Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
332 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

.NEAR TERM [Through Sunday]...

Largest concerns through the remainder of today will be strong
thunderstorm wind gusts due to a combination of strong instability
and dry air in the upper levels above 600mb as an upper level trough
drops southeast into the area. This meteorological setup can lead to
enhanced microbursts in any thunderstorms, and we've already seen a
few storms with winds near 40-50 mph earlier this afternoon. With
mid-level flow expected to be elevated as a trough drops into the
area, some storm organization is possible with 20-30 knots of
shear anticipated to develop. Hail is also possible given the
strong instability. While flooding prospects look low, we'll need
to monitor for any training of storms depending on how outflow
boundaries from these storms become oriented through the remainder
of the evening.

Storm coverage should lessen after midnight and push offshore as the
trough continues pushing south. However, another round is likely to
develop again on Sunday afternoon as cooler upper level temperatures
in association with center of the upper level trough move over the
area. Plenty of instability is expected to remain in place, though
with prevailing flow out of the north again on Sunday, expecting
storm coverage to be a little bit less across our AL/GA counties and
more focused across the FL Panhandle and Big Bend. Similar threats
in thunderstorms, strong wind gusts, and perhaps some hail, are
expected again tomorrow given the slightly cooler and drier mid-
level conditions.

.SHORT TERM [Sunday Night Through Monday Night]...

The upper level trough will continue to meander over the southeast
US as the upper level pattern over the US becomes increasingly
amplified. Drier mid-level air will slowly attempt to filter into
our northern zones by Monday afternoon, but with plenty of lower
level moisture in place, and convergence along the seabreeze,
scattered showers and storms are expected again on Monday
afternoon into Monday evening.

.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

There are lots of question marks through the long term period as
the pattern becomes more amplified. The upper level trough that
brought widespread showers and thunderstorms over the weekend
will begin to lift out as a strong trough moves through the
eastern portions of the US. Drier northwest flow is likely to
prevail through the middle of the week, but isolated showers and
storms can't be ruled out along our coastal locations and slightly
inland, especially if the initial upper level low moves out
slower than forecast.

Northwest flow will potentially weaken by the end of the weak as
our eyes start to turn to the tropics. The National Hurricane
Center is currently giving an area of disturbed weather across the
southwest Gulf a 40% chance to develop in the next 5 days. While
it is much too soon to determine the specific and detailed
evolution of this area of low pressure, ensemble guidance does
support the possibility for this disturbed weather moving north into
the central or western portions of the Gulf of Mexico next week.
What happens then is anyone's guess, but with our area likely
being on the east side of this disturbed weather, shower and
thunderstorm chances could increase late next week, along with
potentially rough seas for any folks with activities on the water.
Regardless of development, it's a reminder that we are in our
hurricane season and it's never a bad time to check on your
hurricane kits and readiness plans.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Sunday]

Widespread showers and storms will affect most terminals through
the remainder of the afternoon bringing localized IFR conditions
at times and brief 30-40 knot wind gusts. Outside of these
thunderstorms, VFR conditions should prevail through the TAF
period. Best coverage for storms will be across KDHN/KVLD and
south though KABY does have a low end chance for storms later this
afternoon. Coverage of storms diminishes tonight with another
round expected again on Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...

Elevated winds and seas expected through the next few days along
with daily chances for showers and storms, especially in the
evening and early morning hours as storms move off the land. Some
reduction in winds and seas, and rain chances, possible in the
middle of the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Low fire weather concerns anticipated the next few days as wet
conditions will remain in place over the region.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

There are no widespread flooding concerns expected for the next
several days. However, with a fairly high coverage of showers and
thunderstorms expected through this weekend, localized pockets of
heavy rain are likely. We cannot rule out brief flooding in urban
and poor drainage areas with the heavier storms.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report
significant weather conditions and/or damage (while following all
local, state, and CDC guidelines) by calling the office or tweeting
us .

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   74  94  71  93  72 /  60  70  30  40  20
Panama City   75  90  75  90  76 /  50  50  30  40  20
Dothan        72  91  72  91  72 /  60  50  20  40  10
Albany        73  92  71  94  73 /  60  50  20  40  20
Valdosta      71  91  70  91  71 /  60  70  30  40  20
Cross City    76  90  71  89  72 /  70  70  50  50  30
Apalachicola  76  89  75  87  76 /  50  50  40  30  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Dobbs
SHORT TERM...Dobbs
LONG TERM...Dobbs
AVIATION...Dobbs
MARINE...Dobbs
FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs
HYDROLOGY...DVD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
236 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

FLZ019-GAZ159>161-121915-
Madison FL-Brooks GA-Lanier GA-Lowndes GA-
236 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN MADISON...LANIER...
LOWNDES AND SOUTHEASTERN BROOKS COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

At 235 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Lakeland to near I-75 At Exit 16. Movement
was southeast at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Lake Park, Lakeland, Valdosta, Moody Air Force Base, I-75 At Exit 16,
Remerton, Meigs, Dasher, Naylor, Courthouse, Greenwood, Barretts,
Twin Lakes, Hansell, Valdosta Regional Airport, Kinderlou, I-75 At
Exit 5, Clyattville, Blue Springs and I-75 At Exit 11.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3086 8300 3085 8301 3085 8309 3083 8309
      3083 8310 3080 8310 3080 8313 3063 8314
      3063 8329 3062 8327 3059 8326 3055 8326
      3052 8324 3049 8324 3078 8348 3113 8304
      3108 8297 3087 8297
TIME...MOT...LOC 1835Z 316DEG 26KT 3102 8303 3077 8335

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
245 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

FLZ012-112-121930-
Coastal Bay FL-Inland Bay FL-
245 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL BAY COUNTY UNTIL 330 PM
EDT/230 PM CDT/...

At 245 PM EDT/145 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 8 miles northeast of Panama City Beach, moving east at
20 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Panama City, Lynn Haven, Callaway, Springfield, Hiland Park, Parker,
Nixon, Bayhead, West Bay, Southport, Cedar Grove, Dirego Park, Bay
Harbor, Recota Beach, College Station, Bayou George, Camp Flowers,
Cairo, Brannonville and Millville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3043 8581 3033 8539 3031 8539 3007 8549
      3028 8590
TIME...MOT...LOC 1845Z 290DEG 18KT 3032 8578

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
248 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

FLZ028-029-034-121930-
Inland Taylor FL-Inland Dixie FL-Lafayette FL-
248 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN LAFAYETTE...
NORTHEASTERN DIXIE AND EAST CENTRAL TAYLOR COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM
EDT...

At 248 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 15
miles north of Steinhatchee, moving southeast at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Cross City, Tennille, Cooks Hammock, Hines, Clara, Cross City
Airport, Salem and Carbur.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2984 8348 3000 8339 2985 8294 2961 8308
TIME...MOT...LOC 1848Z 297DEG 20KT 2989 8337

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
310 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

ALZ068-069-FLZ009>011-013-016-GAZ142-143-155>157-122015-
Geneva AL-Houston AL-Holmes FL-Gadsden FL-Calhoun FL-Jackson FL-
Washington FL-Miller GA-Decatur GA-Seminole GA-Grady GA-Early GA-
310 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN GENEVA AND
SOUTHEASTERN HOUSTON COUNTIES IN SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...JACKSON AND
NORTHEASTERN CALHOUN COUNTIES IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...NORTHERN
GADSDEN COUNTY IN BIG BEND OF FLORIDA...NORTHEASTERN HOLMES AND
NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...
DECATUR...SOUTHERN GRADY...WESTERN MILLER...SEMINOLE AND SOUTHWESTERN
EARLY COUNTIES IN SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA UNTIL 415 PM EDT/315 PM
CDT/...

At 310 PM EDT/210 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 14 miles east of Colquitt
to 7 miles southeast of Donalsonville to 11 miles northeast of
Marianna to 6 miles south of Hartford. Movement was southeast at 25
mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Colquitt, Cottonwood, Havana, Marianna, Chipley, Graceville,
Bainbridge, Donalsonville, Quincy, Dothan, Hartford, Taylor, Ashford,
Slocomb, Whigham, Chattahoochee, West Bainbridge, Greensboro, Malone
and Sneads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3115 8585 3115 8534 3124 8514 3124 8486
      3078 8412 3068 8425 3068 8430 3065 8430
      3061 8435 3057 8471 3058 8488 3060 8489
      3061 8492 3058 8497 3059 8543
TIME...MOT...LOC 1910Z 314DEG 23KT 3115 8450 3097 8477 3092 8514 3101
8569

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
325 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

FLZ012>014-112-122015-
Coastal Bay FL-Inland Bay FL-Calhoun FL-Inland Gulf FL-
325 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN GULF...EAST CENTRAL
BAY AND SOUTHWESTERN CALHOUN COUNTIES IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA
UNTIL 415 PM EDT/315 PM CDT/...

At 325 PM EDT/225 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 8 miles northeast of Callaway, moving east at 25 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Callaway, Springfield, Stonemill Creek, Wewahitchka, Nixon,
Honeyville, Cedar Grove, Chipola Cutoff, College Station, Bayou
George, Cairo, Brannonville, Chipola Park, Majette and Dalkeith.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3035 8554 3023 8509 3021 8510 3022 8511
      3017 8514 3014 8513 3013 8514 3012 8513
      3011 8515 3010 8514 3009 8515 3008 8514
      3004 8514 3003 8512 2996 8515 3017 8563
TIME...MOT...LOC 1925Z 292DEG 22KT 3023 8549

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
338 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

FLZ016-017-026-027-122030-
Liberty FL-Gadsden FL-Inland Wakulla FL-Leon FL-
338 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN WAKULLA...CENTRAL
GADSDEN...CENTRAL LIBERTY AND WESTERN LEON COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM
EDT...

At 338 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Tallahassee Comm College to near Greensboro.
Movement was southeast at 15 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Midway, Woodville, Quincy, Tallahassee, Havana, Crawfordville,
Greensboro, Florida State University, Florida A And M, Tallahassee
Comm College, Doak Campbell Stadium, Wakulla, Lake Bradford, Jewel
Fire Tower, Shadeville, Leon Sinks, Juniper, Douglas City, Gaither
Community Center and Wakulla Springs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3058 8488 3062 8435 3020 8410 3018 8477
TIME...MOT...LOC 1938Z 329DEG 13KT 3045 8434 3050 8471