Mesoscale Discussion 93

Issued

Feb 15, 2021, 2:52 PM CST (20:52 UTC)

Expired

Feb 15, 2021, 8:45 PM CST

In force

6 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Heavy snow

The Indianapolis radar (KIND), 122 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:53 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

660 
ACUS11 KWNS 152053
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152052 
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-160245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0093
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 PM CST Mon Feb 15 2021

Areas affected...central/northern Illinois...southern Lower
Michigan...northern/central Indiana...northern Ohio

Concerning...Heavy snow 

Valid 152052Z - 160245Z

SUMMARY...Moderate to occasionally heavy snow will overspread much
of the discussion area from the southwest over the course of the
afternoon/evening.  Localized areas will received 1-2+ inch per hour
snow rates.

DISCUSSION...Broad, large-scale lift associated with a mid-level
wave across Kansas/Oklahoma continued to maintain a broad
precipitation shield across much of the Midwest currently.  The
precipitation continues to fall as snow (heavy at times) across much
of southern Illinois and Indiana.  The precip shield is outpacing
many models in its northeastward progression and will overspread
much of the discussion area from south to north over the next
several hours.

Within the precipitation shield, it appears that a subtle shortwave
over western Tennessee has provided forcing aloft for enhanced
snowfall rates across southern Illinois and Indiana.  Most of the
heavy snow reports have been concentrated in this area, and
localized banding may result in 2+ inch/hour rates as this area
spreads northeastward into Indiana/northwestern Ohio over the course
of the afternoon.

Farther west, a few bands have also produced heavier snow from the
St. Louis area through central Illinois.  This axis of snow should
shift northeastward toward the Chicago Metro area and portions of
southern Lower Michigan over the next several hours, with 1
inch/hour rates probable beneath heavier bands.

..Cook.. 02/15/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...
LSX...DVN...

LAT...LON   38879034 39139087 39659100 40539065 41498958 42318772
            42858529 42878301 42098146 41338118 40598200 40338307
            40158737 39548925 38879034

Mesoscale Discussions in Illinois, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Indiana, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Ohio, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.