Alert archive / Tennessee / Tornado Watches in 2021

Tornado Watch 13

February 28, 20214 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Feb 28, 2021, 2:22 PM CST for 4 states. It was in force for 8 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Feb 28, 2021, 2:22 PM CST (20:22 UTC)
Expired
Feb 28, 2021, 10:00 PM CST
In force
8 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
2 in
Strongest gust expected
65 kt
All 99 counties

Arkansas County, AR, Bradley County, AR, Calhoun County, AR, Clark County, AR, Clay County, AR, Cleburne County, AR, Cleveland County, AR, Conway County, AR, Craighead County, AR, Crittenden County, AR, Cross County, AR, Dallas County, AR, Desha County, AR, Drew County, AR, Faulkner County, AR, Garland County, AR, Grant County, AR, Greene County, AR, Hot Spring County, AR, Independence County, AR, Jackson County, AR, Jefferson County, AR, Lawrence County, AR, Lee County, AR, Lincoln County, AR, Lonoke County, AR, Mississippi County, AR, Monroe County, AR, Ouachita County, AR, Perry County, AR, Phillips County, AR, Poinsett County, AR, Prairie County, AR, Pulaski County, AR, Saline County, AR, St. Francis County, AR, White County, AR, Woodruff County, AR, Allen County, KY, Calloway County, KY, Christian County, KY, Fulton County, KY, Graves County, KY, Hickman County, KY, Logan County, KY, Simpson County, KY, Todd County, KY, Trigg County, KY, Warren County, KY, Alcorn County, MS, Benton County, MS, Coahoma County, MS, DeSoto County, MS, Lafayette County, MS, Marshall County, MS, Panola County, MS, Quitman County, MS, Tate County, MS, Tippah County, MS, Tunica County, MS, Benton County, TN, Carroll County, TN, Cheatham County, TN, Chester County, TN, Crockett County, TN, Davidson County, TN, Decatur County, TN, Dickson County, TN, Dyer County, TN, Fayette County, TN, Gibson County, TN, Giles County, TN, Hardeman County, TN, Hardin County, TN, Haywood County, TN, Henderson County, TN, Henry County, TN, Hickman County, TN, Houston County, TN, Humphreys County, TN, Lake County, TN, Lauderdale County, TN, Lawrence County, TN, Lewis County, TN, Madison County, TN, Marshall County, TN, Maury County, TN, McNairy County, TN, Montgomery County, TN, Obion County, TN, Perry County, TN, Robertson County, TN, Shelby County, TN, Stewart County, TN, Sumner County, TN, Tipton County, TN, Wayne County, TN, Weakley County, TN, Williamson County, TN

The radar

The Memphis radar (KNQA), 66 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:25 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
60%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
20%
Ten or more severe wind reports
80%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
30%
Ten or more severe hail reports
30%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
30%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
95%

Warnings issued inside it

47 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 28, 2:47 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningLMKBarren, Edmonson, Green, Hart, Larue, Marion and 3 more6 hr
Feb 28, 2:50 PM CSTFlash Flood Warning EmergencyCatastrophic damage threatPAHTodd6 hr
Feb 28, 2:54 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKFaulkner, White36 min
Feb 28, 2:58 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningPAHChristian6 hr
Feb 28, 3:03 PM CSTTornado WarningLZKPrairie, White, Woodruff17 min
Feb 28, 3:15 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGDyer, Lake33 min
Feb 28, 3:16 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKCleburne, Faulkner, Jackson, Lonoke, Prairie, Pulaski and 1 more44 min
Feb 28, 3:20 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningLZKCleburne, Conway, Faulkner, Perry, White90 min
Feb 28, 3:37 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningMEGMississippi2 hr
Feb 28, 4:26 PM CSTTornado WarningLZKClark, Hot Spring23 min
Feb 28, 4:37 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningMEGMississippi5 hr
Feb 28, 4:44 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningMEGLake, Obion5 hr
Feb 28, 4:48 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKClark, Dallas, Grant, Hot Spring42 min
Feb 28, 4:56 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGCrittenden, Cross, Poinsett49 min
Feb 28, 5:16 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningMEGCraighead, Mississippi, Poinsett3 hr
Feb 28, 5:21 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKGrant, Jefferson39 min
Feb 28, 5:34 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGCrittenden, Mississippi, Poinsett41 min
Feb 28, 5:36 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningLZKClark, Grant, Hot Spring, Saline119 min
Feb 28, 5:40 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningLMKButler, Logan, Warren4 hr
Feb 28, 5:55 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningOHXHouston, Humphreys, Montgomery, Robertson, Stewart4 hr
Feb 28, 6:00 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningMEGMississippi2 hr
Feb 28, 6:01 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOHXDickson, Houston, Montgomery29 min
Feb 28, 6:12 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningLZKClark, Cleveland, Dallas, Grant, Pike3 hr
Feb 28, 6:16 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGShelby, Tipton28 min
Feb 28, 6:18 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningLZKArkansas, Grant, Jefferson, Lonoke, Prairie, Pulaski3 hr
Feb 28, 6:28 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningLZKArkansas, Cleveland, Jefferson, Lincoln, Monroe, Prairie3 hr
Feb 28, 6:30 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOHXCheatham, Montgomery, Robertson30 min
Feb 28, 6:35 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningMEGBenton, Henry, Obion, Weakley3 hr
Feb 28, 6:37 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGFayette, Haywood, Shelby, Tipton23 min
Feb 28, 6:40 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOHXDickson, Houston, Humphreys, Montgomery35 min
Feb 28, 6:42 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningOHXCheatham, Davidson, Dickson, Houston, Humphreys, Montgomery and 2 more5 hr
Feb 28, 6:47 PM CSTTornado WarningOHXDickson, Humphreys13 min
Feb 28, 6:48 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOHXCheatham, Davidson, Robertson, Sumner42 min
Feb 28, 7:01 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningLMKAllen, Barren, Logan, Simpson, Warren6 hr
Feb 28, 7:06 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOHXCheatham, Davidson, Dickson, Montgomery, Robertson24 min
Feb 28, 7:07 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKAllen, Barren, Monroe38 min
Feb 28, 7:15 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOHXMacon, Robertson, Sumner, Trousdale30 min
Feb 28, 7:24 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningOHXDickson, Hickman, Humphreys, Perry3 hr
Feb 28, 7:26 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningOHXCheatham, Davidson, Macon, Smith, Sumner, Trousdale and 2 more4 hr
Feb 28, 7:32 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOHXCheatham, Davidson, Robertson, Sumner, Williamson, Wilson43 min
Feb 28, 7:46 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningLZKArkansas, Calhoun, Cleveland, Dallas, Desha, Lincoln and 1 more2 hr
Feb 28, 8:05 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOHXSmith, Sumner, Trousdale, Wilson25 min
Feb 28, 8:06 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGBenton, Lafayette, Marshall, Panola, Tate, Union39 min
Feb 28, 8:14 PM CSTTornado WarningMEGBenton, Lafayette, Marshall, Tippah, Union46 min
Feb 28, 8:23 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningOHXDavidson, Maury, Rutherford, Smith, Williamson, Wilson3 hr
Feb 28, 8:42 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGAlcorn, Benton, Prentiss, Tippah, Tishomingo, Union28 min
Feb 28, 8:43 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningLZKCalhoun, Ouachita77 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Little Rock, AR (KLZK), launched 12:00Z, 8.4 hours before the alert went out and 72 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Little Rock, AR at 12:00Z on 2021-02-28Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 448 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Little Rock, AR at 12:00Z on 2021-02-28The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 396 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
448 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-16 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
525 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
65 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
396 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
396 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
2.8

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

175 
WWUS20 KWNS 282020
SEL3  
SPC WW 282020
ARZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-MSZ000-TNZ000-010400-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 13
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
220 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Central and Eastern Arkansas
  Southwest Kentucky
  Missouri Bootheel
  Northern Mississippi
  Western and Middle Tennessee

* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 220 PM until
  1000 PM CST.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes likely
  Widespread damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
    to 75 mph possible
  Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are forecast to develop across the watch
area through the afternoon and evening hours - with a few intense
thunderstorms expected.  Damaging winds are the most likely threat,
but large hail and a few tornadoes are also possible from the most
organized storms.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
north and south of a line from 20 miles southwest of Hot Springs AR
to 15 miles east northeast of Nashville TN. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 12...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
storm motion vector 25035.

...Hart

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 28, 9:59 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCHoward, Polk, Sevier91 min
Feb 28, 10:43 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCHempstead, Howard, Lafayette, Little River, Miller, Montgomery and 5 more7 hr
Feb 28, 1:01 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Clark, Clay, Cleburne, Cleveland, Conway and 32 more119 min
Feb 28, 2:25 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCHempstead, Howard, Little River, Miller, Pike, Sevier2 hr
Feb 28, 4:40 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Bradley, Calhoun, Clark, Cleveland, Craighead and 23 more95 min
Feb 28, 5:28 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCHempstead, Howard, Lafayette, Little River, Miller, Nevada and 2 more2 hr
Feb 28, 5:54 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCColumbia, Hempstead, Lafayette, Miller, Nevada, Union4 hr
Feb 28, 7:49 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCButler, Calloway, Christian, Graves, Logan, Marshall and 4 more116 min
Feb 27, 6:06 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBedford, Benton, Cannon, Carroll, Cheatham, Chester and 28 more2 hr

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Tennessee, 2021Tornado Watches in Arkansas, 2021Tornado Watches in Kentucky, 2021Every tornado watch in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.