Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
930 PM CST Wed Nov 10 2021

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tonight) Issued at 905 PM CST Wed Nov 10 2021

Ongoing convective line is entering northwest AR at this time then
it trails back into eastern OK north of I-40. Instability ahead of
the line looks to drop off dramatically as you move from Benton
and Washington counties into Carroll and Madison so expect this
portion to continue to weaken. However, elevated instability
broadens across west- central AR into southeast OK which should
support continued advancement of strong to occasionally severe
cells for another hour or so ahead of the front. Low level shear
has been sufficient to maintain a few organized updrafts along
the trailing line with strong wind gusts. Steep lapse rates and
low melting levels associated with the passing trough will keep
the threat of hail going through the evening though expect sizes
to be limited by waning instability. Extended the Severe
Thunderstorm Watch into western AR to cover immediate severe
hazards but don't anticipate a need to extend in time past 10 pm.

Convection should clear eastern most counties by 08Z with
northwest winds and drier air filtering in behind the front.
Expect some clearing across eastern Oklahoma by daybreak which
combined with cold advection should yield low temperatures near
targeted forecast in the lower to mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 139 PM CST Wed Nov 10 2021

Cooler conditions into Thursday behind front with high temperatures
in the lower 60s. A secondary mid level vort max will rotate
around backside of stronger upper low developing over the western
Great Lakes region late Thursday night into early Friday morning.
A few light rain showers will be possible during this time across
NE OK/NW AR with a secondary surge of cooler air into the day
Friday. 1026 MB surface high pressure progged to build over the
region by Saturday morning and with light winds/clear skies,
expect the potential for a more widespread freeze. Another weak
cold front will move through on Sunday but with limited moisture
to work with, any precipitation would be light a best. As zonal
flow aloft becomes established into the early part of next week,
warmer conditions are expected with increasing southerly winds.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 505 PM CST Wed Nov 10 2021
Cluster of thunderstorms will likely impact the NE OK TAF sites
between the 00-04Z time period with LIFR visibilities in the
stronger storms. Similar brief/tempo conditions are expected at
MLC and NW AR TAF sites later this evening. Behind the main
convective line, a brief period of stratiform precip with higher
based VFR ceilings will be possible before skies clear from west
to east between 06-09Z. Also a period of gusty northwest winds
behind the front, especially at E OK TAF sites, before decreasing
Thursday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   45  63  42  55 /  60   0  20   0
FSM   49  64  42  59 / 100   0  10  20
MLC   46  63  42  58 /  90   0   0  10
BVO   42  61  40  53 /  40   0  20   0
FYV   43  60  37  54 / 100   0  10  20
BYV   45  58  40  51 / 100   0  10  10
MKO   45  61  42  54 /  90   0  10  10
MIO   43  59  40  51 /  90   0  20  10
F10   45  63  41  56 /  70   0  10  10
HHW   49  64  41  61 / 100   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...12

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
438 PM CST Wed Nov 10 2021

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-111130-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
438 PM CST Wed Nov 10 2021

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Remainder of this Afternoon and Tonight.

TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Southeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...After 6 PM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...

Scattered strong thunderstorms have started to develop across
portions of eastern Oklahoma late this afternoon.  The thunderstorm
activity will likely continue to increase in coverage and intensity
into the evening hours. Some of these storms could be severe with
damaging winds and hail to the size of quarters the main concerns.
Although the overall tornado threat is limited, the potential for a
tornado or two will exist for a short time early this evening across
southeast Oklahoma. The overall severe weather potential will begin
to decrease as storms move into northwest Arkansas late this evening
although a few strong storms could persist. In addition to the
severe thunderstorm potential, localized heavy rainfall and flash
flooding are possible through the evening hours.  The heavier
precipitation will shift east of northwest Arkansas between Midnight
and 3 AM.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
THURSDAY...No Hazards.
FRIDAY...High Wind Potential.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A reinforcing cold front will pass Thursday night with gusty
northerly winds and cooler temperatures on Friday. Dry and cooler
weather continues through the weekend with warmer temperatures and
a return to southerly winds by early next week.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
919 PM CST Wed Nov 10 2021

OKZ053-110345-
Choctaw OK-
919 PM CST Wed Nov 10 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Choctaw
County through 945 PM CST...

At 918 PM CST, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 5 miles
southwest of Goodland, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Hugo...                           Fort Towson...
Sawyer...                         Soper...
Kent...                           Goodland...
Messer...                         Hugo Lake State Park...
Raymond Gary State Park...        Grant...
Ord...                            Fallon...
Frogville...                      Speer...
Huskey...                         Gay...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CST for
southeastern Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3387 9546 3389 9546 3387 9550 3389 9551
      3388 9554 3393 9556 3394 9560 3392 9561
      3391 9564 3391 9567 3389 9569 3390 9575
      3387 9577 3387 9583 3416 9561 3408 9521
      3387 9530 3389 9533 3387 9534
TIME...MOT...LOC 0318Z 222DEG 25KT 3392 9563

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Snider

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
922 PM CST Wed Nov 10 2021

OKZ049-073-075-110345-
Pittsburg OK-Latimer OK-Pushmataha OK-
922 PM CST Wed Nov 10 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern
Pushmataha, southwestern Latimer and southeastern Pittsburg Counties
through 945 PM CST...

At 921 PM CST, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 4 miles southwest of Higgins to 4 miles northwest
of Lane. Movement was east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Hartshorne...                     Higgins...
Yanush...                         Haileyville...
Sardis...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CST for
southeastern Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3450 9578 3451 9567 3459 9567 3459 9588
      3464 9588 3485 9558 3482 9518 3427 9578
TIME...MOT...LOC 0321Z 269DEG 23KT 3478 9551 3435 9605

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Lacy

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
952 PM CST Wed Nov 10 2021

OKZ072-074-076-110430-
Haskell OK-Sequoyah OK-Le Flore OK-
952 PM CST Wed Nov 10 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of eastern Haskell,
central Sequoyah and northern Le Flore Counties through 1030 PM
CST...

At 952 PM CST, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 3 miles southeast of Brushy Lake State Park to
Tamaha to near Stigler. Movement was east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Sallisaw...                       Poteau...
Stigler...                        Pocola...
Muldrow...                        Roland...
Spiro...                          Arkoma...
Panama...                         Keota...
Mccurtain...                      Bokoshe...
Gans...                           Cameron...
Tamaha...                         Moffett...
Brushy...                         Mc Curtain...
Shady Point...                    Rock Island...

This includes Interstate 40 in Oklahoma between mile markers 299 and
328.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CST for
northwestern Arkansas...and southeastern and east central Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3497 9454 3519 9519 3541 9503 3557 9475
      3551 9445 3545 9444 3518 9444
TIME...MOT...LOC 0352Z 291DEG 35KT 3552 9478 3540 9498 3524 9510

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Lacy

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1008 PM CST Wed Nov 10 2021

ARZ019-029-110445-
Sebastian AR-Crawford AR-
1008 PM CST Wed Nov 10 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southwestern Crawford
and northern Sebastian Counties through 1045 PM CST...

At 1008 PM CST, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 4 miles southwest of Figure Five to Keota.
Movement was east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Fort Smith...                     Van Buren...
Greenwood...                      Alma...
Barling...                        Lavaca...
Mulberry...                       Dyer...
Hackett...                        Bonanza...
Figure Five...                    Fort Smith Regional Airport...
Jenny Lind...                     Kibler...
Central City...                   Concord...
Shibley...                        Mill Creek...
Rye Hill...                       Furry...

This includes the following highways,
 Interstate 40 in Arkansas between mile markers 0 and 18.
 Interstate 540 between mile markers 1 and 14.
 Interstate 49 near mile marker 22.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3544 9408 3533 9408 3514 9444 3540 9443
      3551 9445 3552 9443 3551 9403 3549 9405
      3548 9404 3547 9406 3546 9403
TIME...MOT...LOC 0408Z 276DEG 34KT 3549 9443 3526 9492

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Lacy

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1030 PM CST Wed Nov 10 2021

ARZ029-OKZ049-075-076-110515-
Sebastian AR-Latimer OK-Pushmataha OK-Le Flore OK-
1030 PM CST Wed Nov 10 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southwestern
Sebastian, northeastern Pushmataha, eastern Latimer and Le Flore
Counties through 1115 PM CST...

At 1029 PM CST, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 6 miles northwest of Wister to near Nashoba.
Movement was east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Poteau...                         Heavener...
Talihina...                       Wister...
Howe...                           Hartford...
Huntington...                     Red Oak...
Fanshawe...                       Midland...
Albion...                         Octavia...
Talimena State Park...            Heavener Runestone State Park...
Tuskahoma...                      Big Cedar...
Kiamichi...                       Whitesboro...
Clayton Lake State Park...        Bengal...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3441 9541 3506 9501 3506 9493 3510 9493
      3512 9425 3496 9428 3496 9437 3493 9445
      3451 9447 3451 9504 3439 9505
TIME...MOT...LOC 0429Z 259DEG 32KT 3505 9477 3447 9522

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Snider

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1034 PM CST Wed Nov 10 2021

ARZ019-020-029-110515-
Sebastian AR-Franklin AR-Crawford AR-
1034 PM CST Wed Nov 10 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Franklin, eastern
Crawford and Sebastian Counties through 1115 PM CST...

At 1034 PM CST, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 2 miles north of Cass to 5 miles east of Mulberry
to 2 miles east of Jenny Lind to 3 miles south of Pocola. Movement
was southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Fort Smith...                     Ozark...
Charleston...                     Greenwood...
Barling...                        Lavaca...
Mulberry...                       Mansfield...
Hackett...                        Altus...
Bonanza...                        Branch...
Denning...                        Wiederkehr Village...
Cass...                           Excelsior...
Bloomer...                        Washburn...
Burnville...                      Fort Chaffee...

This includes Interstate 40 in Arkansas between mile markers 25 and
42.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3538 9371 3537 9375 3542 9380 3531 9381
      3532 9392 3523 9392 3523 9402 3514 9403
      3514 9414 3510 9414 3507 9425 3506 9423
      3497 9423 3496 9427 3512 9425 3511 9444
      3526 9444 3552 9402 3577 9390 3577 9371
TIME...MOT...LOC 0434Z 313DEG 26KT 3573 9382 3548 9396 3526 9427 3518
9449

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Lacy