Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 702
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 22, 2021, 12:56 PM MDT for Eddy County, Lea County, New Mexico; 5 counties in Texas. It was in force for 3 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 22, 2021, 12:56 PM MDT (18:56 UTC)
- Expired
- May 22, 2021, 3:30 PM MDT
- In force
- 3 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Tornado watch 194
Counties Eddy County, NM, Lea County, NM, Culberson County, TX, Hudspeth County, TX, Jeff Davis County, TX, Loving County, TX, Reeves County, TX
The radar
The Midland/Odessa radar (KMAF), 200 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:59 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 12:00Z, 6.9 hours before the alert went out and 199 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 130 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -322 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 693 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 8 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 25 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- -2 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
359
ACUS11 KWNS 221857
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221856
TXZ000-NMZ000-222130-
Mesoscale Discussion 0702
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 PM CDT Sat May 22 2021
Areas affected...southeast New Mexico...Far West Texas
Concerning...Tornado Watch 194...
Valid 221856Z - 222130Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 194 continues.
SUMMARY...Storms are expected to form after 20Z near a dryline, with
large hail, damaging gusts, and a tornado or two possible.
DISCUSSION...Substantial easterly low-level flow is maintaining
surface dewpoints along and east of a dryline over eastern Otero and
Hudspeth counties as strong heating continues. MLCAPE over 2000 J/kg
is expected by late afternoon, beneath moderate southwesterlies
aloft. The result will be a hodographs favoring slow-moving
supercells which are expected to form after 20Z.
Steep low and midlevel lapse rates as well as strong easterly storm
relative inflow with increasing SRH later today will support a
tornado as well as damaging hail threat. Storms may eventually
produce congealing outflows with damaging gusts. Capping will occur
quickly east of the dryline by early evening as heating ceases, with
little threat expected east of 103 W.
..Jewell/Guyer.. 05/22/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...
LAT...LON 30940553 32660554 33060523 33240468 33300373 33010325
32510308 31910308 31220316 30610347 30320397 30470487
30660507 30940553SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 22, 10:51 AM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Colfax, Mora, San Miguel | 114 min |
| May 22, 11:52 AM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Lincoln | 113 min |
| May 22, 12:42 PM MDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Chaves, Colfax, Curry, De Baca, Eddy, Guadalupe and 9 more | 7 hr |
| May 22, 5:08 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Chaves, Colfax, Curry, De Baca, Eddy, Guadalupe and 9 more | 97 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.