Alert archive / Indiana / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 88
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 15, 2021, 10:44 AM CST for 5 states. It was in force for 6 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Feb 15, 2021, 10:44 AM CST (16:44 UTC)
- Expired
- Feb 15, 2021, 4:45 PM CST
- In force
- 6 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Heavy snow
All 180 counties
Alexander County, IL, Bond County, IL, Clark County, IL, Clay County, IL, Clinton County, IL, Coles County, IL, Crawford County, IL, Cumberland County, IL, Douglas County, IL, Edgar County, IL, Edwards County, IL, Effingham County, IL, Fayette County, IL, Franklin County, IL, Gallatin County, IL, Hamilton County, IL, Hardin County, IL, Jackson County, IL, Jasper County, IL, Jefferson County, IL, Johnson County, IL, Lawrence County, IL, Madison County, IL, Marion County, IL, Massac County, IL, Monroe County, IL, Montgomery County, IL, Moultrie County, IL, Perry County, IL, Pope County, IL, Pulaski County, IL, Randolph County, IL, Richland County, IL, Saint Clair County, IL, Saline County, IL, Shelby County, IL, Union County, IL, Vermilion County, IL, Wabash County, IL, Washington County, IL, Wayne County, IL, White County, IL, Williamson County, IL, Adams County, IN, Bartholomew County, IN, Blackford County, IN, Boone County, IN, Brown County, IN, Carroll County, IN, Cass County, IN, Clark County, IN, Clay County, IN, Clinton County, IN, Crawford County, IN, Daviess County, IN, Dearborn County, IN, Decatur County, IN, Delaware County, IN, Dubois County, IN, Fayette County, IN, Floyd County, IN, Fountain County, IN, Franklin County, IN, Gibson County, IN, Grant County, IN, Greene County, IN, Hamilton County, IN, Hancock County, IN, Harrison County, IN, Hendricks County, IN, Henry County, IN, Howard County, IN, Jackson County, IN, Jay County, IN, Jefferson County, IN, Jennings County, IN, Johnson County, IN, Knox County, IN, Lawrence County, IN, Madison County, IN, Marion County, IN, Martin County, IN, Miami County, IN, Monroe County, IN, Montgomery County, IN, Morgan County, IN, Ohio County, IN, Orange County, IN, Owen County, IN, Parke County, IN, Perry County, IN, Pike County, IN, Posey County, IN, Putnam County, IN, Randolph County, IN, Ripley County, IN, Rush County, IN, Scott County, IN, Shelby County, IN, Spencer County, IN, Sullivan County, IN, Switzerland County, IN, Tippecanoe County, IN, Tipton County, IN, Union County, IN, Vanderburgh County, IN, Vermillion County, IN, Vigo County, IN, Warren County, IN, Warrick County, IN, Washington County, IN, Wayne County, IN, Wells County, IN, White County, IN, Ballard County, KY, Boone County, KY, Breckinridge County, KY, Bullitt County, KY, Butler County, KY, Caldwell County, KY, Campbell County, KY, Carroll County, KY, Christian County, KY, Crittenden County, KY, Daviess County, KY, Edmonson County, KY, Gallatin County, KY, Grant County, KY, Grayson County, KY, Hancock County, KY, Hardin County, KY, Henderson County, KY, Henry County, KY, Hopkins County, KY, Jefferson County, KY, Kenton County, KY, Livingston County, KY, Logan County, KY, Lyon County, KY, Marshall County, KY, McCracken County, KY, McLean County, KY, Meade County, KY, Muhlenberg County, KY, Ohio County, KY, Oldham County, KY, Owen County, KY, Pendleton County, KY, Shelby County, KY, Spencer County, KY, Todd County, KY, Trigg County, KY, Trimble County, KY, Union County, KY, Webster County, KY, Bollinger County, MO, Cape Girardeau County, MO, Madison County, MO, Perry County, MO, Sainte Genevieve County, MO, Scott County, MO, Auglaize County, OH, Butler County, OH, Champaign County, OH, Clark County, OH, Clermont County, OH, Clinton County, OH, Darke County, OH, Fayette County, OH, Greene County, OH, Hamilton County, OH, Logan County, OH, Madison County, OH, Mercer County, OH, Miami County, OH, Montgomery County, OH, Preble County, OH, Shelby County, OH, Union County, OH, Warren County, OH
The radar
The Evansville,IN radar (KVWX), 41 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:49 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Lincoln, IL (KILX), launched 12:00Z, 4.7 hours before the alert went out and 223 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 677 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 68 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 136 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 97 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
928
ACUS11 KWNS 151645
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151644
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-152245-
Mesoscale Discussion 0088
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1044 AM CST Mon Feb 15 2021
Areas affected...southeastern Missouri...northern/western
Kentucky...southern Illinois...much of Indiana...southwestern Ohio
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 151644Z - 152245Z
SUMMARY...Heavy snow near the Mississippi River will spread
northeastward across much of the discussion area over the next 3-6
hours. Accumulations of 1-2 inches per hour are possible in heavier
bands. A few areas of sleet may also mix in with the snow across
Kentucky.
DISCUSSION...Lift associated with an approaching mid-level wave over
Oklahoma has resulted in a broad area of moderate to heavy
precipitation from eastern Arkansas/western Tennessee southward to
the central Gulf Coast. Much of the precipitation has fallen as
heavy snow, though sleet has mixed in with the precipitation across
western Tennessee at times. Additional bands of precipitation are
developing in southern Illinois and southeastern Missouri currently,
where recent METARs indicate heavy snow in Carbondale, IL; St.
Louis, MO; and Poplar Bluff, MO. This snow has developed roughly
1-2 hours faster than this morning's 12Z model guidance.
With broad-scale lift approaching the discussion area, the
expectation is that snowfall rates will continue to intensify as the
expanding precipitation shield moves northeastward across the
discussion area. Areas of 1-2 inch/hour snow rates are expected in
heavier bands. Model forecast soundings across Kentucky indicate a
warm layer between H7-85 that may allow for sleet to occasionally
mix in with snow across Kentucky.
..Cook.. 02/15/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...
LAT...LON 37989043 37429056 37019010 36888883 36788750 36878658
37568584 38728419 39408335 40378329 40768462 40798682
39278964 37989043SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 15, 5:57 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alexander, Massac, Pope, Pulaski | 6 hr |
| Feb 15, 2:52 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Brown, Bureau, Calhoun, Cass, Champaign, Christian and 36 more | 6 hr |
| Feb 15, 9:28 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adair, Boyle, Casey, Clay, Clinton, Cumberland and 20 more | 6 hr |
| Feb 15, 1:44 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Boyd, Carter, Elliott, Fleming, Greenup, Lawrence and 2 more | 6 hr |
| Feb 15, 3:53 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adair, Allen, Anderson, Barren, Bath, Bourbon and 40 more | 4 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Indiana, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Illinois, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.