Tornado Watch 194

Issued

May 22, 2021, 12:42 PM MDT (18:42 UTC)

Expired

May 22, 2021, 7:56 PM MDT

In force

7 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Largest hail expected

3 in

Strongest gust expected

60 kt

Counties Chaves County, NM, Colfax County, NM, Curry County, NM, De Baca County, NM, Eddy County, NM, Guadalupe County, NM, Harding County, NM, Lincoln County, NM, Mora County, NM, Otero County, NM, Quay County, NM, Roosevelt County, NM, San Miguel County, NM, Torrance County, NM, Union County, NM, Culberson County, TX, Hudspeth County, TX, Jeff Davis County, TX, Reeves County, TX

The Cannon AFB radar (KFDX), 60 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:46 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Two or more tornadoes

40%

One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes

10%

Ten or more severe wind reports

30%

One or more gusts of 65 knots or more

10%

Ten or more severe hail reports

70%

One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more

50%

Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports

90%

• Mesoscale Discussion 699 Severe potential...watch likelyMay 22, 10:51 AM MDT
• Mesoscale Discussion 700 Severe potential...watch likelyMay 22, 11:52 AM MDT
• Mesoscale Discussion 702 Tornado watch 194May 22, 12:56 PM MDT
• Mesoscale Discussion 705 Tornado watch 194May 22, 5:08 PM MDT

351 
WWUS20 KWNS 221839
SEL4  
SPC WW 221839
NMZ000-TXZ000-230300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 194
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 PM MDT Sat May 22 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Eastern New Mexico
  Far West Texas

* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 1240 PM
  until 900 PM MDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A couple tornadoes possible
  Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
    to 3 inches in diameter possible
  Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop initially
across a broad portion of eastern New Mexico including the Raton
Mesa vicinity southward toward the Sacramento Mountains. A very
moist environment exists across the region in conjunction with
supercell-favorable wind profiles. Large hail should be the most
common risk, but a couple of tornadoes could also occur given the
moist environment and easterly component of near-surface winds.
Isolated severe-caliber winds may also occur.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles
east and west of a line from 20 miles northeast of Raton NM to 80
miles south of Guadalupe Pass TX. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 193...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 22025.

...Guyer

Tornado Watches in New Mexico, 2021Tornado Watches in Texas, 2021Every tornado watch in 2021

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.