Alert archive / Kentucky / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 95
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 15, 2021, 3:53 PM CST for 46 counties in Kentucky; 13 counties in Tennessee. It was in force for 4 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Feb 15, 2021, 3:53 PM CST (21:53 UTC)
- Expired
- Feb 15, 2021, 8:00 PM CST
- In force
- 4 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Freezing rain
All 59 counties
Adair County, KY, Allen County, KY, Anderson County, KY, Barren County, KY, Bath County, KY, Bourbon County, KY, Boyle County, KY, Carter County, KY, Casey County, KY, Clark County, KY, Clinton County, KY, Cumberland County, KY, Elliott County, KY, Estill County, KY, Fayette County, KY, Fleming County, KY, Garrard County, KY, Green County, KY, Jackson County, KY, Jessamine County, KY, Laurel County, KY, Lee County, KY, Lincoln County, KY, Madison County, KY, Marion County, KY, McCreary County, KY, Menifee County, KY, Mercer County, KY, Metcalfe County, KY, Monroe County, KY, Montgomery County, KY, Morgan County, KY, Nicholas County, KY, Owsley County, KY, Powell County, KY, Pulaski County, KY, Robertson County, KY, Rockcastle County, KY, Rowan County, KY, Russell County, KY, Scott County, KY, Taylor County, KY, Washington County, KY, Wayne County, KY, Wolfe County, KY, Woodford County, KY, Cannon County, TN, Clay County, TN, DeKalb County, TN, Jackson County, TN, Macon County, TN, Overton County, TN, Pickett County, TN, Putnam County, TN, Rutherford County, TN, Smith County, TN, Sumner County, TN, Trousdale County, TN, Wilson County, TN
The radar
The Louisville radar (KLVX), 127 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:56 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 12:00Z, 9.9 hours before the alert went out and 200 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 520 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 62 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 266 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 388 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
539
ACUS11 KWNS 152153
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152153
KYZ000-TNZ000-160200-
Mesoscale Discussion 0095
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0353 PM CST Mon Feb 15 2021
Areas affected...central/eastern Kentucky and a small part of middle
Tennessee
Concerning...Freezing rain
Valid 152153Z - 160200Z
SUMMARY...Freezing rain and/or sleet will continue over the next 2-4
hours across the discussion area.
DISCUSSION...Recent radar mosaic imagery indicates a substantial
band of freezing rain across eastern Kentucky near JKL and EKQ.
Precipitation has briefly lessened in intensity to the west of this
band, although newer development of showers of mostly freezing rain
(perhaps mixed with sleet) are occurring upstream near BNA - likely
due to an advancing shortwave centered over Louisiana. The
precipitation continues to fall amid a shallow, cold airmass and may
be mixing in with sleet at times. Accumulations of 0.05-0.1 inch
per hour have been noted with ongoing activity, and redevelopment
across Middle Tennessee suggests that much of the region will
continue to experience freezing rain over the next 2-4 hours.
..Cook.. 02/15/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...
LAT...LON 38288478 38588395 38428271 37878303 36868418 36018560
35618616 35848668 36698645 38288478SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 15, 5:57 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Ballard, Caldwell, Calloway, Carlisle, Crittenden, Fulton and 7 more | 6 hr |
| Feb 15, 9:28 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adair, Boyle, Casey, Clay, Clinton, Cumberland and 20 more | 6 hr |
| Feb 15, 10:44 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Ballard, Boone, Breckinridge, Bullitt, Butler, Caldwell and 35 more | 6 hr |
| Feb 15, 1:44 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Boyd, Carter, Elliott, Fleming, Greenup, Lawrence and 2 more | 6 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Tennessee, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.