Alert archive / Ohio / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 91
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 15, 2021, 2:44 PM EST for 5 states. It was in force for 6 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Feb 15, 2021, 2:44 PM EST (19:44 UTC)
- Expired
- Feb 15, 2021, 8:45 PM EST
- In force
- 6 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Freezing rain
All 90 counties
Boyd County, KY, Carter County, KY, Elliott County, KY, Fleming County, KY, Greenup County, KY, Lawrence County, KY, Lewis County, KY, Rowan County, KY, Allegany County, MD, Garrett County, MD, Adams County, OH, Athens County, OH, Belmont County, OH, Carroll County, OH, Columbiana County, OH, Coshocton County, OH, Fairfield County, OH, Gallia County, OH, Guernsey County, OH, Harrison County, OH, Highland County, OH, Hocking County, OH, Jackson County, OH, Jefferson County, OH, Lawrence County, OH, Licking County, OH, Mahoning County, OH, Meigs County, OH, Monroe County, OH, Morgan County, OH, Muskingum County, OH, Noble County, OH, Perry County, OH, Pickaway County, OH, Pike County, OH, Ross County, OH, Scioto County, OH, Stark County, OH, Tuscarawas County, OH, Vinton County, OH, Washington County, OH, Allegheny County, PA, Armstrong County, PA, Beaver County, PA, Bedford County, PA, Blair County, PA, Butler County, PA, Cambria County, PA, Centre County, PA, Clarion County, PA, Clearfield County, PA, Fayette County, PA, Franklin County, PA, Fulton County, PA, Greene County, PA, Huntingdon County, PA, Indiana County, PA, Jefferson County, PA, Juniata County, PA, Lawrence County, PA, Mifflin County, PA, Perry County, PA, Somerset County, PA, Washington County, PA, Westmoreland County, PA, Brooke County, WV, Cabell County, WV, Calhoun County, WV, Doddridge County, WV, Gilmer County, WV, Hancock County, WV, Harrison County, WV, Jackson County, WV, Lincoln County, WV, Marion County, WV, Marshall County, WV, Mason County, WV, Monongalia County, WV, Ohio County, WV, Pleasants County, WV, Preston County, WV, Putnam County, WV, Ritchie County, WV, Roane County, WV, Taylor County, WV, Tyler County, WV, Wayne County, WV, Wetzel County, WV, Wirt County, WV, Wood County, WV
The radar
The Pittsburgh radar (KPBZ), 110 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:47 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Pittsburgh, PA (KPIT), launched 12:00Z, 7.7 hours before the alert went out and 105 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 514 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 61 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 113 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 252 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
465
ACUS11 KWNS 151945
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151944
PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-160145-
Mesoscale Discussion 0091
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0144 PM CST Mon Feb 15 2021
Areas affected...northeastern Kentucky...southern/eastern
Ohio...western/central Pennsylvania...northern West Virginia
Concerning...Freezing rain
Valid 151944Z - 160145Z
SUMMARY...Precipitation will expand from southwest to northeast
across the discussion area. 0.05 to 0.10 inch per 3-hour
accumulations of freezing rain are expected.
DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic imagery continues to indicate an expanding
precipitation shield across the majority of the state of Kentucky
atop a shallow, sub-freezing airmass. The precipitation continues
to outpace northeastward-movement of most model guidance outside of
certain CAMS (Nam3, HRRR). These CAMS indicate continued
northeastward progression of icing (freezing rain and some sleet)
into Ohio/northern West Virginia over the next hour or so and
southwestern Pennsylvania after around 22Z or so. Upstream
observations have indicated localized precipitation rates ranging as
high as 0.05 to 0.10 inch per hour in heavier bands/convective
elements, and the expectation is that this will continue with
northeastward extent across the discussion area over the next 6
hours. At least 3-6 hours of icing is expected areawide.
Additionally, a few areas of sleet (or even snow) are expected to
mix in with freezing rain - especially across the northern extent of
the discussion area where deeper cold air is present.
..Cook.. 02/15/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...
LAT...LON 39538328 40238243 40938123 41277968 41337835 41037733
40337715 39857766 39557870 39427989 38408161 37918224
38078339 38448382 38948383 39538328SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 15, 6:57 AM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Ballard, Caldwell, Calloway, Carlisle, Crittenden, Fulton and 7 more | 6 hr |
| Feb 15, 10:28 AM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adair, Boyle, Casey, Clay, Clinton, Cumberland and 20 more | 6 hr |
| Feb 15, 11:44 AM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Ballard, Boone, Breckinridge, Bullitt, Butler, Caldwell and 35 more | 6 hr |
| Feb 15, 4:53 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adair, Allen, Anderson, Barren, Bath, Bourbon and 40 more | 4 hr |
| Feb 15, 3:52 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allen, Ashland, Auglaize, Crawford, Cuyahoga, Defiance and 26 more | 6 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Ohio, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in West Virginia, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Pennsylvania, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.