Alert archive / Kentucky / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 95

February 15, 202146 counties in Kentucky; 13 counties in Tennessee

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 15, 2021, 3:53 PM CST for 46 counties in Kentucky; 13 counties in Tennessee. It was in force for 4 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Feb 15, 2021, 3:53 PM CST (21:53 UTC)
Expired
Feb 15, 2021, 8:00 PM CST
In force
4 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Freezing rain
All 59 counties

Adair County, KY, Allen County, KY, Anderson County, KY, Barren County, KY, Bath County, KY, Bourbon County, KY, Boyle County, KY, Carter County, KY, Casey County, KY, Clark County, KY, Clinton County, KY, Cumberland County, KY, Elliott County, KY, Estill County, KY, Fayette County, KY, Fleming County, KY, Garrard County, KY, Green County, KY, Jackson County, KY, Jessamine County, KY, Laurel County, KY, Lee County, KY, Lincoln County, KY, Madison County, KY, Marion County, KY, McCreary County, KY, Menifee County, KY, Mercer County, KY, Metcalfe County, KY, Monroe County, KY, Montgomery County, KY, Morgan County, KY, Nicholas County, KY, Owsley County, KY, Powell County, KY, Pulaski County, KY, Robertson County, KY, Rockcastle County, KY, Rowan County, KY, Russell County, KY, Scott County, KY, Taylor County, KY, Washington County, KY, Wayne County, KY, Wolfe County, KY, Woodford County, KY, Cannon County, TN, Clay County, TN, DeKalb County, TN, Jackson County, TN, Macon County, TN, Overton County, TN, Pickett County, TN, Putnam County, TN, Rutherford County, TN, Smith County, TN, Sumner County, TN, Trousdale County, TN, Wilson County, TN

The radar

The Louisville radar (KLVX), 127 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:56 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 12:00Z, 9.9 hours before the alert went out and 200 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Nashville Metro, TN at 12:00Z on 2021-02-15Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1 joules per kilogram.LCLEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Nashville Metro, TN at 12:00Z on 2021-02-15The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 266 square meters per square second.1939587897117136Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
520 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
62 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
266 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
388 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

539 
ACUS11 KWNS 152153
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152153 
KYZ000-TNZ000-160200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0095
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0353 PM CST Mon Feb 15 2021

Areas affected...central/eastern Kentucky and a small part of middle
Tennessee

Concerning...Freezing rain 

Valid 152153Z - 160200Z

SUMMARY...Freezing rain and/or sleet will continue over the next 2-4
hours across the discussion area.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar mosaic imagery indicates a substantial
band of freezing rain across eastern Kentucky near JKL and EKQ. 
Precipitation has briefly lessened in intensity to the west of this
band, although newer development of showers of mostly freezing rain
(perhaps mixed with sleet) are occurring upstream near BNA - likely
due to an advancing shortwave centered over Louisiana.  The
precipitation continues to fall amid a shallow, cold airmass and may
be mixing in with sleet at times.  Accumulations of 0.05-0.1 inch
per hour have been noted with ongoing activity, and redevelopment
across Middle Tennessee suggests that much of the region will
continue to experience freezing rain over the next 2-4 hours.

..Cook.. 02/15/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...

LAT...LON   38288478 38588395 38428271 37878303 36868418 36018560
            35618616 35848668 36698645 38288478

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 15, 5:57 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBallard, Caldwell, Calloway, Carlisle, Crittenden, Fulton and 7 more6 hr
Feb 15, 9:28 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Boyle, Casey, Clay, Clinton, Cumberland and 20 more6 hr
Feb 15, 10:44 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBallard, Boone, Breckinridge, Bullitt, Butler, Caldwell and 35 more6 hr
Feb 15, 1:44 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBoyd, Carter, Elliott, Fleming, Greenup, Lawrence and 2 more6 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Tennessee, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.