Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 837
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 2, 2021, 1:28 PM CDT for 17 counties in Texas. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 2, 2021, 1:28 PM CDT (18:28 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 2, 2021, 3:30 PM CDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch possible
- Chance of a watch
- 40%
Counties Andrews County, TX, Coke County, TX, Concho County, TX, Dawson County, TX, Ector County, TX, Gaines County, TX, Glasscock County, TX, Howard County, TX, Irion County, TX, Martin County, TX, McCulloch County, TX, Menard County, TX, Midland County, TX, Reagan County, TX, Schleicher County, TX, Sterling County, TX, Tom Green County, TX
The radar
The San Angelo radar (KSJT), 59 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:29 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 12:00Z, 6.5 hours before the alert went out and 118 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1221 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -73 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 848 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 23 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 58 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 48 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 1.6
The text
As transmitted.
263
ACUS11 KWNS 021828
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021828
TXZ000-022030-
Mesoscale Discussion 0837
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0128 PM CDT Wed Jun 02 2021
Areas affected...portions of western into central Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 021828Z - 022030Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to
develop over the next couple of hours across western/central Texas.
Hail and strong wind gusts may accompany this activity into the
early evening.
DISCUSSION...An outflow boundary from morning convection extends
from near BPG to SJT to BBD early this afternoon. Strong heating in
the vicinity of the boundary amid upper 50s to low 60s surface
dewpoints is aiding in strong destabilization, with 2000-2500 J/kg
MLCAPE noted in 18z mesoanalysis data. A couple of initial
thunderstorms have developed along/just north of the boundary within
the past hour or two before weakening. Additional, more robust
development, has been noted recently over northern Sterling County
with additional deepening CU noted further northwest to the north of
Midland. While large-scale forcing will remain somewhat modest,
additional diurnal development is expected in the vicinity of the
surface boundary given weak low level convergence and strong
instability. Steep midlevel lapse rates and sufficient shear should
allow for a couple of organized cells capable of hail and strong
gusts. Timing and convective coverage still remains somewhat
uncertain and trends will be monitored for possible watch issuance
over the next few hours.
..Leitman/Hart.. 06/02/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...
LAT...LON 32850192 32000051 31689966 31469927 31179910 30829922
30629954 30490014 30600067 30780116 31500215 31990269
32360289 32760275 32940235 32850192SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 1, 7:24 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Andrews, Borden, Cochran, Crosby, Dawson, Floyd and 11 more | 96 min |
| Jun 2, 6:14 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Archer, Baylor, Fisher, Haskell, Jones, Knox and 5 more | 2 hr |
| Jun 2, 2:50 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Andrews, Borden, Coke, Concho, Crockett, Dawson and 19 more | 6 hr |
| Jun 2, 4:56 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Austin, Bastrop, Bell, Brazos, Burleson, Burnet and 18 more | 3 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.