Mesoscale Discussion 744

Issued

May 26, 2021, 10:14 AM CDT (15:14 UTC)

Expired

May 26, 2021, 11:15 AM CDT

In force

61 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe potential...watch unlikely

Chance of a watch

5%

Counties Cheyenne County, KS, Decatur County, KS, Rawlins County, KS, Sherman County, KS, Thomas County, KS, Dundy County, NE, Hitchcock County, NE, Red Willow County, NE

The Goodland radar (KGLD), 60 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:15 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

356 
ACUS11 KWNS 261515
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261514 
KSZ000-NEZ000-261615-

Mesoscale Discussion 0744
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1014 AM CDT Wed May 26 2021

Areas affected...portions of northwestern Kansas/southwestern
Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 261514Z - 261615Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Local risk for hail is evident, though WW issuance is not
anticipated in the short term.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a few storms that have
developed over the past hour across a portion of northwestern Kansas
near KGLD.  The storms appear to be slightly elevated, just to the
cool side of a warm front analyzed across west-central
Kansas/northeastern Colorado.  The development appears to be tied to
a slight backing/increase in low-level flow -- and associated warm
advection, apparently in response to a very weak/subtle mid-level
disturbance crossing Colorado at this time.  

Steep lapse rates aloft/ample CAPE will support a continuation of
robust updrafts locally, though passage of the aforementioned
disturbance over the next couple of hours suggests that this
convective flare-up may be short-lived.  Most CAM runs support the
idea of this being a limited/transient uptick in convection, with
the primary initiation of more substantial/widespread storms to
occur later this afternoon.  In the mean time, aided by favorable
thermodynamics and ample cloud-layer shear, large hail will be
possible locally with one or two stronger/rotating storms.

..Goss/Hart.. 05/26/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...

LAT...LON   39980187 40430149 40460047 40049988 39450036 39080134
            39150181 39350204 39980187

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The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.