Alert archive / Minnesota / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2021
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 393
The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Jul 26, 2021, 5:22 PM CDT for 28 counties in Minnesota; 12 counties in North Dakota; 5 counties in South Dakota. It was in force for 5 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 26, 2021, 5:22 PM CDT (22:22 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 26, 2021, 10:39 PM CDT
- In force
- 5 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Largest hail expected
- 4 in
- Strongest gust expected
- 70 kt
All 45 counties
Aitkin County, MN, Becker County, MN, Beltrami County, MN, Big Stone County, MN, Carlton County, MN, Cass County, MN, Clay County, MN, Clearwater County, MN, Crow Wing County, MN, Douglas County, MN, Grant County, MN, Hubbard County, MN, Itasca County, MN, Kanabec County, MN, Lake County, MN, Mahnomen County, MN, Mille Lacs County, MN, Morrison County, MN, Norman County, MN, Otter Tail County, MN, Pine County, MN, Pope County, MN, Saint Louis County, MN, Stevens County, MN, Todd County, MN, Traverse County, MN, Wadena County, MN, Wilkin County, MN, Barnes County, ND, Cass County, ND, Dickey County, ND, Emmons County, ND, Kidder County, ND, LaMoure County, ND, Logan County, ND, McIntosh County, ND, Ransom County, ND, Richland County, ND, Sargent County, ND, Stutsman County, ND, Brown County, SD, Day County, SD, Marshall County, SD, McPherson County, SD, Roberts County, SD
The radar
The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 71 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:24 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What SPC expected
The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.
- Two or more tornadoes
- 20%
- One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
- 5%
- Ten or more severe wind reports
- 50%
- One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
- 40%
- Ten or more severe hail reports
- 70%
- One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
- 70%
- Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
- 95%
Warnings issued inside it
18 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 26, 5:32 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | FGF | Beltrami | 43 min |
| Jul 26, 5:54 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | DLH | Cass, Itasca | 21 min |
| Jul 26, 6:14 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DLH | Itasca | 31 min |
| Jul 26, 6:15 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | DLH | Cass, Itasca | 30 min |
| Jul 26, 6:26 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DLH | Lake, Saint Louis | 64 min |
| Jul 26, 6:41 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DLH | Cass, Itasca | 34 min |
| Jul 26, 6:42 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BIS | Kidder, Logan, Stutsman | 33 min |
| Jul 26, 6:45 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DLH | Itasca | 45 min |
| Jul 26, 6:51 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DLH | Saint Louis | 24 min |
| Jul 26, 7:13 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DLH | Aitkin, Itasca, Saint Louis | 47 min |
| Jul 26, 7:14 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DLH | Aitkin, Cass, Itasca | 16 min |
| Jul 26, 7:29 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DLH | Aitkin, Itasca | 31 min |
| Jul 26, 7:30 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DLH | Carlton, Saint Louis | 60 min |
| Jul 26, 7:53 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DLH | Aitkin, Carlton, Pine, Saint Louis | 52 min |
| Jul 26, 8:49 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DLH | Itasca, Saint Louis | 26 min |
| Jul 26, 9:02 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DLH | Itasca, Saint Louis | 27 min |
| Jul 26, 9:07 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Beltrami | 23 min |
| Jul 26, 9:14 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DLH | Cass, Itasca | 31 min |
Discussions around it
SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.
- Mesoscale Discussion 1353 Severe potential...watch possible
- Mesoscale Discussion 1355 Severe potential...severe thunderstorm watch likely
- Mesoscale Discussion 1358 Severe thunderstorm watch 393
- Mesoscale Discussion 1359 Severe thunderstorm watch 393
- Mesoscale Discussion 1360 Severe thunderstorm watch 393...394
The nearest sounding before it
Aberdeen, SD (KABR), launched 12:00Z, 10.4 hours before the alert went out and 248 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 332 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -521 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1509 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 31 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 135 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 148 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.1
The text
As transmitted.
195
WWUS20 KWNS 262219
SEL3
SPC WW 262219
MNZ000-NDZ000-SDZ000-270500-
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 393
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
520 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northern to central Minnesota
Southeast North Dakota
Northeast South Dakota
* Effective this Monday afternoon from 520 PM until Midnight CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 4
inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Intense supercell over northwest Minnesota may become a
long-track, cyclic giant hail producing storm across north-central
Minnesota. Additional storms are expected along a front in
south-central to southeast North Dakota, with further development
farther east towards central Minnesota through the evening.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65
statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles north of
Mobridge SD to 30 miles north northeast of Duluth MN. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 392...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
4 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector
32025.
...GramsSPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 25, 9:49 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Big Stone, Chippewa, Douglas, Grant, Kandiyohi, Lac qui Parle and 6 more | 116 min |
| Jul 26, 5:00 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Aitkin, Beltrami, Carlton, Cass, Clearwater, Crow Wing and 9 more | 2 hr |
| Jul 26, 4:42 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barnes, Burleigh, Cass, Dickey, Emmons, Foster and 9 more | 2 hr |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Minnesota, 2021Severe Thunderstorm Watches in North Dakota, 2021Severe Thunderstorm Watches in South Dakota, 2021Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.