Mesoscale Discussion 700

Issued

May 22, 2021, 11:52 AM MDT (17:52 UTC)

Expired

May 22, 2021, 1:45 PM MDT

In force

113 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe potential...watch likely

Chance of a watch

80%

County Lincoln County, NM

The Holloman AFB radar (KHDX), 131 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:51 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

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• Tornado Watch 194May 22, 12:40 PM MDT

031 
ACUS11 KWNS 221752
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221752 
NMZ000-221945-

Mesoscale Discussion 0700
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 PM CDT Sat May 22 2021

Areas affected...Parts of south central New Mexico

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 221752Z - 221945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm development near the Sacramento
Mountains may evolve into a few supercells while slowly propagating
north-northeast of the higher terrain by 3-5 PM MDT.

DISCUSSION...Although forcing for ascent, associated with one subtle
perturbation progressing through the eastern periphery of the
larger-scale western U.S. mid/upper troughing, may be glancing, if
not passing largely to the north, attempts at deepening convective
development are underway along the Sacramento Mountains.  This is
likely being aided by favorable orographic forcing for ascent,
beneath cyclonic and at least weakly difluent high level flow.

As low-level moisture, including surface dew points as high as the
lower 60s across the high plains, continues to advect into the
higher terrain on southeasterly near-surface flow, moderately large
CAPE will continue to develop.  This likely will contribute to
increasing and intensifying thunderstorm development, which may
slowly begin to propagate north-northeastward off the higher
terrain, as inhibition in lower elevations erodes with further
insolation, aided by 30 kt southerly deep-layer mean ambient flow.

Beneath 40-50 kt flow in the 500-300 mb layer, the environment
probably will become conducive to the evolution of a few supercells,
with the potential to produce large hail, locally strong surface
gusts and perhaps a tornado.

..Kerr/Guyer.. 05/22/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON   34960583 35220534 34470495 33730488 32770515 32730565
            33930567 34960583

Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.