Special Weather Statement, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
627 PM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 PM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021

The main focus for this forecast is the chance for storms today
and tonight.

This afternoon, a weakly defined stationary front was located
across northern KS and extended into southeast NE and southern
IA. The stationary front will remain across northern KS into
southeast NE through most of the afternoon hours but will begin to
push southward this evening. Thunderstorms continue to develop
along the front as elevated instability and steep lapse rates
combine with weak convergence along the boundary. The SPC
mesoanalysis page has about 5000 J/Kg CAPE in a nearly uncapped
environment near the boundary. Effective and 0-6 Km shear on the
other hand appears to be minimal with values of 20 knots or less.
Therefore, some pulse type storms this afternoon and early
evening could become severe with damaging wind gusts to 60 mph and
quarter size hail. However, if any updraft becomes more organized
with mesoscale rotation, there may be a larger hail threat with
the very high CAPE values. Models are all over the place when it
comes to the evolution of the front/storms this evening and
tonight. Continued development along the boundary across northern
Kansas this afternoon, followed by a congealing of storms into a
line segment along the main synoptic front this evening is the
most likely scenario based on the 12 UTC suite of data
available. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms could
continue along and north of the front into Friday morning. There
may be some brief heavy rainfall within the line of storms
tonight.

A weak mid-level wave may swing through northeast KS Friday and
Friday night. Off and on showers and thunderstorms are possible
through the day Friday as a result. Shower and thunderstorm
chances should gradually decrease through the overnight hours as
the front, mid-level wave and associated lift exit the area. Northeast
winds, cloud cover and periods of showers and thunderstorms will
keep temperatures quite a bit cooler Friday with highs in the low
to mid 80s.

Showers and thunderstorms are possible again Saturday as return
flow kicks in and another mid-level wave swings through the
northwest flow aloft. Cooler temperatures and occasional showers
and thunderstorms will highlight the forecast through mid-week as
we remain under the influence of northwest flow aloft and lee
surface troughing.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021

While showers and storms have generally avoided the main TAF sites
so far, they should become more widespread again by the late
evening hours. Ceilings will mostly remain VFR, but visibilities
in the heavier showers and storms could become MVFR and locally
worse. Conditions gradually improve by late tonight, with any
leftover showers or storms exiting by late tomorrow morning. In
general, winds will be from the northeast around 5 kts behind the
cold front, but will be widely variable around any stronger
convection.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ010>012-022>024-
026-036>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

DISCUSSION...Jones
AVIATION...Reese

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
214 PM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021

KSZ010>012-022>024-026-036>040-054>056-058-059-131915-
Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Riley-Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Geary-
Morris-Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-
Anderson-
214 PM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A Heat Advisory is in effect today with heat indicies around 105
expected. See weather.gov/top for more details.

Strong to severe storms will be possible during the late
afternoon and evening hours. Damaging winds, frequent lightening
and heavy rain will be the main threats. Large hail may be
possible in the strongest storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

KSZ008-009-020-021-034-035-131915-
Republic-Washington-Cloud-Clay-Ottawa-Dickinson-
214 PM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Strong to severe storms will be possible during the late
afternoon and evening hours. Damaging winds, frequent lightening
and heavy rain will be the main threats. Large hail may be
possible in the strongest storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
716 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0714 PM     HAIL             5 ENE BERRYTON          38.96N 95.54W
08/12/2021  E1.00 INCH       SHAWNEE            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
719 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0714 PM     HAIL             5 ENE BERRYTON          38.96N 95.54W
08/12/2021  E1.00 INCH       SHAWNEE            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
731 PM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021

KSZ040-130100-
Douglas-
731 PM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Douglas
County through 800 PM CDT...

At 730 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Clinton Lake, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lawrence, Lecompton, Clinton and Clinton Lake.

This includes Kansas Turnpike between mile markers 189 and 205.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3889 9550 3906 9550 3906 9548 3907 9546
      3907 9542 3903 9535 3903 9533 3904 9530
      3903 9529 3905 9528 3904 9519 3897 9519
      3896 9517 3898 9516 3893 9514
TIME...MOT...LOC 0030Z 258DEG 16KT 3897 9539

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Reese