Alert archive / Minnesota / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2021

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 393

July 26, 202128 counties in Minnesota; 12 counties in North Dakota; 5 counties in South Dakota

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Jul 26, 2021, 5:22 PM CDT for 28 counties in Minnesota; 12 counties in North Dakota; 5 counties in South Dakota. It was in force for 5 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 26, 2021, 5:22 PM CDT (22:22 UTC)
Expired
Jul 26, 2021, 10:39 PM CDT
In force
5 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
4 in
Strongest gust expected
70 kt
All 45 counties

Aitkin County, MN, Becker County, MN, Beltrami County, MN, Big Stone County, MN, Carlton County, MN, Cass County, MN, Clay County, MN, Clearwater County, MN, Crow Wing County, MN, Douglas County, MN, Grant County, MN, Hubbard County, MN, Itasca County, MN, Kanabec County, MN, Lake County, MN, Mahnomen County, MN, Mille Lacs County, MN, Morrison County, MN, Norman County, MN, Otter Tail County, MN, Pine County, MN, Pope County, MN, Saint Louis County, MN, Stevens County, MN, Todd County, MN, Traverse County, MN, Wadena County, MN, Wilkin County, MN, Barnes County, ND, Cass County, ND, Dickey County, ND, Emmons County, ND, Kidder County, ND, LaMoure County, ND, Logan County, ND, McIntosh County, ND, Ransom County, ND, Richland County, ND, Sargent County, ND, Stutsman County, ND, Brown County, SD, Day County, SD, Marshall County, SD, McPherson County, SD, Roberts County, SD

The radar

The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 71 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:24 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
20%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
5%
Ten or more severe wind reports
50%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
40%
Ten or more severe hail reports
70%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
70%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
95%

Warnings issued inside it

18 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 26, 5:32 PM CDTTornado WarningFGFBeltrami43 min
Jul 26, 5:54 PM CDTTornado WarningDLHCass, Itasca21 min
Jul 26, 6:14 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDLHItasca31 min
Jul 26, 6:15 PM CDTTornado WarningDLHCass, Itasca30 min
Jul 26, 6:26 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDLHLake, Saint Louis64 min
Jul 26, 6:41 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDLHCass, Itasca34 min
Jul 26, 6:42 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBISKidder, Logan, Stutsman33 min
Jul 26, 6:45 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDLHItasca45 min
Jul 26, 6:51 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDLHSaint Louis24 min
Jul 26, 7:13 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDLHAitkin, Itasca, Saint Louis47 min
Jul 26, 7:14 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDLHAitkin, Cass, Itasca16 min
Jul 26, 7:29 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDLHAitkin, Itasca31 min
Jul 26, 7:30 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDLHCarlton, Saint Louis60 min
Jul 26, 7:53 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDLHAitkin, Carlton, Pine, Saint Louis52 min
Jul 26, 8:49 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDLHItasca, Saint Louis26 min
Jul 26, 9:02 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDLHItasca, Saint Louis27 min
Jul 26, 9:07 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGFBeltrami23 min
Jul 26, 9:14 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDLHCass, Itasca31 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Aberdeen, SD (KABR), launched 12:00Z, 10.4 hours before the alert went out and 248 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Aberdeen, SD at 12:00Z on 2021-07-26Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 332 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Aberdeen, SD at 12:00Z on 2021-07-26The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 135 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
332 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-521 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1509 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
31 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
135 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
148 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

195 
WWUS20 KWNS 262219
SEL3  
SPC WW 262219
MNZ000-NDZ000-SDZ000-270500-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 393
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
520 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Northern to central Minnesota
  Southeast North Dakota
  Northeast South Dakota

* Effective this Monday afternoon from 520 PM until Midnight CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 4
    inches in diameter likely
  Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
    mph possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Intense supercell over northwest Minnesota may become a
long-track, cyclic giant hail producing storm across north-central
Minnesota. Additional storms are expected along a front in
south-central to southeast North Dakota, with further development
farther east towards central Minnesota through the evening.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65
statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles north of
Mobridge SD to 30 miles north northeast of Duluth MN. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 392...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
4 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector
32025.

...Grams

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 25, 9:49 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBig Stone, Chippewa, Douglas, Grant, Kandiyohi, Lac qui Parle and 6 more116 min
Jul 26, 5:00 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAitkin, Beltrami, Carlton, Cass, Clearwater, Crow Wing and 9 more2 hr
Jul 26, 4:42 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarnes, Burleigh, Cass, Dickey, Emmons, Foster and 9 more2 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Minnesota, 2021Severe Thunderstorm Watches in North Dakota, 2021Severe Thunderstorm Watches in South Dakota, 2021Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.