Areal Flood Warning 5, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
214 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021

.DISCUSSION...
Widespread strong to severe thunderstorms ongoing are expected to
continue across eastern Oklahoma into the evening hours. It
appears there will be multiple rounds of storms for northeastern
Oklahoma over the next several hours with all hazards possible
including a few tornadoes and some very large hail possible as the
atmosphere becomes even more unstable this afternoon. An outflow
boundary is currently emanating from the convection north of I-44
and is propagating southward toward the I-44 corridor. Where this
boundary sets up later this afternoon will serve as a focus for an
enhanced tornado risk somewhere over northeastern Oklahoma.
Current low level wind fields aren't too supportive of a big
tornado threat, but some localized areas near the boundary will
become more supportive as low level winds back some toward this
evening. One of the driving factors will be storm mode by the
time, as the storms transition to a southeastward advancing MCS
this evening and into the overnight hours. If storms can remain
discrete enough later this afternoon, a localized tornado risk
will exist along and south of the outflow boundary through the
evening hours. Tornadoes will remain possible along the leading
edge of the line as it moves into western Arkansas and far
southeast Oklahoma later this evening and tonight. The flooding
risk will be of concern this afternoon and evening as well as
storms train over the same areas and more storms develop and move
through with the cold front currently moving into northwest
Oklahoma. Anomalously high PWAT values will favor very high
rainfall rates and locally 5-6 inches of rain will be possible
through this evening in some locations.

Past tonight, the front will largely push south of the forecast
area by Friday morning ushering in some cooler and drier
conditions for the holiday weekend. A few showers and storms will
remain possible across far southern Oklahoma throughout the day
Friday, but any severe risk looks like it will stay south of the
Red River Friday afternoon. Surface high pressure will settle into
the area Friday night and Saturday morning. That along with some
clearing skies will allow temperatures to drop into the 40s for
some locations in northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, with
possibly some mid to even lower 40s possible for some of the
normally cooler sites of northwest Arkansas. The unseasonably cool
airmass will remain in place through the weekend with highs
largely in the lower to mid 70s and dry weather through at least
Sunday across the region. Rain chances return by Monday as another
slow moving trough digs into the Desert Southwest. Most of the
rain should remain to our west on Monday, but better chances
arrive Monday night into Tuesday. Severe potential appears to be
pretty marginal for now for the first part of the week. Shower and
storm chances will continue through the rest of the week, with
some better severe potential returning by next Thursday or so as
better instability returns by then.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   82  59  73  52 /  90  90  10  10
FSM   87  66  79  55 /  50 100  10  10
MLC   84  63  76  55 /  30 100  20  20
BVO   81  54  71  46 /  90  60   0   0
FYV   81  57  72  45 /  80 100  10   0
BYV   81  58  70  46 /  80 100  10   0
MKO   83  60  73  52 /  70 100  10  10
MIO   80  55  70  47 /  90  90   0   0
F10   82  60  73  52 /  70 100  10  10
HHW   84  67  80  59 /  10  90  30  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flash Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Friday for OKZ054>072.

AR...Flash Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Friday for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020.

&&

LONG TERM....99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
321 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-281015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
321 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021

...SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and east-central Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Critical.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Mainly north of Interstate 40.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
A significant risk of severe weather exists this afternoon into
the early evening across northeast and east central Oklahoma, with
an elevated threat across northwest Arkansas and southeast
Oklahoma tonight. Discrete storms this afternoon into the early
evening will be capable of producing tornadoes, very large hail to
2 inches or greater in diameter, and damaging winds. Any storm
that can interact with any lingering boundaries could potentially
produce a strong tornado. Storms will eventually congeal into a
line or complex and move into western Arkansas and southeast
Oklahoma tonight, with the threat transitioning to damaging winds
to around 70 mph over wider swaths. A low tornado threat would
exist on the leading edge of any bows that can surge east to
northeast. Storms should exit the region around or shortly after
midnight tonight.

Multiple rounds of heavy rain producing thunderstorms are possible
mainly along and north of I-40 thru early evening, and could lead
to some flash flooding. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible
with the storm complex south of I-40 tonight, but the system will
be more progressive by then, limiting the heavy rain potential.
Some main-stem rivers may experience flooding as well as runoff
from this event occurs.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...No Hazards.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

Limited thunderstorm potential will exist down near the Red River
on Friday, but the best severe weather potential will be south of
the river in Texas.

Storm chances will return next week, but the potential for
widespread organized severe weather appears low at this point. A
weak storm system could bring some locally heavy rain potential by
midweek next week.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
549 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021

ARZ001-002-010-011-OKZ069-272330-
Carroll AR-Madison AR-Benton AR-Washington AR-Adair OK-
549 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BENTON...NORTHWESTERN MADISON...
NORTHWESTERN CARROLL...NORTHERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN ADAIR
COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

At 549 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 3 miles north of Bella Vista to 3 miles north of
Northwest Arkansas Regional Airport to 2 miles west of Watts.
Movement was east at 50 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Fayetteville...                   Springdale...
Rogers...                         Bentonville...
Siloam Springs...                 Eureka Springs...
Bella Vista...                    Lowell...
Farmington...                     Pea Ridge...
Gentry...                         Tontitown...
Bethel Heights...                 Cave Springs...
Westville...                      Greenland...
West Siloam Springs...            Highfill...
Garfield...                       Gateway...

This includes Interstate 49 between mile markers 58 and 93.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for northeastern
and east central Oklahoma.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
northwestern Arkansas.

LAT...LON 3600 9411 3599 9480 3603 9480 3616 9461
      3616 9456 3619 9457 3633 9438 3650 9439
      3650 9369 3631 9367
TIME...MOT...LOC 2249Z 272DEG 44KT 3651 9432 3633 9431 3612 9461

69

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
602 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 ENE OWASSO            36.29N 95.81W
05/27/2021                   ROGERS             OK   NEWSPAPER

            ROAD CLOSED DUE TO ROADWAY BEING WASHED AWAY
            AT 96TH STREET NORTH AND 147TH EAST AVENUE.
            RELAYED ON TWITTER.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
614 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0612 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 ENE OWASSO            36.29N 95.81W
05/27/2021                   ROGERS             OK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            OFF DUTY NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTS ROAD CLOSED
            DUE TO ROAD WASHING AWAY.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
619 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0553 PM     TSTM WND DMG     OKAY                    35.85N 95.32W
05/27/2021                   WAGONER            OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            SEVERAL POWER POLES KNOCKED DOWN.

&&

BH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
623 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0622 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 NE OWASSO             36.31N 95.81W
05/27/2021                   ROGERS             OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            VIDEO RELAYED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA OF ROAD
            CLOSURE AND CAR STALLED AT 106TH N AND 145TH
            E IN OWASSO.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
634 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021

OKZ068-069-280015-
Adair OK-Cherokee OK-
634 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN ADAIR AND EAST
CENTRAL CHEROKEE COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM CDT...

At 634 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 3 miles southwest of
Tahlequah, moving east at 30 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Tahlequah...                      Stilwell...
Hulbert...                        Eldon...
Proctor...                        Christie...
Maryetta...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for northeastern
and east central Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3580 9512 3598 9513 3607 9467 3579 9464
TIME...MOT...LOC 2334Z 262DEG 24KT 3589 9503

69