Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 702

May 22, 2021Eddy County, Lea County, New Mexico; 5 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 22, 2021, 12:56 PM MDT for Eddy County, Lea County, New Mexico; 5 counties in Texas. It was in force for 3 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 22, 2021, 12:56 PM MDT (18:56 UTC)
Expired
May 22, 2021, 3:30 PM MDT
In force
3 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Tornado watch 194

Counties Eddy County, NM, Lea County, NM, Culberson County, TX, Hudspeth County, TX, Jeff Davis County, TX, Loving County, TX, Reeves County, TX

The radar

The Midland/Odessa radar (KMAF), 200 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:59 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 12:00Z, 6.9 hours before the alert went out and 199 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Midland Regional, TX at 12:00Z on 2021-05-22Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 130 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Midland Regional, TX at 12:00Z on 2021-05-22The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 25 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
130 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-322 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
693 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
8 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
25 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
-2 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

359 
ACUS11 KWNS 221857
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221856 
TXZ000-NMZ000-222130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0702
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 PM CDT Sat May 22 2021

Areas affected...southeast New Mexico...Far West Texas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 194...

Valid 221856Z - 222130Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 194 continues.

SUMMARY...Storms are expected to form after 20Z near a dryline, with
large hail, damaging gusts, and a tornado or two possible.

DISCUSSION...Substantial easterly low-level flow is maintaining
surface dewpoints along and east of a dryline over eastern Otero and
Hudspeth counties as strong heating continues. MLCAPE over 2000 J/kg
is expected by late afternoon, beneath moderate southwesterlies
aloft. The result will be a hodographs favoring slow-moving
supercells which are expected to form after 20Z.

Steep low and midlevel lapse rates as well as strong easterly storm
relative inflow with increasing SRH later today will support a
tornado as well as damaging hail threat. Storms may eventually
produce congealing outflows with damaging gusts. Capping will occur
quickly east of the dryline by early evening as heating ceases, with
little threat expected east of 103 W.

..Jewell/Guyer.. 05/22/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON   30940553 32660554 33060523 33240468 33300373 33010325
            32510308 31910308 31220316 30610347 30320397 30470487
            30660507 30940553

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 22, 10:51 AM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCColfax, Mora, San Miguel114 min
May 22, 11:52 AM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCLincoln113 min
May 22, 12:42 PM MDTTornado WatchSPCChaves, Colfax, Curry, De Baca, Eddy, Guadalupe and 9 more7 hr
May 22, 5:08 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChaves, Colfax, Curry, De Baca, Eddy, Guadalupe and 9 more97 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.