Alert archive / New Mexico / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 705
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 22, 2021, 5:08 PM MDT for 15 counties in New Mexico; 4 counties in Texas. It was in force for 97 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 22, 2021, 5:08 PM MDT (23:08 UTC)
- Expired
- May 22, 2021, 6:45 PM MDT
- In force
- 97 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Tornado watch 194
Counties Chaves County, NM, Colfax County, NM, Curry County, NM, De Baca County, NM, Eddy County, NM, Guadalupe County, NM, Harding County, NM, Lea County, NM, Lincoln County, NM, Mora County, NM, Otero County, NM, Quay County, NM, Roosevelt County, NM, San Miguel County, NM, Union County, NM, Culberson County, TX, Hudspeth County, TX, Loving County, TX, Reeves County, TX
The radar
The Holloman AFB radar (KHDX), 123 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:08 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Santa Teresa, NM (KEPZ), launched 12:00Z, 11.1 hours before the alert went out and 229 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 3028 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 35 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 4 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 200 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
305 ACUS11 KWNS 222309 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222308 OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-230045- Mesoscale Discussion 0705 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0608 PM CDT Sat May 22 2021 Areas affected...Eastern New Mexico...West Texas Concerning...Tornado Watch 194... Valid 222308Z - 230045Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 194 continues. SUMMARY...Severe threat continues across ww194. DISCUSSION...Diffluent high-level flow continues across the southern Rockies early this evening as 500mb flow strengthens across northwestern NM/southwestern CO. Additionally, weak height falls will overspread this region ahead of a slow-moving upper trough. This large-scale regime will remain favorable for organized supercells persisting after sunset. Latest radar data exhibits numerous supercells across eastern NM, most of which are producing large hail. Additionally, one supercell in particular over northeastern Lincoln County has likely produced hail in excess of 2 inches at times. Given the reservoir of buoyancy that currently extends across western TX/eastern NM, supercells should continue to spread northeast with new development possibly continuing along the western plume of moisture/instability in response to the approaching upper trough. Hail, along with a few tornadoes, remain possible. ..Darrow.. 05/22/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AMA...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... LAT...LON 30660597 36920550 36910296 30670361 30660597
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 22, 10:51 AM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Colfax, Mora, San Miguel | 114 min |
| May 22, 11:52 AM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Lincoln | 113 min |
| May 22, 12:42 PM MDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Chaves, Colfax, Curry, De Baca, Eddy, Guadalupe and 9 more | 7 hr |
| May 22, 12:56 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Eddy, Lea | 3 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.