Alert archive / North Carolina / Tornado Watches in 2021

Tornado Watch 446

August 17, 202130 counties in North Carolina; 15 counties in South Carolina; 21 counties in Virginia

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Aug 17, 2021, 6:28 PM EDT for 30 counties in North Carolina; 15 counties in South Carolina; 21 counties in Virginia. It was in force for 10 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Aug 17, 2021, 6:28 PM EDT (22:28 UTC)
Expired
Aug 18, 2021, 4:00 AM EDT
In force
10 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
0.5 in
Strongest gust expected
50 kt
All 66 counties

Alexander County, NC, Alleghany County, NC, Ashe County, NC, Avery County, NC, Buncombe County, NC, Burke County, NC, Cabarrus County, NC, Caldwell County, NC, Caswell County, NC, Catawba County, NC, Cleveland County, NC, Davie County, NC, Gaston County, NC, Henderson County, NC, Iredell County, NC, Lincoln County, NC, McDowell County, NC, Mecklenburg County, NC, Mitchell County, NC, Polk County, NC, Rockingham County, NC, Rowan County, NC, Rutherford County, NC, Stokes County, NC, Surry County, NC, Union County, NC, Watauga County, NC, Wilkes County, NC, Yadkin County, NC, Yancey County, NC, Cherokee County, SC, Chester County, SC, Fairfield County, SC, Greenville County, SC, Greenwood County, SC, Kershaw County, SC, Lancaster County, SC, Laurens County, SC, Lexington County, SC, Newberry County, SC, Richland County, SC, Saluda County, SC, Spartanburg County, SC, Union County, SC, York County, SC, Bedford County, VA, Botetourt County, VA, Carroll County, VA, City of Danville, VA, City of Galax, VA, City of Martinsville, VA, City of Radford, VA, City of Roanoke, VA, City of Salem, VA, Craig County, VA, Floyd County, VA, Franklin County, VA, Grayson County, VA, Henry County, VA, Montgomery County, VA, Patrick County, VA, Pittsylvania County, VA, Pulaski County, VA, Roanoke County, VA, Smyth County, VA, Wythe County, VA

The radar

The Greer radar (KGSP), 123 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:29 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
70%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
20%
Ten or more severe wind reports
20%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
10%
Ten or more severe hail reports
5%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
5%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
30%

Warnings issued inside it

17 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 17, 6:42 PM EDTTornado WarningGSPPolk, Rutherford48 min
Aug 17, 6:46 PM EDTTornado WarningGSPCherokee, Spartanburg44 min
Aug 17, 6:51 PM EDTTornado WarningGSPLaurens, Spartanburg, Union39 min
Aug 17, 6:57 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningGSPBurke, McDowell6 hr
Aug 17, 7:13 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningRNKWatauga8 hr
Aug 17, 7:59 PM EDTTornado WarningGSPCleveland46 min
Aug 17, 8:00 PM EDTTornado WarningGSPCherokee, Spartanburg, Union, York45 min
Aug 17, 8:43 PM EDTTornado WarningCAELexington, Saluda32 min
Aug 17, 9:57 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningRNKAshe, Wilkes5 hr
Aug 17, 10:21 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningGSPCatawba3 hr
Aug 17, 10:44 PM EDTTornado WarningGSPAlexander, Iredell31 min
Aug 17, 10:47 PM EDTTornado WarningRNKSurry, Wilkes, Yadkin28 min
Aug 17, 11:45 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningCAELexington, Richland2 hr
Aug 18, 12:08 AM EDTTornado WarningRNKSurry37 min
Aug 18, 12:24 AM EDTTornado WarningRNKSurry21 min
Aug 18, 1:01 AM EDTTornado WarningRNKSurry29 min
Aug 18, 2:10 AM EDTFlash Flood WarningRNKAlleghany, Surry5 hr

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 10.5 hours before the alert went out and 126 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 12:00Z on 2021-08-17Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 522 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 12:00Z on 2021-08-17The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 77 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
522 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-5 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
593 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
26 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
77 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
99 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.1
Supercell composite
0.9

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

607 
WWUS20 KWNS 172223
SEL6  
SPC WW 172223
NCZ000-SCZ000-VAZ000-180600-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 446
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
625 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Western North Carolina
  Parts of central and Upstate South Carolina
  Southwestern Virginia

* Effective this Tuesday night and Wednesday morning from 625 PM
  until 200 AM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes likely
  Isolated damaging wind gusts to 60 mph possible

SUMMARY...Broken bands of supercells will likely persist on the east
side of the remnants of tropical cyclone Fred as it moves
north-northeastward through tonight.  A several tornadoes can be
expected, along with isolated wind damage in the strongest storms.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles
north and south of a line from 60 miles south southeast of Dublin VA
to 20 miles southwest of Spartanburg SC. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU6).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...This tornado watch replaces tornado
watch number 444...tornado watch number 445. Watch number 444 445
will not be in effect after 625 PM EDT. 

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 50 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 20025.

...Thompson

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 17, 10:42 AM EDTTornado WatchSPCAlexander, Avery, Buncombe, Burke, Cabarrus, Caldwell and 20 more8 hr
Aug 17, 12:35 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlexander, Cabarrus, Catawba, Cleveland, Davie, Forsyth and 9 more85 min
Aug 17, 1:06 PM EDTTornado WatchSPCAlleghany, Ashe, Rockingham, Stokes, Surry, Watauga and 2 more5 hr
Aug 17, 3:25 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBuncombe, Burke, Cleveland, Gaston, Henderson, Lincoln and 4 more2 hr
Aug 17, 5:55 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlexander, Alleghany, Ashe, Avery, Buncombe, Burke and 28 more65 min
Aug 17, 8:22 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAbbeville, Anderson, Edgefield, Greenwood, McCormick113 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in North Carolina, 2021Tornado Watches in Virginia, 2021Tornado Watches in South Carolina, 2021Every tornado watch in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.