Alert archive / Texas / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2021

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 198

May 23, 20215 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at May 23, 2021, 4:07 PM MDT for 5 states. It was in force for 7 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 23, 2021, 4:07 PM MDT (22:07 UTC)
Expired
May 23, 2021, 11:00 PM MDT
In force
7 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
2 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 25 counties

Baca County, CO, Bent County, CO, Las Animas County, CO, Otero County, CO, Prowers County, CO, Grant County, KS, Hamilton County, KS, Kearny County, KS, Morton County, KS, Stanton County, KS, Stevens County, KS, Curry County, NM, Harding County, NM, Quay County, NM, Union County, NM, Cimarron County, OK, Texas County, OK, Dallam County, TX, Deaf Smith County, TX, Hartley County, TX, Moore County, TX, Oldham County, TX, Potter County, TX, Randall County, TX, Sherman County, TX

The radar

The Amarillo radar (KAMA), 152 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:08 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
20%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
5%
Ten or more severe wind reports
40%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
20%
Ten or more severe hail reports
40%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
30%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
70%

Warnings issued inside it

8 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 23, 4:39 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAMADallam, Hartley, Oldham39 min
May 23, 5:05 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAMACimarron38 min
May 23, 7:09 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPUBBent, Kiowa36 min
May 23, 7:46 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPUBBent, Kiowa, Prowers29 min
May 23, 7:47 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningABQGuadalupe, Quay, San Miguel43 min
May 23, 8:03 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningABQUnion27 min
May 23, 8:39 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAMADallam, Hartley66 min
May 23, 9:40 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAMADallam, Hartley44 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 12:00Z, 10.1 hours before the alert went out and 153 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Amarillo Airport, TX at 12:00Z on 2021-05-23Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 641 joules per kilogram.LCLEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Amarillo Airport, TX at 12:00Z on 2021-05-23The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 79 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
641 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
510 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
20 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
79 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
98 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

327 
WWUS20 KWNS 232205
SEL8  
SPC WW 232205
COZ000-KSZ000-NMZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-240500-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 198
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
510 PM CDT Sun May 23 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Southeast Colorado
  Southwest Kansas
  Northeast New Mexico
  Western Oklahoma Panhandle
  Western Texas Panhandle

* Effective this Sunday afternoon from 510 PM until Midnight CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
    inches in diameter possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms are expected to form late this
afternoon along and ahead of the dryline across the watch area, and
persist through much of the evening.  The strongest cells will pose
a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles southeast of
Tucumcari NM to 20 miles northeast of Lamar CO. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 196...WW 197...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
24025.

...Hart

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 23, 10:53 AM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Arapahoe, Broomfield, Denver, Douglas, Elbert and 6 more2 hr
May 23, 12:06 PM MDTTornado WatchSPCAdams, Arapahoe, Cheyenne, Crowley, Denver, Elbert and 11 more8 hr
May 23, 1:57 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCKit Carson, Logan, Morgan, Phillips, Sedgwick, Washington and 1 more2 hr
May 23, 2:41 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaca, Bent, Prowers94 min
May 23, 4:37 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCheyenne, Kiowa, Kit Carson, Lincoln, Logan, Phillips and 3 more113 min
May 22, 7:21 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCDallas, Denton, Ellis, Johnson, Kaufman, Parker and 2 more54 min
May 23, 1:59 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCrane, Ector, Loving, Pecos, Reeves, Ward and 1 more91 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Texas, 2021Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Kansas, 2021Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Colorado, 2021Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.