River Flood Advisory 16, NWS Tulsa, OK

546 
WGUS84 KTSA 271954
FLSTSA

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
254 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021

...The Flood Advisory is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Illinois River near Tahlequah affecting Cherokee County.

...The National Weather Service in Tulsa has issued a Flood Advisory 
for the following rivers in Oklahoma...

  Illinois River at Chewey affecting Adair, Cherokee and Delaware 
  Counties.

  Flint Creek near Kansas affecting Cherokee and Delaware Counties.


OKC021-272100-
/O.CAN.KTSA.FL.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-210527T1954Z/
/TALO2.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
254 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021

...The Flood Advisory for the Illinois River near Tahlequah has been 
cancelled...

The Flood Advisory is cancelled for
  the Illinois River near Tahlequah.
* At 2:30 PM CDT Thursday the stage was 6.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage early 
  Saturday morning to a crest of 11.6 feet early Saturday afternoon. 
  It will then fall below flood stage Saturday evening. Please see 
  the Flood Warning for further information.


&&

LAT...LON 3611 9487 3606 9481 3576 9487 3576 9496
      3603 9496

$$

OKC001-021-041-280800-
/O.NEW.KTSA.FL.Y.0018.210527T1954Z-210530T0600Z/
/CWYO2.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
254 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021

The National Weather Service in Tulsa has issued a

* Flood Advisory for
  the Illinois River at Chewey.
* From this afternoon to early Sunday morning.
* At 2:15 PM CDT Thursday the stage was 5.8 feet.
* Action stage is 9.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 10.6 feet 
  early Saturday morning, which is above action stage but below 
  flood stage.
* Impact...At 9.0 feet, no flooding occurs but all recreational 
  floating along the Illinois River ceases due to strong turbulence.


&&

LAT...LON 3619 9472 3611 9471 3606 9481 3611 9487

$$

OKC021-041-280800-
/O.NEW.KTSA.FL.Y.0017.210527T1954Z-210528T1800Z/
/KNSO2.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
254 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021

The National Weather Service in Tulsa has issued a

* Flood Advisory for
  the Flint Creek near Kansas.
* From this afternoon to early tomorrow afternoon.
* At 2:30 PM CDT Thursday the stage was 6.6 feet.
* Action stage is 8.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 8.8 feet 
  just after midnight tonight, which is above action stage but below 
  flood stage.
* Impact...At 8.0 feet, Flint Creek threatens individual campsites 
  and becomes dangerous for recreational floating.


&&

LAT...LON 3629 9461 3620 9456 3607 9482 3619 9483

$$

Lacy

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
548 AM CDT Thu May 27 2021

...UPDATE...

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

Convective forecast is slightly clearer than with the last TAF
set, with most data settling in on the late afternoon/evening
development moving from north to south across the area. Will keep
the idea from the 06Z TAFs, outlining a TEMPO group window
featuring near severe wind gusts and IFR conditions within a
larger prevailing group with a VCTS mention. Recent data do,
however, continue to show isolated to scattered early afternoon
development and will slightly widen the time window for the VCTS
mention as a result. MVFR conditions and a shift to more north to
northwesterly winds will occur in the wake of the complex,
although VFR conditions should begin to return to the NE OK
terminals late in the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 323 AM CDT Thu May 27 2021/

DISCUSSION...
Certainly not a clear cut situation today, as ongoing storms to
our north, convective outflow boundary(s), and a potential
convectively induced MCV over southwest OK muddle the early day
convective chances. The more recent HRRR runs maintain some weak
convection across parts of northeast OK this morning, with some
strengthening possible later this morning as storms move into
parts of northwest AR.

Assuming that the morning convection isn't too disruptive, expect
an extremely unstable (SBCAPES 3500-4000 J/KG) and uncapped
atmosphere south of a frontal boundary draped across southeast KS
into northwest OK this afternoon. Convection will likely develop
by early afternoon along the boundary in KS, with some discrete
storm development into parts of northeast OK by mid-afternoon. The
forecast instability and increasing bulk shear will support
supercells with the initial activity, with very large hail,
damaging winds and a few tornadoes possible. Storms will likely
develop into one or more clusters by late afternoon, and then
propagate south/southeast through the forecast area during the
evening/overnight hours. The primary threat during this time will
be damaging winds, with at least a low chance of leading edge
tornadoes. The MCS is expected to push south of the forecast area
late tonight.

May have some scattered showers/storms across southeast OK on
Friday, near and to the north of the frontal boundary across
northern TX. Otherwise, cooler and drier conditions are expected
through the weekend as surface high pressure builds into OK/AR.
May see some morning lows in the 40s both Saturday and Sunday
mornings across parts of far northeast OK and northwest AR, with
highs in the 70s areawide.

The western U.S. upper trof will slowly slide into the Plains by
early next week, with rain chances returning and lingering for
much of the week.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

AVIATION.....22

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
453 AM CDT Thu May 27 2021

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-281000-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
453 AM CDT Thu May 27 2021

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

TORNADO.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Mainly northeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...After 3 pm.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Late morning to early afternoon.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Northeast Oklahoma by late afternoon.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...This afternoon.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...This afternoon.

DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms may develop as early as late morning across parts
of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Given the increasing
instability, a few of these storms could be severe.

The more significant development is expected across southeast
Kansas into parts of northeast Oklahoma by mid to late afternoon.
These initial storms will pose a risk of tornadoes, damaging
winds and very large hail. Storms should eventually develop into
a complex and push southeast across the area Thursday evening
and overnight. Damaging winds will become the primary threat,
although there will be at least a low chance of tornadoes along
the leading edge of the line of storms. The severe weather threat
will end from north to south overnight.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
SATURDAY...No Hazards.
SUNDAY through WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms may linger into early Friday across
portions of southeast Oklahoma. Severe weather is not expected.

After and dry and cool weekend, shower and thunderstorm chances
return by early next week.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.