Alert archive / Pennsylvania / Tornado Watches in 2021
Tornado Watch 447
The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Aug 18, 2021, 11:37 AM EDT for 4 states. It was in force for 11 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 18, 2021, 11:37 AM EDT (15:37 UTC)
- Expired
- Aug 18, 2021, 11:00 PM EDT
- In force
- 11 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Largest hail expected
- 0.5 in
- Strongest gust expected
- 60 kt
All 83 counties
Allegany County, MD, Anne Arundel County, MD, Baltimore County, MD, Calvert County, MD, Carroll County, MD, Cecil County, MD, Charles County, MD, City of Baltimore, MD, Frederick County, MD, Garrett County, MD, Harford County, MD, Howard County, MD, Kent County, MD, Montgomery County, MD, Prince George's County, MD, Queen Anne's County, MD, Saint Mary's County, MD, Washington County, MD, Adams County, PA, Bedford County, PA, Berks County, PA, Blair County, PA, Cambria County, PA, Cameron County, PA, Carbon County, PA, Centre County, PA, Chester County, PA, Clearfield County, PA, Clinton County, PA, Columbia County, PA, Cumberland County, PA, Dauphin County, PA, Elk County, PA, Franklin County, PA, Fulton County, PA, Huntingdon County, PA, Juniata County, PA, Lackawanna County, PA, Lancaster County, PA, Lebanon County, PA, Lehigh County, PA, Luzerne County, PA, Lycoming County, PA, Mifflin County, PA, Monroe County, PA, Montour County, PA, Northampton County, PA, Northumberland County, PA, Perry County, PA, Schuylkill County, PA, Snyder County, PA, Somerset County, PA, Sullivan County, PA, Union County, PA, Wyoming County, PA, York County, PA, Arlington County, VA, City of Alexandria, VA, City of Fairfax, VA, City of Falls Church, VA, City of Manassas, VA, City of Manassas Park, VA, City of Winchester, VA, Clarke County, VA, Culpeper County, VA, Fairfax County, VA, Fauquier County, VA, Frederick County, VA, King George County, VA, Loudoun County, VA, Page County, VA, Prince William County, VA, Rappahannock County, VA, Shenandoah County, VA, Stafford County, VA, Warren County, VA, Berkeley County, WV, Grant County, WV, Hampshire County, WV, Hardy County, WV, Jefferson County, WV, Mineral County, WV, Morgan County, WV
The radar
The State College radar (KCCX), 107 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:41 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What SPC expected
The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.
- Two or more tornadoes
- 50%
- One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
- 20%
- Ten or more severe wind reports
- 30%
- One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
- 10%
- Ten or more severe hail reports
- 5%
- One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
- 5%
- Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
- 40%
Warnings issued inside it
37 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 12:35 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | CTP | Bedford, Blair, Huntingdon | 3 hr |
| Aug 18, 12:54 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CTP | Cumberland, Perry | 36 min |
| Aug 18, 1:31 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CTP | Juniata, Perry | 44 min |
| Aug 18, 1:37 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | CTP | Blair, Centre, Huntingdon | 82 min |
| Aug 18, 2:02 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | CTP | Centre, Huntingdon | 28 min |
| Aug 18, 2:12 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CTP | Centre, Clinton | 33 min |
| Aug 18, 2:36 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CTP | Cumberland, Perry | 39 min |
| Aug 18, 3:10 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | CTP | Adams, York | 40 min |
| Aug 18, 3:12 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | LWX | Allegany, Washington | 16 min |
| Aug 18, 3:36 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CTP | Cumberland, Dauphin, Lancaster, York | 24 min |
| Aug 18, 3:56 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CTP | Dauphin, Juniata, Northumberland, Perry, Snyder | 34 min |
| Aug 18, 4:05 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CTP | Franklin, Fulton | 40 min |
| Aug 18, 4:29 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | Saint Mary's | 14 min |
| Aug 18, 4:39 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CTP | Franklin | 36 min |
| Aug 18, 5:10 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CTP | Adams, Cumberland, Franklin, Perry, York | 35 min |
| Aug 18, 5:13 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | Carroll, Frederick, Washington | 47 min |
| Aug 18, 5:18 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CTP | Juniata, Mifflin | 45 min |
| Aug 18, 5:26 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | LWX | Frederick, Washington | 17 min |
| Aug 18, 5:31 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CTP | Dauphin | 74 min |
| Aug 18, 5:35 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CTP | Adams | 40 min |
| Aug 18, 5:38 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CTP | Adams, Cumberland, York | 37 min |
| Aug 18, 6:13 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CTP | Adams, Cumberland, Dauphin, Lancaster, Perry, York | 47 min |
| Aug 18, 6:31 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | LWX | Cecil | 29 min |
| Aug 18, 6:47 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CTP | Adams, Dauphin, Lancaster, Lebanon, Schuylkill, York | 43 min |
| Aug 18, 7:30 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CTP | Lancaster, York | 45 min |
| Aug 18, 7:37 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | CTP | Schuylkill | 2 hr |
| Aug 18, 7:40 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | CTP | Dauphin, Lancaster, York | 3 hr |
| Aug 18, 8:08 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CTP | Lancaster, Lebanon | 37 min |
| Aug 18, 8:57 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | LWX | Baltimore | 22 min |
| Aug 18, 9:11 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | CTP | Lancaster | 108 min |
| Aug 18, 9:12 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CTP | York | 33 min |
| Aug 18, 9:21 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CTP | Lancaster | 39 min |
| Aug 18, 9:30 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | PHI | Berks | 2 hr |
| Aug 18, 10:16 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | PHI | Berks, Lehigh | 3 hr |
| Aug 18, 10:28 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CTP | Lancaster | 47 min |
| Aug 18, 10:44 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | PHI | Lehigh, Monroe, Northampton | 4 hr |
| Aug 18, 10:50 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | PHI | Bucks, Chester, Montgomery | 4 hr |
Discussions around it
SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.
The nearest sounding before it
Washington/Dulle, VA (KIAD), launched 12:00Z, 3.6 hours before the alert went out and 151 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1011 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -1 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 592 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 30 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 151 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 175 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.6
- Supercell composite
- 4.6
The text
As transmitted.
877 WWUS20 KWNS 181533 SEL7 SPC WW 181533 DCZ000-MDZ000-PAZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-CWZ000-190000- URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 447 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Maryland central and eastern Pennsylvania northern Virginia northeast West Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Wednesday morning and evening from 1130 AM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in intensity across a portion of the Middle Atlantic and Northeast U.S. this afternoon in association with the remnants of tropical cyclone Fred. Some of the showers and thunderstorms will become capable of producing a few tornadoes and isolated damaging wind. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 100 statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles north northeast of Williamsport PA to 70 miles south southwest of Martinsburg WV. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 19035. ...Dial
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 8:46 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Frederick, Washington | 119 min |
| Aug 18, 10:58 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Calvert, Carroll, Charles, Frederick and 9 more | 92 min |
| Aug 18, 3:29 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Carroll, Cecil, Frederick, Harford and 5 more | 91 min |
| Aug 18, 4:57 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Carroll, Cecil, Frederick, Harford and 6 more | 93 min |
| Aug 17, 10:04 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bedford, Bland, Botetourt, Carroll, Craig, Floyd and 17 more | 116 min |
| Aug 18, 2:38 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Charles City, Gloucester, Isle of Wight, James City, King and Queen, Lancaster and 20 more | 97 min |
Nearby
Tornado Watches in Pennsylvania, 2021Tornado Watches in Virginia, 2021Tornado Watches in Maryland, 2021Every tornado watch in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.