Gale Warning 20, NWS Anchorage, AK

871 
FZAK62 PAFC 241218
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
318 AM AKST Mon Jan 24 2022

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-250245-
318 AM AKST Mon Jan 24 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 977 mb low at 58N 162W on Mon morning moves onshore by Mon 
afternoon. High pressure moves into the western Bering Mon night.
A 1008 mb low at 59N 174W on Tue morning moves onshore by Tue
night. A 950 mb low moves to 47N 170E on Tue night. 

$$

PKZ411-250245-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
318 AM AKST Mon Jan 24 2022

.TODAY...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ412-250245-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
318 AM AKST Mon Jan 24 2022

.TODAY...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

PKZ413-250245-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
318 AM AKST Mon Jan 24 2022

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

PKZ414-250245-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
318 AM AKST Mon Jan 24 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 to 35 kt becoming W 10 to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas in ice free waters 3 to 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 to 6 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 to 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind up to 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 to 6
ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3
to 7 ft.

$$

779 
FZAK62 PAFC 250026
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
326 PM AKST Mon Jan 24 2022

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-251500-
326 PM AKST Mon Jan 24 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 958 mb North Pacific low Tue morning moves to 450 nm south of
Attu at 949 mb Tue evening and continues to 300 nm south of Attu 
at 956 mb Wed afternoon. Its front moves through the Western 
Aleutians and Bering Tue evening through Wed afternoon. Another 
front moves along the southern Alaska Peninsula Tue night through 
Wed afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-251500-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
326 PM AKST Mon Jan 24 2022

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt increasing to 25 to 40 kt 
after midnight. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.WED...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 40 to 50 kt. Seas 20 to 29 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.

$$

PKZ412-251500-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
326 PM AKST Mon Jan 24 2022

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...W wind up to 20 kt becoming S up to 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind up to 15 kt increasing to 10 to 25 kt after
midnight. Seas 3 to 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray N of 58N.
.WED...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

PKZ413-251500-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
326 PM AKST Mon Jan 24 2022

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.WED...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

PKZ414-251500-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
326 PM AKST Mon Jan 24 2022

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 to 5 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 to 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 to 6
ft. Heavy freezing spray N of 57N.
.WED...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 to 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 to 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 
3 to 7 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
544 AM AKST Sun Jan 23 2022

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A high amplitude pattern remains in place with a longwave trough
over the Bering and Western Alaska and a strong blocking ridge
over the Eastern Pacific/Western U.S. coast. A weak shortwave
trough lifting across Southcentral is producing a band of light
precipitation moving north across the Kenai Peninsula, Cook Inlet,
and the Susitna Valley this morning. Colder air wrapping in
behind the system overnight combined with a lack of chinook winds
allowed temperatures to cool back to near freezing around most of
the Cook Inlet region. With high clouds clearing out on the back
side of the upper-level shortwave and abundant near-surface
moisture sourced from recently melted snow, a brief bout of fog
developed overnight in the Anchorage Bowl and along Knik Arm, as
well as in portions of the Susitna Valley. Winds, however, have
made a return and the resultant mixing is dissipating the fog and
raising temperatures into the 40s across parts of the Anchorage
Bowl.

Right on the heels of the exiting wave is a warm front ahead of a
deep low from the North Pacific pushing into Southern Alaska,
bringing snow showers to Bristol Bay this morning. Snow has turned
to rain in Sand Point with the arrival of the warm conveyer belt on
the southern coast of the Alaska Peninsula. Across the Bering,
with the exception of the eastern Aleutians, conditions are very quiet
with only isolated snow showers.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

There is good agreement among model guidance regarding the
evolution of large-scale features over the next few days. There
continue to be minor differences with low track across the
Kuskokwim Delta on Monday, which will affect details of the wind
and precipitation forecast across Southwest and Southcentral
Alaska. Of particular note is the GFS continuing to be a high-end
outlier with gap winds across Southwest Alaska. Additionally,
despite the synoptic- scale agreement, a lot of forecast
challenges remain related to the details of the chinook winds in
Southcentral.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Persistent low-level southeasterly flow across the Kenai
and Chugach Mountains will maintain VFR ceilings at the terminal.
There could be some brief periods where the ceiling lowers below
5000 feet as upper waves and light rain move through, but this
would be brief in nature.

The wind forecast is complex. Southeasterly winds will come in
and out of the terminal based on pressure gradients in Cook Inlet
and the Susitna Valley. A large low pressure system moving up from
the Pacific is likely to induce a down-inlet pressure gradient
beginning later this morning which should cause the Turnagain jet
to bend southward out of the terminal. With a frontal passage in
the evening, gusty southeasterlies are expected to make a return.
However, with the down-inlet pressure gradient expected to remain
in place, the timing of this return and how persistent
it will be through the evening and into the overnight hours is
uncertain.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

There was not much break in between systems as the warm southerly
flow aloft and at the surface has kept the temperatures around
southcentral downright balmy (at least for January) overnight in
many areas. This next system moving in from the south will keep
temperatures elevated well above normal for the next two days
before colder air starts to move in from the west Monday night
into Tuesday.

The low at the heart of the next system will remain west of
Southcentral taking a track through Bristol Bay into Southwest
Alaska. This keeps Southcentral in the warm sector of the system
through Monday as a seres of fronts push through the area from
south to north. The first front should move over Kodiak this
morning and then to the north Gulf coast this afternoon and
evening. The coast will see rain with this front but little
precipitation will make it to the lee sides of the mountains. The
much stronger front will make it to Kodiak this evening and then
through Cook Inlet overnight.

While the typical south and southeast gap winds from Turnagain
Arm to the Copper River will persist through the day, they will
increase overnight in response to the approaching front. The
strongest winds are expected to be after midnight tonight through
Monday morning in Turnagain Arm and along the Anchorage Hillside,
where some wind gusts to 75 mph are possible. The Anchorage Bowl
itself will see some periods of gusty southeasterly winds through
Monday morning, but in town winds will not be nearly as strong as
for Turnagain Arm or the Hillside. The strongest Turnagain Arm and
Hillside winds will occur in advance of the frontal passage,
which will coincide with the Turnagain Arm winds bending down the
Inlet and away from Anchorage. After the front passes through, the
southeast winds will then move into Anchorage, but will not be as
strong as they were pre-frontal.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

The King Salmon radar has detected the leading edge of the
precipitation shield from the next North Pacific low early this
morning. With the new Pacific low, Southwest Alaska will get a mix
of precipitation including rain, freezing rain, and snow. On
satellite imagery, there is plume of tropical moisture that
extends back to the Philippines associated with the aforementioned
low. With a strong ridge over the east Pacific and the
Alaska/Canada border, this moisture will move north-
northeastward for the next 48 hrs. Expect another wintry mix from
this system.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

The longwave pattern features a broad trough over the Bering and
the North Pacific, with a ridge axis over the East Pacific
extending northward towards the Alaska/Canada border. There is a
closed low near the Bering Strait and a deep low south of the
Alaska Peninsula that will trek north-northeast. The system moving
from the North Pacific will bring a batch of unsettled weather to
the eastern Aleutians and Bristol Bay. Gales will materialize
with this mature low. The leading edge of the ice shield is less
than 100 nm north and east of St Paul Island. Freezing spray will
be possible for portions of the Bering this forecast period.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5 - Tuesday through Thursday)...

Gulf of Alaska...Brief gales associated with a trough are
expected south of Kenai Peninsula, bringing seas of 12 to 15 ft
Tue morning through Tue afternoon. Meanwhile, a strong frontal
system from a North Pacific low tracks northward, causing widespread
gales and the potential for storm force gusts into Thu morning.
This latter system will also generate strong southerly swells of
more than 18 ft as both the low and front advances through the
northern Gulf. Essentially, seas will continue to build Thu night
especially along the north Gulf Coast. Forecast confidence is
moderate.

Aleutians / Bering...Two separate North Pacific lows and their
associated fronts will bring widespread gales and the potential
for storm force gusts, and seas of more than 20 ft between Tue and
Thu night. The first low will sweep gales and potentially storm
force gusts across the Western Aleutians/Bering starting Tue
morning. Should this system stay on track, mostly elevated
weather will remain west of Pribilof Islands and Central
Aleutians through Thu morning. The second North Pacific low could
reach the Western Aleutians/southern Bering either Thu evening or
Fri morning, and it will be a repeat of the first low bringing
another round of widespread gales and potentially storm force
gusts mainly across the Western Aleutians/Bering. Forecast
confidence is moderate.

Over the southwestern Gulf, GFS is the only solution indicating
stronger gap winds for the Eastern Aleutians and south of the
Alaska Peninsula in connection with a separate North Pacific low
starting Wed night. For now, will monitor this situation and
provide updates on the next forecast package.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through
Saturday)...

Multiple amplified North Pacific lows combined with an Arctic upper
trough will bring active weather across Southcentral and
Southwest the next several days. Over Southcentral, upper ridging
transits from the Gulf through Southcentral between Wed and Thu,
leading to increased low clouds/stratus overnight into early
morning hours, and from cooler to warmer temperatures as the ridge
shifts eastward. Meanwhile, tropical moisture combined with
series of upper-level short-waves from the Gulf could draw
increased precipitation over much of Prince William Sound through
the Kenai Peninsula and Kodiak Island beginning Wed night through
Sat afternoon.

Over Southwest, an Arctic trough extends southward through the
coast on Wed, followed by a separate wave from the Bering leading
to the merging of these two separate features by Thu morning.
This situation could produce increased snowfall as cold air
advection fills Southwest AK into the weekend. Over the Bering, a
robust ridge over the Bering will enhance a broad area of low
clouds/stratus for the Aleutians and Pribilof Islands into Sat
night.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Watch 101.
MARINE...Gale Warning 119 120 130-132 136-139 141
                      150 155 160 170 172 174 180
                      351 352.
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 160 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CQ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PJS
MARINE/LONG TERM...CB