Alert archive / Pennsylvania / Tornado Watches in 2021

Tornado Watch 447

August 18, 20214 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Aug 18, 2021, 11:37 AM EDT for 4 states. It was in force for 11 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Aug 18, 2021, 11:37 AM EDT (15:37 UTC)
Expired
Aug 18, 2021, 11:00 PM EDT
In force
11 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
0.5 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 83 counties

Allegany County, MD, Anne Arundel County, MD, Baltimore County, MD, Calvert County, MD, Carroll County, MD, Cecil County, MD, Charles County, MD, City of Baltimore, MD, Frederick County, MD, Garrett County, MD, Harford County, MD, Howard County, MD, Kent County, MD, Montgomery County, MD, Prince George's County, MD, Queen Anne's County, MD, Saint Mary's County, MD, Washington County, MD, Adams County, PA, Bedford County, PA, Berks County, PA, Blair County, PA, Cambria County, PA, Cameron County, PA, Carbon County, PA, Centre County, PA, Chester County, PA, Clearfield County, PA, Clinton County, PA, Columbia County, PA, Cumberland County, PA, Dauphin County, PA, Elk County, PA, Franklin County, PA, Fulton County, PA, Huntingdon County, PA, Juniata County, PA, Lackawanna County, PA, Lancaster County, PA, Lebanon County, PA, Lehigh County, PA, Luzerne County, PA, Lycoming County, PA, Mifflin County, PA, Monroe County, PA, Montour County, PA, Northampton County, PA, Northumberland County, PA, Perry County, PA, Schuylkill County, PA, Snyder County, PA, Somerset County, PA, Sullivan County, PA, Union County, PA, Wyoming County, PA, York County, PA, Arlington County, VA, City of Alexandria, VA, City of Fairfax, VA, City of Falls Church, VA, City of Manassas, VA, City of Manassas Park, VA, City of Winchester, VA, Clarke County, VA, Culpeper County, VA, Fairfax County, VA, Fauquier County, VA, Frederick County, VA, King George County, VA, Loudoun County, VA, Page County, VA, Prince William County, VA, Rappahannock County, VA, Shenandoah County, VA, Stafford County, VA, Warren County, VA, Berkeley County, WV, Grant County, WV, Hampshire County, WV, Hardy County, WV, Jefferson County, WV, Mineral County, WV, Morgan County, WV

The radar

The State College radar (KCCX), 107 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:41 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
50%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
20%
Ten or more severe wind reports
30%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
10%
Ten or more severe hail reports
5%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
5%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
40%

Warnings issued inside it

37 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 18, 12:35 PM EDTFlash Flood Warning Considerable damage threatCTPBedford, Blair, Huntingdon3 hr
Aug 18, 12:54 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPCumberland, Perry36 min
Aug 18, 1:31 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPJuniata, Perry44 min
Aug 18, 1:37 PM EDTFlash Flood Warning Considerable damage threatCTPBlair, Centre, Huntingdon82 min
Aug 18, 2:02 PM EDTTornado WarningCTPCentre, Huntingdon28 min
Aug 18, 2:12 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPCentre, Clinton33 min
Aug 18, 2:36 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPCumberland, Perry39 min
Aug 18, 3:10 PM EDTTornado WarningCTPAdams, York40 min
Aug 18, 3:12 PM EDTTornado WarningLWXAllegany, Washington16 min
Aug 18, 3:36 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPCumberland, Dauphin, Lancaster, York24 min
Aug 18, 3:56 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPDauphin, Juniata, Northumberland, Perry, Snyder34 min
Aug 18, 4:05 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPFranklin, Fulton40 min
Aug 18, 4:29 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXSaint Mary's14 min
Aug 18, 4:39 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPFranklin36 min
Aug 18, 5:10 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPAdams, Cumberland, Franklin, Perry, York35 min
Aug 18, 5:13 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXCarroll, Frederick, Washington47 min
Aug 18, 5:18 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPJuniata, Mifflin45 min
Aug 18, 5:26 PM EDTTornado WarningLWXFrederick, Washington17 min
Aug 18, 5:31 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPDauphin74 min
Aug 18, 5:35 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPAdams40 min
Aug 18, 5:38 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPAdams, Cumberland, York37 min
Aug 18, 6:13 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPAdams, Cumberland, Dauphin, Lancaster, Perry, York47 min
Aug 18, 6:31 PM EDTTornado WarningLWXCecil29 min
Aug 18, 6:47 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPAdams, Dauphin, Lancaster, Lebanon, Schuylkill, York43 min
Aug 18, 7:30 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPLancaster, York45 min
Aug 18, 7:37 PM EDTFlash Flood Warning Considerable damage threatCTPSchuylkill2 hr
Aug 18, 7:40 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningCTPDauphin, Lancaster, York3 hr
Aug 18, 8:08 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPLancaster, Lebanon37 min
Aug 18, 8:57 PM EDTTornado WarningLWXBaltimore22 min
Aug 18, 9:11 PM EDTFlash Flood Warning Considerable damage threatCTPLancaster108 min
Aug 18, 9:12 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPYork33 min
Aug 18, 9:21 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPLancaster39 min
Aug 18, 9:30 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningPHIBerks2 hr
Aug 18, 10:16 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningPHIBerks, Lehigh3 hr
Aug 18, 10:28 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPLancaster47 min
Aug 18, 10:44 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningPHILehigh, Monroe, Northampton4 hr
Aug 18, 10:50 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningPHIBucks, Chester, Montgomery4 hr

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Washington/Dulle, VA (KIAD), launched 12:00Z, 3.6 hours before the alert went out and 151 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Washington/Dulle, VA at 12:00Z on 2021-08-18Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1011 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Washington/Dulle, VA at 12:00Z on 2021-08-18The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 151 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1011 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-1 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
592 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
30 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
151 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
175 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.6
Supercell composite
4.6

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

877 
WWUS20 KWNS 181533
SEL7  
SPC WW 181533
DCZ000-MDZ000-PAZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-CWZ000-190000-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 447
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  District Of Columbia
  Maryland
  central and eastern Pennsylvania
  northern Virginia
  northeast West Virginia
  Coastal Waters

* Effective this Wednesday morning and evening from 1130 AM until
  800 PM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes possible
  Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in intensity across
a portion of the Middle Atlantic and Northeast U.S. this afternoon
in association with the remnants of tropical cyclone Fred. Some of
the showers and thunderstorms will become capable of producing a few
tornadoes and isolated damaging wind.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 100 statute miles
east and west of a line from 20 miles north northeast of
Williamsport PA to 70 miles south southwest of Martinsburg WV. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
storm motion vector 19035.

...Dial

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 18, 8:46 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCFrederick, Washington119 min
Aug 18, 10:58 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnne Arundel, Baltimore, Calvert, Carroll, Charles, Frederick and 9 more92 min
Aug 18, 3:29 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnne Arundel, Baltimore, Carroll, Cecil, Frederick, Harford and 5 more91 min
Aug 18, 4:57 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnne Arundel, Baltimore, Carroll, Cecil, Frederick, Harford and 6 more93 min
Aug 17, 10:04 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBedford, Bland, Botetourt, Carroll, Craig, Floyd and 17 more116 min
Aug 18, 2:38 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCharles City, Gloucester, Isle of Wight, James City, King and Queen, Lancaster and 20 more97 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Pennsylvania, 2021Tornado Watches in Virginia, 2021Tornado Watches in Maryland, 2021Every tornado watch in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.