Alert archive / Pennsylvania / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2021

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 374

July 12, 20215 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Jul 12, 2021, 3:34 PM EDT for 5 states. It was in force for 5 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 12, 2021, 3:34 PM EDT (19:34 UTC)
Expired
Jul 12, 2021, 8:49 PM EDT
In force
5 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 51 counties

New Castle County, DE, Baltimore County, MD, Carroll County, MD, Cecil County, MD, City of Baltimore, MD, Frederick County, MD, Harford County, MD, Howard County, MD, Montgomery County, MD, Bergen County, NJ, Burlington County, NJ, Camden County, NJ, Essex County, NJ, Gloucester County, NJ, Hudson County, NJ, Hunterdon County, NJ, Mercer County, NJ, Middlesex County, NJ, Monmouth County, NJ, Morris County, NJ, Ocean County, NJ, Passaic County, NJ, Salem County, NJ, Somerset County, NJ, Sussex County, NJ, Union County, NJ, Warren County, NJ, Bronx County, NY, Kings County, NY, New York County, NY, Queens County, NY, Richmond County, NY, Adams County, PA, Berks County, PA, Bucks County, PA, Carbon County, PA, Chester County, PA, Cumberland County, PA, Dauphin County, PA, Delaware County, PA, Juniata County, PA, Lancaster County, PA, Lebanon County, PA, Lehigh County, PA, Monroe County, PA, Montgomery County, PA, Northampton County, PA, Perry County, PA, Philadelphia County, PA, Schuylkill County, PA, York County, PA

The radar

The Philadelphia radar (KDIX), 157 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:34 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
10%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
2%
Ten or more severe wind reports
50%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
20%
Ten or more severe hail reports
5%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
5%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
60%

Warnings issued inside it

25 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 12, 3:55 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPDauphin, Perry35 min
Jul 12, 3:56 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningCTPLancaster2 hr
Jul 12, 3:57 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPLancaster63 min
Jul 12, 3:59 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPCumberland, York46 min
Jul 12, 4:11 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPCumberland, Dauphin, Lancaster, Lebanon, York34 min
Jul 12, 4:33 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIMonmouth, Ocean42 min
Jul 12, 4:42 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPDauphin, Lancaster, Lebanon, York63 min
Jul 12, 5:08 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIBurlington, Camden, Mercer67 min
Jul 12, 5:29 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPLancaster61 min
Jul 12, 5:41 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIChester34 min
Jul 12, 5:51 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOKXBergen, Passaic39 min
Jul 12, 5:57 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIMorris, Sussex63 min
Jul 12, 6:01 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningPHICamden102 min
Jul 12, 6:09 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningOKXBergen, Essex, Passaic3 hr
Jul 12, 6:15 PM EDTTornado WarningOKXBergen, Passaic45 min
Jul 12, 6:18 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningPHIDelaware84 min
Jul 12, 6:28 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXBaltimore, Harford47 min
Jul 12, 6:52 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIMorris, Sussex34 min
Jul 12, 6:58 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOKXBergen, Essex, Passaic41 min
Jul 12, 7:01 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXCecil20 min
Jul 12, 7:06 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHINew Castle69 min
Jul 12, 7:08 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXBaltimore, Cecil, Harford52 min
Jul 12, 7:11 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningPHIMorris, Sussex35 min
Jul 12, 7:23 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXBaltimore, Cecil, Harford52 min
Jul 12, 7:55 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningLWXCecil, Harford77 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Washington/Dulle, VA (KIAD), launched 12:00Z, 7.6 hours before the alert went out and 195 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Washington/Dulle, VA at 12:00Z on 2021-07-12Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 974 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Washington/Dulle, VA at 12:00Z on 2021-07-12The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 10 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
974 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-83 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
724 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
21 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
10 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
53 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.1
Supercell composite
0.8

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

984 
WWUS20 KWNS 121931
SEL4  
SPC WW 121931
DEZ000-MDZ000-NJZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-VAZ000-CWZ000-130300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 374
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
330 PM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  northern Delaware
  northern Maryland
  New Jersey
  southeast New York
  southeast Pennsylvania
  northeast Virginia
  Coastal Waters

* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 330 PM until
  1100 PM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Storms developing along and east of the central
Appalachians will spread east and become capable of producing
isolated damaging wind over a portion of the Middle Atlantic and
Northeast States this afternoon and early evening.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles west of
Harrisburg PA to 25 miles northeast of Lakehurst NJ. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
26035.

...Dial

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 12, 1:32 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCKent, New Castle, Sussex88 min
Jul 12, 7:25 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCNew Castle2 hr
Jul 11, 8:58 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCarroll, Washington62 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Pennsylvania, 2021Severe Thunderstorm Watches in New Jersey, 2021Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Maryland, 2021Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.