Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
621 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Widely scattered thunderstorms could impact the far northwest
AR sites into the evening, with storms eventually lifting north
of the region. Evolution of storms across west TX remains in
question, with the possibility of them impact eastern OK toward
09-12Z. Expect generally MVFR cigs overnight and into Tuesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 250 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021/

DISCUSSION...
Heavy rain will remain the biggest threat over the next couple
days, with a more limited threat for a few severe storms. An upper
low over Arizona will move slowly east northeast the next couple
days before turning north northeast and weakening later Wednesday
and Wednesday night. Several rounds of showers and storms will
affect the area late tonight into early Thursday, with southeast
Oklahoma most under the gun for widespread heavy rainfall and
potential flooding. The flash flood watch will remain as is at
this time.

Storms that develop well to our west late this afternoon and
evening will organize into an organized complex and move into our
area late tonight or early Tuesday morning, with southeast
Oklahoma seeing the greatest impact, both in terms of heavy
rainfall and isolated severe potential. This process will likely
repeat itself Tuesday night/Wednesday to some degree as well.

By late this week into early next week, a strong upper ridge will
set up over the southeast U.S. Shower and storm coverage will
greatly diminish and temperatures will warm as a result, with
precipitation chances mainly confined to the western part of our
forecast area on the western periphery of the upper ridge.

Lowered pops and raised high temperatures some from the National
Blend of Models forecast late this week into early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   64  77  65  77 /  40  60  80  60
FSM   65  79  65  77 /  40  60  70  70
MLC   64  76  64  76 /  50  60  80  60
BVO   62  76  63  77 /  40  50  80  60
FYV   61  76  63  75 /  40  60  70  70
BYV   61  77  63  76 /  40  50  60  70
MKO   64  76  64  76 /  30  60  70  60
MIO   62  76  64  76 /  30  50  70  70
F10   64  76  64  76 /  50  60  80  60
HHW   65  76  64  75 /  60  70  70  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through Thursday morning for
     OKZ049-053-073-075-076.

AR...None.
&&

AVIATION.....18

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
457 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-181015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
457 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Evening and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA... Primarily along and south of Interstate 40.
	ONSET... Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA... Primarily along and south of Interstate 40.
	ONSET... Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Additional storms are expected to develop across eastern Oklahoma
and northwestern Arkansas into the evening hours. Some of these
storms could pulse up and be briefly severe with damaging wind
gusts and hail up to quarter size possible. Thunderstorm chances
then continue into the overnight hours as a larger storm complex
approaches from central Oklahoma and north Texas. These storms
will also pose a limited severe weather risk as they spread into
eastern Oklahoma early Tuesday morning. Large hail and gusty winds
will be the main threats with any severe storms through tonight.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected Tuesday
through Wednesday. Heavy rainfall is likely especially
across portions of southeast Oklahoma. Flash flooding and
mainstem river flooding are possible, with major to
moderate river flooding potential across southeast Oklahoma.
Shower and thunderstorm chances begin to lessen by Friday
and portions of the upcoming weekend may remain dry.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Snider

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
345 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021

OKZ067-068-070-172100-
Muskogee OK-Cherokee OK-Wagoner OK-
345 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN WAGONER...
SOUTHWESTERN CHEROKEE AND NORTHEASTERN MUSKOGEE COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM
CDT...

At 344 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 4 miles south of
Fort Gibson, moving north at 15 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Muskogee...                       Fort Gibson...
Okay...                           Braggs...
Pumpkin Center...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3565 9515 3566 9529 3588 9540 3586 9492
TIME...MOT...LOC 2044Z 179DEG 14KT 3573 9527

Snider

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
548 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021

OKZ069-072-172315-
Adair OK-Sequoyah OK-
548 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN SEQUOYAH AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ADAIR COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

At 547 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 5 miles east of
Brushy, moving northwest at 10 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern
Sequoyah and south central Adair Counties.

LAT...LON 3552 9468 3564 9481 3574 9455 3556 9454
TIME...MOT...LOC 2247Z 156DEG 6KT 3558 9463

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
630 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021

ARZ001-OKZ063-180000-
Benton AR-Delaware OK-
630 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN BENTON AND
NORTHEASTERN DELAWARE COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM CDT...

At 630 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 4 miles southeast of
Jay, moving northeast at 10 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Jay...                            Maysville...
Lake Eucha State Park...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3652 9462 3650 9462 3650 9459 3641 9447
      3628 9472 3638 9488 3657 9469
TIME...MOT...LOC 2330Z 221DEG 8KT 3639 9474