Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
931 AM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

...STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

.UPDATE...

No updates to the forecast for this morning. 12z upper air sounding
from Tallahassee showed the strong instability that is expected
across the area this afternoon with MLCAPE just under 2000 J/kg.
Minimum convective inhibition (CIN) will lead to a relatively early
start to storms this afternoon (probably around noon or 1 ET) and
continued growth through the afternoon hours is expected as further
instability develops with daytime heating. Largest concerns today
with any storms will be strong thunderstorm winds due to a
combination of strong instability and dry air in the upper levels
above 600mb. This meteorological setup can lead to enhanced
microbursts in any thunderstorms. With mid-level flow expected to be
elevated as a trough drops into the area, some storm organization is
possible with 20-30 knots of shear anticipated to develop. While the
biggest threat remains thunderstorm winds, a brief spin-up/tornado
can't be ruled out across the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend,
especially as the seabreeze potentially increases low level shear in
combination with the enhanced mid-level flow aloft. Hail is also
possible given the strong instability.

Storm development will likely center around two locations this
afternoon. Initially storms will likely develop across the
Panhandle/Big Bend near the seabreeze by noon and these will slowly
progress inland towards the I-10 corridor with development largely
being driven by outflow boundaries and daytime heating.
Storms will also develop, as we're seeing now, across inland
portions of AL/GA and move south as the associated mid-level trough
drops south. These storms will move south through the day and
eventually interact with the seabreeze. The severe threat will be
greatest this afternoon as instability is maximized and storm
organization grows.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [616 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

A fairly high coverage of showers and thunderstorms is expected from
late morning through this evening as an upper level disturbance
moves southeastward with northwest flow aloft. The airmass is
expected to be strongly unstable with SBCAPE near 3000 j/kg and
DCAPE values near 1000 j/kg. Localized enhancement of the mid-level
flow will aid in the potential for organized multicells to develop
with gusty winds, a few of which could be marginally severe. Highs
will generally be in the upper 80s to lower 90s with overnight lows
in the 70s.

.SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday]...

A few impulses embedded within the NW flow aloft will rotate
across the trough over the eastern CONUS through the short term
period. Surface high pressure to the south will keep winds mostly
westerly with PWs ranging from 1.8 to 2.0 inches. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected both Sunday and Monday, with higher
coverage expected on Sunday. Greater coverage is generally
expected over the eastern portions of the area where deeper
moisture resides. A combination of the seabreeze, leftover
boundaries from earlier convection, and showers and storms moving
into the area from the NW to N will all contribute to shower and
thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening hours. A
bit of drier air could limit coverage somewhat on Monday. High
temperatures are forecast in the low to mid 90s with low
temperatures in the low to mid 70s.

.LONG TERM [Monday Night Through Saturday]...

The large scale pattern remains fairly steady through the long
term period with troughing over the eastern CONUS and westerly to
southwesterly surface winds over the area. A weak cold front is
forecast to approach the area before stalling just to the north
on Tuesday. While it's not likely the front will make it all the
way through our area, it could serve as a mechanism to initiate
some showers and thunderstorms along with the daily seabreeze each
afternoon. With the proximity of the front, slightly cooler and
drier air is expected in the wake of it with increased cloudiness
along and ahead of it, which in turn will keep forecast high
temperatures mostly in the mid 80s to low 90s across the area
through the week. Low temperatures are forecast in the low to mid
70s.

.AVIATION...

[Through 12Z Sunday] The coverage of showers and thunderstorms is
expected to increase through the day with most areas expected to
see storms near or over the terminals by the afternoon hours.
Winds will be gusty near storms.

.MARINE...

West to southwest winds and seas near 1 to 3 feet are expected
through the period. Winds may reach caution criteria at times
today and tonight. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible
over the waters, with the greatest coverage expected this weekend.

.FIRE WEATHER...

There are no significant fire weather concerns expected for the next
several days.

.HYDROLOGY...

There are no widespread flooding concerns expected for the next
several days. However, with a fairly high coverage of showers and
thunderstorms expected through this weekend, localized pockets of
heavy rain are likely. We cannot rule out brief flooding in urban
and poor drainage areas with the heavier storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report
significant weather conditions and/or damage (while following all
local, state, and CDC guidelines) by calling the office or tweeting
us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   92  72  93  72  92 /  80  60  60  40  40
Panama City   87  75  90  75  88 /  70  50  40  30  30
Dothan        89  72  92  72  92 /  70  60  50  30  30
Albany        90  73  93  73  94 /  60  60  60  20  30
Valdosta      90  71  91  71  91 /  80  60  70  40  40
Cross City    89  74  90  73  89 /  70  60  60  60  50
Apalachicola  87  76  88  75  87 /  70  50  40  40  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

UPDATE...Dobbs
NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Merrifield
LONG TERM...Merrifield
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Merrifield
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD

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