Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 836
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 2, 2021, 6:14 AM CDT for 11 counties in Texas. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 2, 2021, 6:14 AM CDT (11:14 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 2, 2021, 8:15 AM CDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch unlikely
- Chance of a watch
- 5%
Counties Archer County, TX, Baylor County, TX, Fisher County, TX, Haskell County, TX, Jones County, TX, Knox County, TX, Shackelford County, TX, Stephens County, TX, Stonewall County, TX, Throckmorton County, TX, Young County, TX
The radar
The Dyess AFB radar (KDYX), 85 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 11:18 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Fort Worth, TX (KFWD), launched 00:00Z, 11.2 hours before the alert went out and 245 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -2 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 850 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 14 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -42 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- -16 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
063
ACUS11 KWNS 021114
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021114
TXZ000-021315-
Mesoscale Discussion 0836
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0614 AM CDT Wed Jun 02 2021
Areas affected...Portions of western north TX
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 021114Z - 021315Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated severe wind gusts will remain possible in the
short term with a small cluster of storms. Watch issuance is not
expected.
DISCUSSION...A small cluster that has moved southeastward across
northwest TX overnight has recently developed an MCV on its northern
flank, and measured severe wind gusts to 59 mph have been reported
from two West TX Mesonet sites. Velocity imagery from the KDYX radar
shows enhanced inbound velocities along the apex of the bowing
segment. Although the airmass downstream of this convection is only
very weakly unstable, slightly greater low-level moisture in the
form of upper 50s to low 60s F surface dewpoints are present per
recent observations. A rather modest (15-20 kt) southerly low-level
jet may help maintain storm intensity in the short term, with
isolated strong to severe wind gusts the main threat. Given the very
limited thermodynamic environment, the overall severe risk is
expected to remain too marginal/isolated for watch issuance.
..Gleason/Edwards.. 06/02/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 33010085 33290063 33450015 33959997 33679865 33099862
32509896 32339978 32440050 33010085SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 1, 7:24 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Andrews, Borden, Cochran, Crosby, Dawson, Floyd and 11 more | 96 min |
| Jun 2, 1:28 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Andrews, Coke, Concho, Dawson, Ector, Gaines and 11 more | 2 hr |
| Jun 2, 2:50 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Andrews, Borden, Coke, Concho, Crockett, Dawson and 19 more | 6 hr |
| Jun 2, 4:56 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Austin, Bastrop, Bell, Brazos, Burleson, Burnet and 18 more | 3 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.