Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
250 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021

.DISCUSSION...
Heavy rain will remain the biggest threat over the next couple
days, with a more limited threat for a few severe storms. An upper
low over Arizona will move slowly east northeast the next couple
days before turning north northeast and weakening later Wednesday
and Wednesday night. Several rounds of showers and storms will
affect the area late tonight into early Thursday, with southeast
Oklahoma most under the gun for widespread heavy rainfall and
potential flooding. The flash flood watch will remain as is at
this time.

Storms that develop well to our west late this afternoon and
evening will organize into an organized complex and move into our
area late tonight or early Tuesday morning, with southeast
Oklahoma seeing the greatest impact, both in terms of heavy
rainfall and isolated severe potential. This process will likely
repeat itself Tuesday night/Wednesday to some degree as well.

By late this week into early next week, a strong upper ridge will
set up over the southeast U.S. Shower and storm coverage will
greatly diminish and temperatures will warm as a result, with
precipitation chances mainly confined to the western part of our
forecast area on the western periphery of the upper ridge.

Lowered pops and raised high temperatures some from the National
Blend of Models forecast late this week into early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   64  77  65  77 /  40  60  80  60
FSM   65  79  65  77 /  40  60  70  70
MLC   64  76  64  76 /  50  60  80  60
BVO   62  76  63  77 /  40  50  80  60
FYV   61  76  63  75 /  40  60  70  70
BYV   61  77  63  76 /  40  50  60  70
MKO   64  76  64  76 /  30  60  70  60
MIO   62  76  64  76 /  30  50  70  70
F10   64  76  64  76 /  50  60  80  60
HHW   65  76  64  75 /  60  70  70  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through Thursday morning for
     OKZ049-053-073-075-076.

AR...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....05

PLATE

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1242 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-181015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
1242 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Primarily areas along and south of Interstate 40.
	ONSET...Afternoon and evening.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Southeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Afternoon and overnight.

DISCUSSION...
Additional storms are expected to develop this afternoon, with
a few strong to severe storms possible. Thunderstorm chances continue
into the overnight hours as a larger storm complex approaches from
central Oklahoma and north Texas. These storms will also pose a limited
severe weather risk as they spread into eastern Oklahoma early Tuesday
morning. Large hail and gusty winds will be the main threats with any
severe storms through tonight.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm and Heavy Rain Potential.
THURSDAY through SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected Tuesday
through Wednesday. Heavy rainfall is likely especially
across portions of southeast Oklahoma. Flash flooding and
mainstem river flooding are possible, with major to
moderate river flooding potential across southeast Oklahoma.
Shower and thunderstorm chances begin to lessen by Friday
and portions of the upcoming weekend may remain dry.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
345 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021

OKZ067-068-070-172100-
Muskogee OK-Cherokee OK-Wagoner OK-
345 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN WAGONER...
SOUTHWESTERN CHEROKEE AND NORTHEASTERN MUSKOGEE COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM
CDT...

At 344 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 4 miles south of
Fort Gibson, moving north at 15 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Muskogee...                       Fort Gibson...
Okay...                           Braggs...
Pumpkin Center...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3565 9515 3566 9529 3588 9540 3586 9492
TIME...MOT...LOC 2044Z 179DEG 14KT 3573 9527

Snider