Mesoscale Discussion 879

Issued

Jun 8, 2021, 3:36 AM CDT (08:36 UTC)

Expired

Jun 8, 2021, 5:00 AM CDT

In force

84 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe potential...watch unlikely

Chance of a watch

5%

Counties Barnes County, ND, LaMoure County, ND, Ransom County, ND, Richland County, ND, Sargent County, ND, Stutsman County, ND

The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 115 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:39 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

833 
ACUS11 KWNS 080836
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080836 
NDZ000-081000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0879
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0336 AM CDT Tue Jun 08 2021

Areas affected...Parts of southeastern North Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 080836Z - 081000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Ongoing strong storm development, which may be
occasionally producing severe hail, is expected to finally diminish
around daybreak, if not before.

DISCUSSION...Above rain-cooled surface air, and a near-surface layer
impacted by a now waning convective cluster off to the
east-northeast, a quasi-stationary area of vigorous thunderstorm
development persists near and to the southeast of the Jamestown
vicinity.  This is focused within a persistent zone of lower/mid
tropospheric warm advection, at least partially enhanced by a 30-35
kt southerly 850 mb jet.  

In the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates near the northeastern
periphery of a plume of elevated mixed-layer air, lifted parcels
appear moist enough to support CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg.  Aided
by modest deep-layer shear, largely due to pronounced veering of
winds with height, stronger storms probably continue to be
accompanied by occasional severe hail, based on MRMS Mesh.  This
could continue another hour or two, before a combination of diurnal
weakening of the low-level jet and rising heights associated with
large-scale ridging building across the northern Great Plains
increasingly suppresses convection toward 12-13Z.

..Kerr/Edwards.. 06/08/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON   47189890 47139788 46719698 46219671 45989756 46149837
            46469923 47189890

Mesoscale Discussions in North Dakota, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.