Alert archive / Texas / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2021

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 14

February 28, 20216 counties in Arkansas; 9 parishes in Louisiana; 12 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Feb 28, 2021, 5:54 PM CST for 6 counties in Arkansas; 9 parishes in Louisiana; 12 counties in Texas. It was in force for 4 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Feb 28, 2021, 5:54 PM CST (23:54 UTC)
Expired
Feb 28, 2021, 10:00 PM CST
In force
4 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1.5 in
Strongest gust expected
55 kt
All 27 counties

Columbia County, AR, Hempstead County, AR, Lafayette County, AR, Miller County, AR, Nevada County, AR, Union County, AR, Bienville Parish, LA, Bossier Parish, LA, Caddo Parish, LA, Claiborne Parish, LA, De Soto Parish, LA, Lincoln Parish, LA, Red River Parish, LA, Union Parish, LA, Webster Parish, LA, Bowie County, TX, Cass County, TX, Cherokee County, TX, Gregg County, TX, Harrison County, TX, Marion County, TX, Nacogdoches County, TX, Panola County, TX, Rusk County, TX, Shelby County, TX, Smith County, TX, Upshur County, TX

The radar

The Shreveport radar (KSHV), 28 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:54 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
20%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
5%
Ten or more severe wind reports
30%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
20%
Ten or more severe hail reports
30%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
10%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
60%

Warnings issued inside it

3 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 28, 6:07 PM CSTTornado WarningSHVLafayette, Miller38 min
Feb 28, 6:44 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSHVLafayette, Miller31 min
Feb 28, 8:08 PM CSTTornado WarningSHVBossier, Caddo, Webster52 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Shreveport, LA (KSHV), launched 12:00Z, 11.9 hours before the alert went out and 19 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Shreveport, LA at 12:00Z on 2021-02-28Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 458 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Shreveport, LA at 12:00Z on 2021-02-28The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 321 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
458 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-126 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
573 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
53 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
321 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
414 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.4
Supercell composite
1.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

582 
WWUS20 KWNS 282350
SEL4  
SPC WW 282350
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-010400-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 14
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
550 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Southwest Arkansas
  Northwest Louisiana
  Northeast Texas

* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 550 PM until
  1000 PM CST.

* Primary threats include...
  Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible
  Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Multiple discrete cells should persist along a cold front
that will shift southeast this evening, and may consolidate into a
cluster across the Arklatex region. Large hail and damaging winds
should be the primary threats.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
statute miles north and south of a line from 15 miles east of El
Dorado AR to 35 miles southwest of Longview TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 12...WW 13...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
23030.

...Grams

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 28, 9:59 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCHoward, Polk, Sevier91 min
Feb 28, 10:43 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCHempstead, Howard, Lafayette, Little River, Miller, Montgomery and 5 more7 hr
Feb 28, 1:01 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Clark, Clay, Cleburne, Cleveland, Conway and 32 more119 min
Feb 28, 2:22 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCArkansas, Bradley, Calhoun, Clark, Clay, Cleburne and 32 more8 hr
Feb 28, 2:25 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCHempstead, Howard, Little River, Miller, Pike, Sevier2 hr
Feb 28, 4:40 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Bradley, Calhoun, Clark, Cleveland, Craighead and 23 more95 min
Feb 28, 5:28 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCHempstead, Howard, Lafayette, Little River, Miller, Nevada and 2 more2 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Texas, 2021Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Louisiana, 2021Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Arkansas, 2021Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.