Mesoscale Discussion 749

Issued

May 26, 2021, 1:47 PM CDT (18:47 UTC)

Expired

May 26, 2021, 3:15 PM CDT

In force

88 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe potential...watch possible

Chance of a watch

60%

The Dodge City radar (KDDC), 112 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:51 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

• Tornado Watch 209May 26, 3:10 PM CDT
• Tornado Watch 210May 26, 4:40 PM CDT

996 
ACUS11 KWNS 261847
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261847 
KSZ000-COZ000-262015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0749
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 PM CDT Wed May 26 2021

Areas affected...portions of western and central Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 261847Z - 262015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Current convective trends suggest that additional storm
development may occur across portions of western and central Kansas
in the short term, that could prompt the need for Tornado Watch
issuance.

DISCUSSION...CAM guidance remains suggestive that appreciable storm
development across Kansas remains several hours in the future, late
this afternoon.  However, the most recent updraft development over
Ellis and Trego counties appears robust, and is occurring in close
proximity to the surface warm front -- likely where some outflow
reinforcement of the front has occurred as a result of earlier
storms farther to the northwest.  Meanwhile, the cu field along and
south of this boundary -- i.e. across western and central Kansas --
continues to gradually increase, suggestive of sustained mixing, and
possible/additional storm development more quickly than models would
suggest.

Should storm development near/south of the warm front increase
beyond just the Trego/Ellis county convection, the
moist/substantially destabilizing environment (3000 to 3500 J/kg
mixed-layer CAPE now indicated) could result in a rapid ramp-up in
severe potential.  In addition, with recent VWP data from the KDDC
WSR-88D indicative of low-level southeasterly/veering flow in the
0-2km layer quite a bit stronger than RUC forecasts, potential for
strong updraft rotation -- and associated tornado potential -- may
warrant tornado watch issuance earlier than previously anticipated.

..Goss/Hart.. 05/26/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...PUB...

LAT...LON   39780157 39790092 39299966 38889822 37879677 37359801
            37229973 37520113 38140199 39140277 39840204 39780157

Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.