Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 835
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 1, 2021, 7:24 PM CDT for 17 counties in Texas. It was in force for 96 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 1, 2021, 7:24 PM CDT (00:24 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 1, 2021, 9:00 PM CDT
- In force
- 96 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch unlikely
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
Counties Andrews County, TX, Borden County, TX, Cochran County, TX, Crosby County, TX, Dawson County, TX, Floyd County, TX, Gaines County, TX, Garza County, TX, Hale County, TX, Hockley County, TX, Howard County, TX, Lamb County, TX, Lubbock County, TX, Lynn County, TX, Martin County, TX, Terry County, TX, Yoakum County, TX
The radar
The Lubbock radar (KLBB), 63 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:25 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 00:00Z, 0.4 hours before the alert went out and 130 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 571 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -62 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1475 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 47 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -25 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 22 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- -0.0
- Supercell composite
- -0.2
The text
As transmitted.
374
ACUS11 KWNS 020024
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020024
TXZ000-NMZ000-020200-
Mesoscale Discussion 0835
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0724 PM CDT Tue Jun 01 2021
Areas affected...portions of western Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 020024Z - 020200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated, marginally severe hail may briefly accompany one
of the stronger storms. A WW issuance is not expected.
DISCUSSION...Storms have organized into small, transient supercells
over the past couple of hours, with MRMS mosaic MESH data suggesting
that a couple of the storms may have briefly produced marginally
severe hail. These storms are propagating southward into an
environment with slightly higher mid-level lapse rates (exceeding
7.5 C/km per latest RAP forecast soundings), where up to 1000 J/kg
MLCAPE is present based on 00Z mesoanalysis. Diurnally driven
buoyancy overlapping 40 kts of effective bulk shear will continue to
support storm organization and the chance for a marginally severe
hailstone or damaging gust over the next few hours, as also
suggested by Warn-On-Forecast ensemble output. However, storms are
expected to gradually weaken after sunset when the boundary-layer
decouples. The isolated, brief nature of the severe threat precludes
a WW issuance.
..Squitieri/Guyer.. 06/02/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...
LAT...LON 32200136 32010243 32130281 32560313 33370319 33910307
34210246 34200169 34050115 33860101 33400090 32830097
32330121 32200136SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2, 6:14 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Archer, Baylor, Fisher, Haskell, Jones, Knox and 5 more | 2 hr |
| Jun 2, 1:28 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Andrews, Coke, Concho, Dawson, Ector, Gaines and 11 more | 2 hr |
| Jun 2, 2:50 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Andrews, Borden, Coke, Concho, Crockett, Dawson and 19 more | 6 hr |
| Jun 2, 4:56 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Austin, Bastrop, Bell, Brazos, Burleson, Burnet and 18 more | 3 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.