River Flood Advisory 20, NWS Tulsa, OK

828 
WGUS84 KTSA 281721
FLSTSA

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1221 PM CDT Fri May 28 2021

...The Flood Advisory is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...Arkansas...

  Lee Creek near Van Buren affecting Crawford and Sequoyah Counties.

ARC033-OKC135-281830-
/O.CAN.KTSA.FL.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-210528T1721Z/
/VBRA4.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
1221 PM CDT Fri May 28 2021

...The Flood Advisory for the Lee Creek near Van Buren has been 
cancelled...

The Flood Advisory is cancelled for
  the Lee Creek near Van Buren.
* At 11:43 AM CDT Friday the stage was 396.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 401.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to continue falling this 
  afternoon.


&&

LAT...LON 3554 9437 3542 9437 3542 9442 3554 9452

$$

MAB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
638 AM CDT Fri May 28 2021

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR to MVFR conditions at the northwest Arkansas and southeast
Oklahoma sites will improve to VFR later this morning. VFR
conditions will then prevail through the forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 317 AM CDT Fri May 28 2021/

DISCUSSION...
Overnight storms have cleared the area leaving behind a few
showers along the Red River and slightly cooler, drier, and stable
airmass for the remaining part of the area in its wake. Mid level
heights will gradually rise through the day today and into
Saturday as well in the wake of the passing storm system. This
will tend to keep our shower/storm chances at bay through at least
tomorrow. With that said, there is a low chance for showers and
storm development today thanks to a very subtle short wave moving
in on the back side of the exiting trough. The limiting factor
will be the meager amount of moisture and instability this
afternoon which will largely be wiped out by the true cold front
(characterized by the lowering dew points near I-44) that is
currently passing through the area. As a result, opted to keep a
chance for showers across parts of the area for today, mainly
along and near the Red River where this front may be slow to
clear.

Friday night into Saturday will be dry and unseasonably cool with
mid level heights rising overhead. With skies clearing Friday
night, temperatures in the 40s will be likely across far NW AR and
far NE OK. The sun will continue to shine through the day
Saturday resulting in a rather pleasant day with light E to NE
winds.

Low level moisture starts to make a return Sunday as a surface
high pressure moves into the Great Lakes region allowing for Gulf
moisture to advance into the area. As moisture returns, so will
our shower and storm chances. Sunday will see shower and storm
chances slowly increasing from west to east across parts of
eastern Oklahoma. Memorial Day will likely see the first day of
more widespread rainfall with isolated to scattered thunderstorms.
Severe weather is currently not expected but be prepared and have
a plan to take shelter from lightning if you have any outdoor
activities planned.

The rest of the upcoming work week will feature daily chances for
showers and thunderstorms thanks to tropical moisture getting
pumped into the region and a trough that will bring several small
short waves across the region. There is decent agreement among the
guidance for next week synoptically, but mesoscale features will
likely play a big role in shower and storm chances this upcoming
week. As a result of not being able to resolve these mesoscale
features quite yet at this range, opted to lean a little
conservative with PoPs this upcoming week from what NBM PoPs
initialized with. In any case, most if not all locations across E
OK and NW AR will see at least some precipitation by the end of
next week. Given the expectedly high PWAT values, locally heavy
rainfall will be possible across parts of the area which could
lead to additional localized flash and river flooding problems. A
severe storm or two may be possible by mid week but there are
still many uncertainties. Future forecasts will continue to
monitor the heavy rainfall and any severe weather potential for
the upcoming week.

Snider

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.

&&

AVIATION.....05

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
500 AM CDT Fri May 28 2021

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-291000-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
500 AM CDT Fri May 28 2021

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA... Far Southeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET... This Afternoon.

DISCUSSION...
Lingering showers will continue along the Red River this morning
before dissipating by mid morning. A cold front currently located
near Interstate 44 will continue to push southward through the
day today and may trigger a few storms along and near the Red
River in far southeast Oklahoma. Any severe storms will likely
stay south of the Red River.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Spotter Activation Not Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
SATURDAY...No Hazards.
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms will likely impact a good chunk of the
area for Sunday and Memorial Day. Be prepared and have a plan to
seek shelter from dangerous cloud to ground lightning if you have
any outdoor activities scheduled. Severe weather is currently not
anticipated for the holiday weekend.

Storm chances will return next week, but the potential for
widespread organized severe weather appears low at this point. A
weak storm system could bring some locally heavy rain potential by
midweek next week.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Snider

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
401 AM CDT FRI MAY 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0407 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SSE SPERRY            36.24N 95.96W
05/27/2021                   TULSA              OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTS TREES DOWN. TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

TDS