Special Marine Warning 112, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
137 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Sunday]

Widespread showers and storms will affect most terminals through
the remainder of the afternoon bringing localized IFR conditions
at times and brief 30-40 knot wind gusts. Outside of these
thunderstorms, VFR conditions should prevail through the TAF
period. Best coverage for storms will be across KDHN/KVLD and
south though KABY does have a low end chance for storms later this
afternoon. Coverage of storms diminishes tonight with another
round expected again on Sunday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [931 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

A fairly high coverage of showers and thunderstorms is expected from
late morning through this evening as an upper level disturbance
moves southeastward with northwest flow aloft. The airmass is
expected to be strongly unstable with SBCAPE near 3000 j/kg and
DCAPE values near 1000 j/kg. Localized enhancement of the mid-level
flow will aid in the potential for organized multicells to develop
with gusty winds, a few of which could be marginally severe. Highs
will generally be in the upper 80s to lower 90s with overnight lows
in the 70s.

.SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday]...

A few impulses embedded within the NW flow aloft will rotate
across the trough over the eastern CONUS through the short term
period. Surface high pressure to the south will keep winds mostly
westerly with PWs ranging from 1.8 to 2.0 inches. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected both Sunday and Monday, with higher
coverage expected on Sunday. Greater coverage is generally
expected over the eastern portions of the area where deeper
moisture resides. A combination of the seabreeze, leftover
boundaries from earlier convection, and showers and storms moving
into the area from the NW to N will all contribute to shower and
thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening hours. A
bit of drier air could limit coverage somewhat on Monday. High
temperatures are forecast in the low to mid 90s with low
temperatures in the low to mid 70s.

.LONG TERM [Monday Night Through Saturday]...

The large scale pattern remains fairly steady through the long
term period with troughing over the eastern CONUS and westerly to
southwesterly surface winds over the area. A weak cold front is
forecast to approach the area before stalling just to the north
on Tuesday. While it's not likely the front will make it all the
way through our area, it could serve as a mechanism to initiate
some showers and thunderstorms along with the daily seabreeze each
afternoon. With the proximity of the front, slightly cooler and
drier air is expected in the wake of it with increased cloudiness
along and ahead of it, which in turn will keep forecast high
temperatures mostly in the mid 80s to low 90s across the area
through the week. Low temperatures are forecast in the low to mid
70s.

.MARINE...

West to southwest winds and seas near 1 to 3 feet are expected
through the period. Winds may reach caution criteria at times
today and tonight. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible
over the waters, with the greatest coverage expected this weekend.

.FIRE WEATHER...

There are no significant fire weather concerns expected for the next
several days.

.HYDROLOGY...

There are no widespread flooding concerns expected for the next
several days. However, with a fairly high coverage of showers and
thunderstorms expected through this weekend, localized pockets of
heavy rain are likely. We cannot rule out brief flooding in urban
and poor drainage areas with the heavier storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report
significant weather conditions and/or damage (while following all
local, state, and CDC guidelines) by calling the office or tweeting
us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   74  94  71  93  72 /  60  70  30  40  20
Panama City   75  90  75  90  76 /  50  50  30  40  20
Dothan        72  91  72  91  72 /  60  50  20  40  10
Albany        73  92  71  94  73 /  60  50  20  40  20
Valdosta      71  91  70  91  71 /  60  70  30  40  20
Cross City    76  90  71  89  72 /  70  70  50  50  30
Apalachicola  76  89  75  87  76 /  50  50  40  30  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Merrifield
LONG TERM...Merrifield
AVIATION...Dobbs
MARINE...Merrifield
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
221 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

FLZ008-010-012-108-112-121845-
Coastal Bay FL-Central Walton FL-Inland Bay FL-South Walton FL-
Washington FL-
221 PM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN BAY...SOUTHEASTERN
WALTON AND SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM EDT/145 PM
CDT/...

At 221 PM EDT/121 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 15 miles northwest of Panama City Beach, moving
southeast at 15 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Panama City Beach, Ebro, Bruce, West Bay, Pine Log, Seminole Hills,
Bunker, Laird, Gulf Resort Beach, Bahama Beach and Bid-a-Wee.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3053 8598 3041 8567 3018 8583 3030 8600
      3030 8601 3031 8601 3033 8603 3033 8605
      3035 8607 3037 8610
TIME...MOT...LOC 1821Z 301DEG 15KT 3041 8596