Alert archive / Tennessee / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 141

February 28, 20216 counties in Kentucky; 22 counties in Tennessee

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 28, 2021, 7:16 PM CST for 6 counties in Kentucky; 22 counties in Tennessee. It was in force for 59 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Feb 28, 2021, 7:16 PM CST (01:16 UTC)
Expired
Feb 28, 2021, 8:15 PM CST
In force
59 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe thunderstorm watch 15
All 28 counties

Allen County, KY, Clinton County, KY, Cumberland County, KY, Metcalfe County, KY, Monroe County, KY, Wayne County, KY, Bedford County, TN, Bledsoe County, TN, Cannon County, TN, Clay County, TN, Coffee County, TN, Cumberland County, TN, DeKalb County, TN, Fentress County, TN, Grundy County, TN, Jackson County, TN, Macon County, TN, Overton County, TN, Pickett County, TN, Putnam County, TN, Rhea County, TN, Rutherford County, TN, Smith County, TN, Trousdale County, TN, Van Buren County, TN, Warren County, TN, White County, TN, Wilson County, TN

The radar

The Nashville radar (KOHX), 90 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:17 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 00:00Z, 1.3 hours before the alert went out and 95 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Nashville Metro, TN at 00:00Z on 2021-03-01Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 419 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Nashville Metro, TN at 00:00Z on 2021-03-01The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 220 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
419 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-8 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
979 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
66 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
220 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
278 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.7
Supercell composite
4.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

080 
ACUS11 KWNS 010116
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010116 
KYZ000-TNZ000-010215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0141
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0716 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021

Areas affected...0Portions of eastern Tennessee and southern
Kentucky

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 15...

Valid 010116Z - 010215Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 15
continues.

SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for portions
of eastern Tennessee and southern Kentucky.

DISCUSSION...Ongoing convection is expected to maintain some severe
potential as it continues east given the moist downstream
environment. Slightly cooler temperatures have yielded lower
instability across this region in the 250 to 500 J/kg range.
However, this will still be sufficient for some damaging wind
potential and a brief tornado or two, especially given the very
strong wind field with 50 to 55 kts of flow at 1km per OHX VWP.

..Bentley/Grams.. 03/01/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN...

LAT...LON   36728643 37008583 37008520 36958482 36698470 35808475
            35468497 35348594 35368655 36728643

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 28, 7:11 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCClinton, Cumberland, Monroe3 hr
Feb 28, 8:45 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClinton, Cumberland, Monroe90 min
Feb 28, 6:27 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBenton, Carroll, Cheatham, Chester, Crockett, Davidson and 29 more93 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Tennessee, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.