Alert archive / Pennsylvania / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2021

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 503

September 15, 20215 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Sep 15, 2021, 3:43 PM EDT for 5 states. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Sep 15, 2021, 3:43 PM EDT (19:43 UTC)
Expired
Sep 15, 2021, 10:00 PM EDT
In force
6 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1 in
Strongest gust expected
50 kt

Counties Capitol Planning Region, CT, Northwest Hills Planning Region, CT, Franklin County, MA, Hampden County, MA, Hampshire County, MA, Worcester County, MA, Sussex County, NJ, Warren County, NJ, Dutchess County, NY, Orange County, NY, Putnam County, NY, Berks County, PA, Carbon County, PA, Lehigh County, PA, Monroe County, PA, Northampton County, PA

The radar

The Albany radar (KENX), 102 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:42 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
10%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
2%
Ten or more severe wind reports
30%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
10%
Ten or more severe hail reports
20%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
5%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
50%

Warnings issued inside it

2 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Sep 15, 7:08 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIBerks37 min
Sep 15, 7:53 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBOXHampden, Hampshire, Middlesex, Worcester13 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Albany, NY (KALY), launched 12:00Z, 7.7 hours before the alert went out and 103 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Albany, NY at 12:00Z on 2021-09-15Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 856 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Albany, NY at 12:00Z on 2021-09-15The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 214 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
856 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-92 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
766 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
51 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
214 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
248 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.7
Supercell composite
6.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

035 
WWUS20 KWNS 151939
SEL3  
SPC WW 151939
CTZ000-MAZ000-NJZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-160200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 503
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
340 PM EDT Wed Sep 15 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Northern Connecticut
  Western and central Massachusetts
  Extreme northern New Jersey
  A small part of southeast New York
  East central Pennsylvania

* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 340 PM
  until 1000 PM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Isolated damaging wind gusts to 60 mph possible
  Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms along and ahead of a cold front will
continue to spread eastward through late evening.  The strongest
storms will be capable of producing occasional damaging outflow
gusts near 60 mph and isolated large hail near 1 inch diameter,
prior to the storms weakening early tonight.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 30
statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles east of Keene
NH to 35 miles west southwest of Allentown PA. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 501...WW 502...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
25030.

...Thompson

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Sep 15, 3:04 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPC116 min
Sep 15, 10:33 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBerkshire2 hr
Sep 15, 11:55 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBerkshire8 hr
Sep 15, 4:38 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBerkshire, Franklin, Hampshire67 min
Sep 15, 11:59 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBelknap, Carroll, Cheshire, Coos, Grafton, Hillsborough and 4 more2 hr
Sep 15, 1:15 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBelknap, Carroll, Cheshire, Coos, Grafton, Hillsborough and 4 more6 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Pennsylvania, 2021Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Massachusetts, 2021Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Connecticut, 2021Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.