Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
623 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Areas of showers/thunderstorms continue across the region
early this evening, with an increase in coverage expected
across southeast OK into northwest AR through the evening hours.
MVFR/IFR conditions will prevail, with poorest conditions in and
near areas of thunderstorms. Expect the bulk of thunderstorms to
exit southeast OK/northwest AR after 07-08Z, with winds becoming
northernly as a cold front pushes south. Improvement in cigs
expected later Thursday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 241 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021/

DISCUSSION...
Widespread rainfall overnight through today produced a corridor of
2 to 7 inch rainfall from east central OK through NW AR. The
resultant rain cooled airmass has reinforced a sfc boundary
currently aligned just south of the Red River across NE TX.
Persist warm advection atop this boundary has maintained showers
and storms southeast of Interstate 44 through the day with more
scattered convection occurring further northwest nearer the
synoptic cold front. Short term guidance continues to suggest some
northward advance of the TX boundary into far SE OK later this
afternoon. Assuming this does occur, the resultant conditions
will become notably more favorable for severe weather along and
south of the frontal boundary w/ forecast soundings maintaining
sizable low level hodographs through the evening hours. Further
north nearer the cold front isolated occurrences of funnel clouds
have been reported within the a corridor low level vorticity and
ample low level instability. This zone will become less favorable
by evening and severe weather potential continues to appear low
along the advancing cold front later tonight.

Rainfall and associated flooding remain the most likely severe
weather hazard overnight through early Thursday. Additional
corridors of heavier rainfall are likely to develop where flooding
is ongoing and will locally worsen the situation. Additionally,
major river flooding is forecast along the Illinois basin and
adjacent floodplains will likely experience several days of
flooding.

The front clears the forecast area during the day Thursday with
rain chances focused just south of the forecast area Friday into
Saturday. Data continue to converge toward the upper low
eventually lifting northeastward near or across the forecast area
with shower and storm chances increasing Sunday. Severe weather
potential may increase Sunday afternoon beneath the cold pool
aloft.

The next wave quickly follows the Sunday system with shower and
storm chances increasing again Monday into Tuesday. Exact timing
remains uncertain but the idea of increasing storm chances and
likely some severe weather threat remains a consistent forecast
message for early next week.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1217 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021/

.UPDATE...

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

Aviation conditions will continue to be degraded through the
period, with periods of TSRA likely to affect all terminals during
the first 6 to 12 hours of the TAF. IFR/MVFR conditions will
prevail through the period, with the worst conditions found in the
stronger thunderstorms. Winds will shift from a southerly
direction to the north Wednesday morning behind the slow moving
cold front. Conditions may begin to improve some late in the
period at the NE OK terminals, with better and more widespread
improvement expected after 18Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   61  76  52  77 /  80  10   0   0
FSM   66  76  54  78 / 100  70  10  10
MLC   63  74  54  76 /  90  50  10  10
BVO   59  76  49  76 /  80  10   0   0
FYV   62  72  49  75 / 100  50   0   0
BYV   62  72  50  74 / 100  50   0   0
MKO   62  74  51  76 /  90  30  10   0
MIO   61  75  49  75 /  90  10   0   0
F10   61  74  52  76 /  90  30  10   0
HHW   65  74  57  75 / 100  80  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-
     020-029.

&&

AVIATION.....18

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
508 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-291030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
508 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

...FLOODING AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT CONTINUES...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Evening and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA... Generally along and south of Interstate 40.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA... Eastern Oklahoma and Northwestern Arkansas.
	ONSET... Ongoing.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA... Eastern Oklahoma and Northwestern Arkansas.
	ONSET... Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA... Eastern Oklahoma and Northwestern Arkansas.
	ONSET... Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms are expected to continue to develop through the
late afternoon and evening hours across eastern Oklahoma and
northwestern Arkansas ahead of a slow moving cold front that is
starting to move into northeastern Oklahoma. Heavy rainfall and
flash flooding continues to be the main concern going into the
evening and overnight hours, especially since soils are very
saturated with today's activity. It will not take much for flash
flooding to develop once again across the area. Continue to heed
road closed signs and turn around, don't drown if you encounter a
flooded roadway. Additional heavy rainfall will also affect area
rivers as well. Continue to monitor the forecast for the latest
information.

Conditions continue to remain favorable across the area for severe
weather this evening and overnight including a low threat for
tornadoes. The area of greatest concern for severe weather will
generally be along and south of Interstate 40 across southeast
Oklahoma into west-central Arkansas. The most intense storms in
this area will be capable of producing all severe weather
hazards. Shower and storm activity will gradually diminish from
northwest to southeast through the night as the cold front moves
through.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
FRIDAY...No Hazards.
SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms will gradually end from the northwest
Thursday. The main upper level storm system will finally move
northeast out of southwest Texas this weekend and across our area
by Sunday, bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms late
Saturday night and Sunday.

Another storm system will keep the chances for showers and
thunderstorms going into early next week.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Snider

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
210 PM CDT WED APR 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0146 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 SW MOUNTAINBURG       35.60N 94.20W
04/28/2021                   CRAWFORD           AR   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            A SECTION OF STATE HWY 282 HAS BEEN CLOSED
            DUE TO HIGH WATER.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
241 PM CDT WED APR 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0239 PM     FLASH FLOOD      LEACH                   36.20N 94.92W
04/28/2021                   DELAWARE           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            US HIGHWAY 412 CLOSED FROM LEACH TO KANSAS.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
246 PM CDT WED APR 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 S INDIANOLA           35.04N 95.77W
04/28/2021                   PITTSBURG          OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DAMAGE TO A SHED, TREES. GARAGE DOOR BLOWN
            IN. POSSIBLE TORNADO. REPORTS FROM EMERGENCY
            MANAGEMENT AND STORM CHASERS.

&&

KAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
257 PM CDT WED APR 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 AM     TSTM WND DMG     OAK GROVE               36.46N 93.45W
04/28/2021                   CARROLL            AR   PUBLIC

            DAMAGE TO A BARN. PHOTO POSTED ON OFFICE FACEBOOK PAGE.
            TIME ESTIMATED VIA RADAR.

&&

KAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
435 PM CDT WED APR 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0612 AM     TORNADO          3 NNW STILWELL          35.85N 94.65W
04/28/2021                   ADAIR              OK   NWS STORM SURVEY

            EF1 TORNADO UPROOTED TREES, DAMAGED AND
            DESTROYED SEVERAL BARNS. SEVERAL HOMES
            DAMAGED.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
719 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

OKZ076-290100-
Le Flore OK-
719 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN LE FLORE COUNTY
UNTIL 800 PM CDT...

At 719 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 6 miles northwest of
Mountain Fork, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern Le
Flore County.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3467 9465 3494 9446 3493 9444 3462 9446
      3460 9449
TIME...MOT...LOC 0019Z 220DEG 21KT 3469 9453