers over the Gulf Of Alaska. A weak 
1014 mb low enters the western Gulf Mon morning. This low will 
continue to weaken and exit the Gulf Tue morning.

$$

PKZ119-310145-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
330 AM AKST Sun Jan 30 2022

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...E wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ120-310145-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
330 AM AKST Sun Jan 30 2022

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ121-310145-
Resurrection Bay-
330 AM AKST Sun Jan 30 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 4 
ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Freezing spray during the
evening.
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-310145-
Prince William Sound-
330 AM AKST Sun Jan 30 2022

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft.
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-310145-
Port Valdez-
330 AM AKST Sun Jan 30 2022

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-310145-
Valdez Narrows-
330 AM AKST Sun Jan 30 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt by afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-310145-
Valdez Arm-
330 AM AKST Sun Jan 30 2022

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ129-310145-
Passage Canal-
330 AM AKST Sun Jan 30 2022

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Gusts to 30 kt during the morning. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-310145-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
330 AM AKST Sun Jan 30 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ131-310145-
Barren Islands East-
330 AM AKST Sun Jan 30 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ132-310145-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
330 AM AKST Sun Jan 30 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. N of Dangerous Cape, variable wind 10 kt
becoming E 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ136-310145-
Chiniak Bay-
330 AM AKST Sun Jan 30 2022

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ137-310145-
Marmot Bay-
330 AM AKST Sun Jan 30 2022

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt becoming NW 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2
ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ138-310145-
Shelikof Strait-
330 AM AKST Sun Jan 30 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft building to 9 ft in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-310145-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
330 AM AKST Sun Jan 30 2022

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft. Freezing
spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft. Freezing
spray.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.TUE...N wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.

$$

PKZ140-310145-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
330 AM AKST Sun Jan 30 2022

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt after
midnight.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N wind 20 kt.

$$

PKZ141-310145-
Kachemak Bay-
330 AM AKST Sun Jan 30 2022

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
437 PM AKST Fri Jan 28 2022

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A vertically stacked low near Kodiak Island is continuing to
drive snowfall along the coast in southeasterly flow out ahead
of it. Despite the widespread radar returns, much of the
precipitation farther inland is not reaching the ground. Heaviest
precipitation is seen near Prince William Sound and will gradually
taper off through the evening as the low tracks eastward over the
Gulf. Farther west, gusty winds are occurring south of the Alaska
Peninsula in northwesterly flow behind the aforementioned lows.
These will also diminish through the evening. Otherwise the only
other feature of note is a compact low in the far western Aleutians.
Strong southerly winds ahead of it are bringing rain to Adak.
Benign conditions are observed elsewhere across the rest of the
Bering/Aleutians in a weak flow pattern.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

As a low begins to track eastward in the Gulf this evening, there
remains some model disagreement as to how it will merge with
another circulation tracking northward in the eastern Gulf. In
any case, impacts to the coast will be the same, with snowfall
gradually tapering off into Saturday morning. The strength and
position of a low in the far western Aleutians is well-handled.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR ceilings are likely to persist, although brief MVFR
ceilings are possible through this evening. Little to no
precipitation is expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 to 3: Tonight
through Monday):

An upper level low near Kodiak Island will continue to sink
southeast into the Gulf through Sunday morning, with its
attendant surface low pressure wobbling across the gulf towards
the AK Panhandle. What's left of the snowfall event will end for
most locations by early tomorrow morning as the low pulls away
from the coast, with initially easterly flow around the low and
downslope drying preventing any remaining snow from reaching the
ground across the Mat-Su Valleys tonight. In contrast, areas west
of Prince William Sound still seeing moderate snow with upslope
enhancement could see several more inches of snowfall before the
low shifts farther into the Gulf, with locally up to another foot
possible near Turnagain Pass and Portage Valley through late
tonight.

Overall quiet and slightly cooler conditions will prevail for the
rest of the weekend into early next week as dry offshore flow
develops around an upper level ridge moving into the western half
of the state. The coldest and densest air will pool into the
Copper River Basin, helping to drive gap winds through namely the
Valdez Arm, Thompson Pass and Copper River Delta for the next few
days. These winds are not expected to be anything out of the
ordinary, with the main Gulf low departing to the east by tomorrow
night and consequently decreasing support for a stronger pressure
gradient along the North Gulf Coast. Otherwise, expect a good
chance for some sun to return as early as Saturday afternoon with
the drying flow from the interior helping to gradually clear out
the overcast skies currently in place. Temperatures will cool
somewhat to the 10s to 20s for highs and single digits for lows
for most areas away from the coast through Monday, except over the
Copper River Basin, where lows well below zero are possible both
Sunday and Monday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Today through Monday)...

Southwest will see cooler temperatures as we move into the weekend.
Northeasterly winds will be prevalent but mild thanks to an upper
low situated along the Gulf coast. This low is forecast to amplify
westward into Bristol Bay on Saturday as a shortwave trough over
central Alaska digs southwestward into the Bering and a ridge of
high pressure over the Bering shifts northward and over arctic
Russia. Ultimately this should maintain light northeasterly winds
and generally clear conditions into Saturday for much of Southwest.
Winds across the Alaska Peninsula and interior Bristol Bay,
however, will see north to northwest winds as the surface flow
wraps into the departing upper low over the Gulf. Sunday will see
little in the way of impacts as weak height rises briefly overspread
Southwest, which could result in slightly warmer temperatures by
a couple of degrees. Into Monday, however, a pattern change may
commence with the arrival of front into the Kuskokwim Delta and
Bristol Bay. Precipitation chances will return to the coast by
late Monday along with a chance for a wintry mix.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3:
Today through Monday)...

A cold air mass over the Bering will begin to vacate northward
over the next 24 hours as a weak upper low moves toward Kamchatka.
In the short term this low is producing scattered showers and
overcast skies for much of the Western and Central Aleutians.
Winds on the leading edge of an occluded front may gust to storm
force at times from Attu Station to north of Adak with widespread
gales anticipated across the western Bering. Also in the short
term and further east, northerly gap winds gusting to 50+ knots
will remain possible through the bays and passes of the Alaska
Peninsula into tonight before tapering off during the morning
hours on Saturday. An ASCAT pass from this afternoon revealed 50+
knot winds south of Chignik which should persist through tonight.

A new North Pacific upper low will begin to approach the Aleutian
Chain late on Saturday with scattered showers for the Central
Aleutians. Shower activity is expected to expand in coverage by
Sunday as the low brings a front across the Aleutians and into the
Alaska Peninsula Sunday into early Monday. While snow cannot be
ruled out, it looks like rain will become the predominant
precipitation type as a strong southerly push of warm air follows
in the wake of the front. By Monday the upper low and its
associated front are forecast to depart the Bering to the north.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5 - Monday through Wednesday)...

Gulf of Alaska:

High pressure exits the Gulf for Tuesday. A front enters the
Western Gulf Tuesday and extends across the Gulf by Wednesday.
Forecast confidence is good. Southerly gales are likely as the
front cross the Gulf, particularly in the barrier jet locations
along the north Gulf coast as well as in the Barren islands to
Kamishak Bay area. These stronger winds look like they will be
brief, diminishing by Wednesday.

Bering Sea/Aleutians:

Expect an active weather pattern across the Bering Sea and Aleutians,
with multiple storms tracking from the Pacific northward across
the Bering Sea. Forecast confidence in the specific track of each
storm is low. However, confidence is high in a long duration of
gale force winds across the region. There is also potential for
smaller areas of storm force winds near the low centers. Seas will
remain elevated above 20 feet for the much of the three day period.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday)...

A robust blocking pattern dominating the Gulf will remain in place
in spite of multiple long-wave troughs from the Bering riding
along the high trekking through the Southwest and Southcentral
through the long term. These waves could bring increased clouds
and potentially light snow and a wetter regime over the area. As
the ridge axis settles across the state beginning Wed morning,
dry conditions and rising temperatures are expected for both
Southwest and Southcentral. Though precipitation type issues may
become a challenge, the presence of the upper ridging could help
minimize unstable energy lurking farther inland of Southcentral by
Fri and Fri night.

Over the Bering/Aleutians, a gyre complex North Pacific low will
usher stronger winds with periods of higher gusts along the gaps
and passes starting Tue afternoon through Wed night. Another North
Pacific low races through the central Aleutians bringing more
tropical moisture and stronger winds there and Pribilof Islands
into Fri afternoon. Warm temperatures associated with the
aforementioned lows will produce rain/snow mixed over much of the
Bering/Aleutians through the end of the week. Model solutions
struggled quite a bit with the wind coverage of the latter low,
but clearly points out similar tracks as the low pushes north of
the southern Bering Fri morning.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale Warning 130 131 150 155 174 175 176 177 178 185.
 Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 130 138 150 155 165 179 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...AP
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...BL
MARINE/LONG TERM...CB