Alert archive / Texas / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2021

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 162

May 10, 202120 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at May 10, 2021, 1:48 PM CDT for 20 counties in Texas. It was in force for 10 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 10, 2021, 1:48 PM CDT (18:48 UTC)
Expired
May 11, 2021, 12:00 AM CDT
In force
10 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
4 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt

Counties Atascosa County, TX, Bandera County, TX, Bexar County, TX, Crockett County, TX, Dimmit County, TX, Edwards County, TX, Frio County, TX, Kendall County, TX, Kerr County, TX, Kimble County, TX, Kinney County, TX, Maverick County, TX, Medina County, TX, Menard County, TX, Real County, TX, Schleicher County, TX, Sutton County, TX, Uvalde County, TX, Val Verde County, TX, Zavala County, TX

The radar

The Laughlin AFB radar (KDFX), 86 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:51 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
20%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
2%
Ten or more severe wind reports
40%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
20%
Ten or more severe hail reports
70%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
70%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
90%

Warnings issued inside it

14 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 10, 3:44 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEWXEdwards, Real46 min
May 10, 4:21 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEWXBandera, Kerr, Real37 min
May 10, 4:46 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSJTKimble59 min
May 10, 5:18 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSJTKimble, Menard57 min
May 10, 5:51 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSJTConcho, McCulloch, Mason, Menard24 min
May 10, 6:00 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEWXEdwards, Val Verde60 min
May 10, 6:17 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEWXEdwards, Val Verde58 min
May 10, 6:59 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEWXDimmit, Maverick, Zavala61 min
May 10, 7:14 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEWXEdwards16 min
May 10, 7:17 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSJTSutton37 min
May 10, 8:06 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEWXEdwards, Kinney, Maverick, Real, Uvalde, Zavala54 min
May 10, 8:31 PM CDTTornado WarningEWXKinney, Uvalde16 min
May 10, 8:58 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEWXBandera, Edwards, Kerr, Kinney, Medina, Real and 1 more62 min
May 10, 9:52 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEWXBandera, Medina, Uvalde53 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Del Rio, TX (KDRT), launched 12:00Z, 6.8 hours before the alert went out and 111 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Del Rio, TX at 12:00Z on 2021-05-10Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 2989 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Del Rio, TX at 12:00Z on 2021-05-10The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 151 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
2989 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-152 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
828 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
47 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
151 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
205 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.6
Supercell composite
4.7

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

174 
WWUS20 KWNS 101846
SEL2  
SPC WW 101846
TXZ000-110300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 162
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
145 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Parts of the Edwards Plateua and south central Texas

* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 145 PM until
  1000 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 4
    inches in diameter likely
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm development is expected from about
2-3pm CDT along a slow-moving front, and additional severe storms
will form in Mexico and cross the border later this
afternoon/evening.  The storm environment favors splitting
supercells capable of producing very large to giant hail (3-4+"
diameter), damaging gusts, and possibly an isolated tornado.  Some
clustering of storms may occur later this evening, which would be
accompanied by an increase in the threat for damaging winds.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles northwest of
Junction TX to 75 miles southeast of Del Rio TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
4 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 650. Mean storm motion vector
29020.

...Thompson

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 9, 8:06 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnderson, Bell, Blanco, Bosque, Burnet, Comal and 32 more114 min
May 10, 10:28 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCDelta, Fannin, Grayson, Lamar, Red River92 min
May 10, 1:04 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCEdwards, Kinney, Real, Terrell, Val Verde116 min
May 10, 2:07 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCGrimes, Houston, Madison, Polk, San Jacinto, Trinity and 2 more113 min
May 10, 5:47 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrazos, Grimes, Jasper, Montgomery, Polk, San Jacinto and 2 more88 min
May 10, 6:05 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBee, Dimmit, Duval, Jim Wells, La Salle, Live Oak and 2 more2 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Texas, 2021Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.