Alert archive / Maine / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2021

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 502

September 15, 202113 counties in Maine; 10 counties in New Hampshire

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Sep 15, 2021, 1:15 PM EDT for 13 counties in Maine; 10 counties in New Hampshire. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Sep 15, 2021, 1:15 PM EDT (17:15 UTC)
Expired
Sep 15, 2021, 7:19 PM EDT
In force
6 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1.5 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 23 counties

Androscoggin County, ME, Cumberland County, ME, Franklin County, ME, Kennebec County, ME, Knox County, ME, Lincoln County, ME, Oxford County, ME, Penobscot County, ME, Piscataquis County, ME, Sagadahoc County, ME, Somerset County, ME, Waldo County, ME, York County, ME, Belknap County, NH, Carroll County, NH, Cheshire County, NH, Coos County, NH, Grafton County, NH, Hillsborough County, NH, Merrimack County, NH, Rockingham County, NH, Strafford County, NH, Sullivan County, NH

The radar

The Portland,ME radar (KGYX), 101 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:18 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
20%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
5%
Ten or more severe wind reports
60%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
20%
Ten or more severe hail reports
40%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
20%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
90%

Warnings issued inside it

16 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Sep 15, 2:18 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGYXCoos, Grafton57 min
Sep 15, 2:31 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGYXBelknap, Carroll, Coos, Grafton, Merrimack, Sullivan59 min
Sep 15, 2:33 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGYXFranklin, Oxford42 min
Sep 15, 3:04 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGYXFranklin, Oxford41 min
Sep 15, 3:04 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGYXBelknap, Grafton, Merrimack, Sullivan56 min
Sep 15, 3:22 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGYXBelknap, Carroll, Coos, Grafton, Merrimack, Sullivan53 min
Sep 15, 3:41 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGYXFranklin, Oxford, Somerset49 min
Sep 15, 4:07 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGYXCheshire, Hillsborough, Merrimack, Sullivan38 min
Sep 15, 4:09 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGYXCumberland, Oxford51 min
Sep 15, 4:28 PM EDTTornado WarningGYXCumberland, Oxford32 min
Sep 15, 4:44 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGYXCumberland, Oxford, York46 min
Sep 15, 4:57 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCARPenobscot, Piscataquis48 min
Sep 15, 4:58 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGYXSomerset29 min
Sep 15, 5:09 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGYXCheshire, Hillsborough, Merrimack51 min
Sep 15, 5:14 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGYXAndroscoggin, Cumberland, Kennebec, Oxford, Sagadahoc46 min
Sep 15, 5:29 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGYXCumberland, Oxford, York61 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Gray, ME (KGYX), launched 12:00Z, 5.3 hours before the alert went out and 101 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Gray, ME at 12:00Z on 2021-09-15Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 101 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Gray, ME at 12:00Z on 2021-09-15The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 299 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
101 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-167 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
468 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
54 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
299 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
318 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

600 
WWUS20 KWNS 151713
SEL2  
SPC WW 151713
MEZ000-NHZ000-160000-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 502
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
115 PM EDT Wed Sep 15 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Western and central Maine
  New Hampshire

* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 115 PM
  until 800 PM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
  Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Scattered severe storms are expected to develop this
afternoon and spread west-to-east across New Hampshire into Maine. 
The initial storms could be more discrete with some supercell
structures possible, though a gradual evolution into line segments
is expected.  Damaging winds of 60 to 70 mph and isolated large hail
of 1 to 1.5 inch diameter will be the most common threats, though a
tornado or two may occur with embedded circulations.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65
statute miles north and south of a line from 15 miles west of
Lebanon NH to 60 miles north northeast of Augusta ME. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 501...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
25035.

...Thompson

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Sep 15, 11:59 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAndroscoggin, Cumberland, Franklin, Kennebec, Lincoln, Oxford and 6 more2 hr
Sep 15, 4:38 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAndroscoggin, Cumberland, Kennebec, Oxford, Penobscot, Sagadahoc and 2 more67 min
Sep 15, 10:33 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAddison, Bennington, Chittenden, Orange, Rutland, Washington and 2 more2 hr
Sep 15, 11:55 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAddison, Bennington, Caledonia, Chittenden, Essex, Lamoille and 6 more8 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Maine, 2021Severe Thunderstorm Watches in New Hampshire, 2021Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.