Alert archive / North Dakota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 884
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 8, 2021, 1:06 PM CDT for 7 counties in North Dakota; Campbell County, Corson County, South Dakota. It was in force for 84 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 8, 2021, 1:06 PM CDT (18:06 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 8, 2021, 2:30 PM CDT
- In force
- 84 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch unlikely
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
Counties Burleigh County, ND, Emmons County, ND, McLean County, ND, Morton County, ND, Oliver County, ND, Sheridan County, ND, Sioux County, ND, Campbell County, SD, Corson County, SD
The radar
The Bismarck radar (KBIS), 42 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:04 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 12:00Z, 6.1 hours before the alert went out and 43 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 534 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -518 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1161 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 35 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 267 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 165 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- -1.5
The text
As transmitted.
288
ACUS11 KWNS 081807
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081806
NDZ000-SDZ000-081930-
Mesoscale Discussion 0884
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0106 PM CDT Tue Jun 08 2021
Areas affected...Central North Dakota into north central South
Dakota
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 081806Z - 081930Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Large hail and possible strong/damaging wind gusts will
likely continue this afternoon in central North Dakota.
Uncertainties with storm persistence and overall coverage keep
confidence in the need for a WW low.
DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms has been ongoing for several hours.
Operational CAM guidance has done a very poor job of capturing this
activity. Hourly HRRR guidance continues to try and weaken/dissipate
the complex with each successive run. Given the continued influx of
higher theta-e air, it seems reasonable that this activity will
likely survive longer than guidance suggests.
Storm motion has generally been somewhat westward to southwestward
into the instability axis in central South Dakota. This motion has
taken storms into somewhat greater effective shear at around 25-30
kts. Recent KBIS radar imagery shows that two supercells have
increased in organization over the last hour. However, their radar
presentation also suggests they may be somewhat elevated above
outflow from last night's convection in the area. Very steep
mid-level lapse rates will support large hail with storms that
remain organized. A wind gust threat would also be present if storms
eventually become surface-based.
While additional storms may develop along the outflow, this scenario
also is uncertain. Trends will be monitored, but no WW is expected
given the uncertainties and limited spatial extent of the threat.
..Wendt/Guyer.. 06/08/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...
LAT...LON 45410147 46820167 47630176 48120125 47850020 46869982
45589986 45220042 45180111 45410147SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 7, 8:35 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barnes, Cass, Dickey, LaMoure, Logan, McIntosh and 1 more | 85 min |
| Jun 7, 11:33 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Dickey, LaMoure, Ransom, Richland, Sargent | 87 min |
| Jun 8, 3:36 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barnes, LaMoure, Ransom, Richland, Sargent, Stutsman | 84 min |
| Jun 8, 3:39 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Divide, Golden Valley, McKenzie, Williams | 3 hr |
| Jun 8, 6:15 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Adams, Billings, Bowman, Divide, Dunn, Golden Valley and 5 more | 7 hr |
| Jun 8, 3:24 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bennett, Butte, Custer, Haakon, Harding, Jackson and 6 more | 96 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in North Dakota, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in South Dakota, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.