Alert archive / Oklahoma / Special Weather Statements in 2021

Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

November 10, 2021Delaware County, Ottawa County, Oklahoma

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this special weather statement at Nov 10, 2021, 8:14 PM CST for Delaware County, Ottawa County, Oklahoma. It was in force for 46 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Nov 10, 2021, 8:14 PM CST (02:14 UTC)
Expired: Nov 10, 2021, 9:00 PM CST
In force: 46 min
Issued by: NWS Tulsa, OK
Hail: 0.00 in
Wind: 50

Counties Delaware County, OK, Ottawa County, OK

The radar

The Tulsa radar (KINX), 81 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:15 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 2.2 hours before the alert went out and 99 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 5 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -156 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1136 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 36 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 185 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 187 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Nov 10, 5:21 PM CST, 2 hours 53 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Nov 10, 5:21 PM CST, 2 hours 53 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
521 PM CST Wed Nov 10 2021

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 139 PM CST Wed Nov 10 2021

Cap continues to slowly erode this afternoon in association with
stronger forcing/low level moisture transport ahead of approaching
upper trough. Extensive cloud cover, including scattered showers
have inhibited stronger surface heating but still expect SBCAPES
to climb into the 1000-1300 J/kg range by late afternoon.

Strong to severe storms are expected to develop in the 22-00Z time
frame west of Tulsa along frontal boundary with convective line
moving into the metro by early evening. Although deep layer shear
will be somewhat marginal, steep mid level lapse rates and low wet
bulb zero heights will support the potential for severe hail.
Further south, across southeast Oklahoma, a discrete thunderstorm or
two may develop ahead of main convective line. 0-1 km shear will
increase into the 35-40 knot range in association with low level
jet and at least a limited tornado threat with large hail/damaging
winds will persist through the evening hours. In addition, brief
heavy rainfall will be possible over much of the region as PWAT
values climb to around 1.25 inches, which is 2 standard deviations
from normal. With dormant vegetation over some of the area,
localized flooding will be possible with a few of the stronger
storms.

The overall severe threat will begin to slowly diminish as line of
storms move into northwest Arkansas late this evening with the
heavier precipitation shifting east of area around 3 am.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 139 PM CST Wed Nov 10 2021

Cooler conditions into Thursday behind front with high temperatures
in the lower 60s. A secondary mid level vort max will rotate
around backside of stronger upper low developing over the western
Great Lakes region late Thursday night into early Friday morning.
A few light rain showers will be possible during this time across
NE OK/NW AR with a secondary surge of cooler air into the day
Friday. 1026 MB surface high pressure progged to build over the
region by Saturday morning and with light winds/clear skies,
expect the potential for a more widespread freeze. Another weak
cold front will move through on Sunday but with limited moisture
to work with, any precipitation would be light a best. As zonal
flow aloft becomes established into the early part of next week,
warmer conditions are expected with increasing southerly winds.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 505 PM CST Wed Nov 10 2021
Cluster of thunderstorms will likely impact the NE OK TAF sites
between the 00-04Z time period with LIFR visibilities in the
stronger storms. Similar brief/tempo conditions are expected at
MLC and NW AR TAF sites later this evening. Behind the main
convective line, a brief period of stratiform precip with higher
based VFR ceilings will be possible before skies clear from west
to east between 06-09Z. Also a period of gusty northwest winds
behind the front, especially at E OK TAF sites, before decreasing
Thursday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   45  63  42  55 /  80   0  20   0
FSM   49  64  42  59 / 100   0  10  20
MLC   46  63  42  58 / 100   0   0  10
BVO   42  61  40  53 /  80   0  20   0
FYV   43  60  37  54 / 100   0  10  20
BYV   45  58  40  51 / 100   0  10  10
MKO   45  61  42  54 /  90   0  10  10
MIO   43  59  40  51 /  90   0  20  10
F10   45  63  41  56 /  90   0  10  10
HHW   49  64  41  61 / 100   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...12

Hazardous weather outlook, Nov 10, 4:38 PM CST, 3 hours 36 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
438 PM CST Wed Nov 10 2021

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-111130-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
438 PM CST Wed Nov 10 2021

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Remainder of this Afternoon and Tonight.

TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Southeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...After 6 PM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...

Scattered strong thunderstorms have started to develop across
portions of eastern Oklahoma late this afternoon.  The thunderstorm
activity will likely continue to increase in coverage and intensity
into the evening hours. Some of these storms could be severe with
damaging winds and hail to the size of quarters the main concerns.
Although the overall tornado threat is limited, the potential for a
tornado or two will exist for a short time early this evening across
southeast Oklahoma. The overall severe weather potential will begin
to decrease as storms move into northwest Arkansas late this evening
although a few strong storms could persist. In addition to the
severe thunderstorm potential, localized heavy rainfall and flash
flooding are possible through the evening hours.  The heavier
precipitation will shift east of northwest Arkansas between Midnight
and 3 AM.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
THURSDAY...No Hazards.
FRIDAY...High Wind Potential.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A reinforcing cold front will pass Thursday night with gusty
northerly winds and cooler temperatures on Friday. Dry and cooler
weather continues through the weekend with warmer temperatures and
a return to southerly winds by early next week.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Nov 10, 7:48 PM CST, 26 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
748 PM CST Wed Nov 10 2021

OKZ056-057-061-062-110215-
Craig OK-Rogers OK-Nowata OK-Mayes OK-
748 PM CST Wed Nov 10 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Craig, northeastern
Rogers, northern Mayes and eastern Nowata Counties through 815 PM
CST...

At 748 PM CST, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 12 miles east of Lenapah to near Chelsea to near
Tiawah. Movement was east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Claremore...                      Vinita...
Pryor...                          Pryor Creek...
Chelsea...                        Langley...
Adair...                          Welch...
Ketchum...                        Spavinaw...
Foyil...                          Bluejacket...
Disney...                         Big Cabin...
Pensacola...                      Hoot Owl...
Cherokee State Park...            White Oak...
Spavinaw State Park...            Strang...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 249 and 293.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CST for
northeastern Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3699 9504 3697 9504 3695 9500 3652 9500
      3633 9508 3627 9561 3653 9547 3699 9546
      3700 9501
TIME...MOT...LOC 0148Z 268DEG 33KT 3689 9542 3654 9541 3628 9555

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Lacy

Local storm report, Nov 10, 7:50 PM CST, 24 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
750 PM CST WED NOV 10 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0713 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 E TULSA               36.13N 95.90W
11/10/2021                   TULSA              OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            SOCIAL MEDIA REPORT WITH PICTURE OF LARGE
            TREE DOWNED BY THUNDERSTORM WINDS.

&&

Local storm report, Nov 10, 7:55 PM CST, 19 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
755 PM CST WED NOV 10 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0748 PM     HAIL             3 SW BIXBY              35.91N 95.92W
11/10/2021  E0.75 INCH       TULSA              OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

Special weather statement, Nov 10, 8:04 PM CST, 10 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
804 PM CST Wed Nov 10 2021

OKZ071-073-110230-
Pittsburg OK-McIntosh OK-
804 PM CST Wed Nov 10 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of south central
McIntosh and northeastern Pittsburg Counties through 830 PM CST...

At 804 PM CST, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 7 miles
north of Mcalester, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Mcalester...                      Eufaula...
Crowder...                        Canadian...
Arrowhead State Park...           Blocker...
Featherston...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CST for
southeastern Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3533 9552 3517 9545 3516 9545 3504 9540
      3503 9544 3503 9551 3501 9551 3493 9582
      3508 9588
TIME...MOT...LOC 0204Z 231DEG 29KT 3504 9577

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Lacy

Special weather statement, Nov 10, 8:06 PM CST, 8 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
806 PM CST Wed Nov 10 2021

OKZ053-110230-
Choctaw OK-
806 PM CST Wed Nov 10 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of western Choctaw
County through 830 PM CST...

At 806 PM CST, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 10 miles
south of Boswell, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Boswell...                        Soper...
Unger...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CST for
southeastern Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3387 9584 3391 9588 3393 9592 3395 9594
      3397 9594 3411 9576 3392 9561 3391 9564
      3391 9567 3388 9570 3390 9575 3389 9576
      3387 9577
TIME...MOT...LOC 0206Z 235DEG 15KT 3388 9590

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Lacy

Special weather statement, Nov 10, 8:14 PM CST, 0 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
814 PM CST Wed Nov 10 2021

OKZ057-058-062-063-110300-
Craig OK-Delaware OK-Ottawa OK-Mayes OK-
814 PM CST Wed Nov 10 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of eastern Craig,
northern Delaware, Ottawa and northeastern Mayes Counties through 900
PM CST...

At 814 PM CST, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 4 miles south of Chetopa to 3 miles northeast of
Vinita to 5 miles northwest of Salina. Movement was east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Miami...                          Vinita...
Baxter Springs...                 Jay...
Grove...                          Commerce...
Fairland...                       Afton...
Quapaw...                         Langley...
Welch...                          Bernice...
Ketchum...                        Spavinaw...
Bluejacket...                     Wyandotte...
Disney...                         Treece...
Pensacola...                      Picher...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 283 and 324.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CST for
northeastern Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3650 9462 3640 9460 3634 9527 3666 9515
      3700 9514 3700 9462
TIME...MOT...LOC 0214Z 263DEG 43KT 3698 9510 3667 9510 3634 9522

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Lacy

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tulsa, OK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Nov 10, 6:00 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Osage	15 min
Nov 10, 6:17 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Creek, Pawnee	43 min
Nov 10, 6:20 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Washington	25 min
Nov 10, 6:26 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Osage	34 min
Nov 10, 6:38 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Tulsa	37 min
Nov 10, 6:43 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Creek, Osage, Pawnee, Tulsa	47 min
Nov 10, 6:47 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Nowata, Washington	43 min
Nov 10, 6:54 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Nowata	36 min
Nov 10, 7:00 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Tulsa	30 min
Nov 10, 7:01 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Creek	29 min
Nov 10, 7:07 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Creek, Rogers, Tulsa, Wagoner	38 min
Nov 10, 7:20 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Nowata	25 min
Nov 10, 7:20 PM CST	Tornado Warning	TSA	Rogers, Tulsa	10 min
Nov 10, 7:22 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Nowata, Rogers	23 min
Nov 10, 7:23 PM CST	Areal Flood Advisory	TSA	Creek, Okmulgee, Osage, Rogers, Tulsa, Wagoner	3 hr
Nov 10, 7:26 PM CST	Tornado Warning Tornado observed	TSA	Rogers, Tulsa, Wagoner	34 min
Nov 10, 7:29 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Cherokee, Mayes, Rogers, Tulsa, Wagoner	46 min
Nov 10, 7:41 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Okmulgee	34 min
Nov 10, 7:48 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Craig	27 min
Nov 10, 7:51 PM CST	Tornado Warning	TSA	Mayes, Rogers	39 min
Nov 10, 8:04 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Pittsburg	26 min
Nov 10, 8:06 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Choctaw	24 min
Nov 10, 8:15 PM CST	Tornado Warning	TSA	Delaware, Mayes	30 min
Nov 10, 8:18 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Adair, Cherokee	57 min
Nov 10, 8:24 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Muskogee	36 min
Nov 10, 8:33 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Pittsburg	27 min
Nov 10, 8:42 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Delaware	33 min
Nov 10, 8:42 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Adair, Cherokee, Delaware	33 min
Nov 10, 8:50 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Pushmataha	25 min
Nov 10, 8:51 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Muskogee	24 min
Nov 10, 8:55 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Adair, Cherokee, Muskogee	35 min
Nov 10, 9:05 PM CST	Areal Flood Advisory	TSA	Cherokee, McIntosh, Mayes, Muskogee, Okmulgee, Wagoner	3 hr
Nov 10, 9:17 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Haskell, Muskogee, Sequoyah	43 min
Nov 10, 9:19 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Choctaw	26 min
Nov 10, 9:22 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Pushmataha	23 min
Nov 10, 9:44 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Latimer, LeFlore, Pittsburg, Pushmataha	46 min
Nov 10, 9:52 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Haskell, Sequoyah	38 min
Nov 10, 9:55 PM CST	Areal Flood Advisory	TSA	Adair, Cherokee, Haskell, LeFlore, McIntosh, Muskogee and 1 more	3 hr
Nov 10, 10:30 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	TSA	LeFlore	45 min
Nov 10, 10:49 PM CST	Areal Flood Advisory	TSA	Latimer, Pushmataha	3 hr
Nov 10, 11:17 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	TSA	LeFlore	28 min
Nov 10, 9:13 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Benton, Washington	47 min
Nov 10, 10:08 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Sebastian	37 min
Nov 10, 10:34 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Franklin, Sebastian	41 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Oklahoma, 2021 Every special weather statement in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.