Mesoscale Discussion 706

Issued

May 22, 2021, 5:31 PM MDT (23:31 UTC)

Expired

May 22, 2021, 7:30 PM MDT

In force

119 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe thunderstorm watch 195

Counties Phillips County, CO, Sedgwick County, CO, Cheyenne County, KS, Decatur County, KS, Rawlins County, KS, Chase County, NE, Cheyenne County, NE, Deuel County, NE, Dundy County, NE, Hayes County, NE, Hitchcock County, NE, Keith County, NE, Perkins County, NE, Red Willow County, NE

The Goodland radar (KGLD), 130 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:32 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

666 
ACUS11 KWNS 222331
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222331 
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-230130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0706
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0631 PM CDT Sat May 22 2021

Areas affected...Southwestern Nebraska and far northwester Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 195...

Valid 222331Z - 230130Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 195
continues.

SUMMARY...Additional storm development is possible along an outflow
boundary in northwest KS/southwest Nebraska. Increase in MLCIN this
evening makes that scenario uncertain. Storms are likely to move out
of Colorado later this evening and post some threat for
strong/damaging wind gusts and a brief tornado along the stationary
boundary.

DISCUSSION...Shear into southwestern Nebraska and northwestern
Kansas is generally weaker in the warm sector than areas to the
west. This has led to to a relatively disorganized storm mode.
Furthermore, storms that were initially intense along the stationary
boundary moved north and became elevated quickly. With this activity
departed, an outflow boundary is evident in surface observations and
visible satellite along the western NE/KS border. This area is
likely the remaining focus for any additional storm development this
evening. However, with capping beginning to increase, it is not
certain this will occur. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and
perhaps a tornado would be possible with that activity.

To the north and west, storms will not likely impact parts of the
Nebraska Panhandle until 9-11 PM CDT as activity moves northeast out
of Colorado. As this activity is expected to be more linear in mode,
damaging wind gusts would likely be the primary threat. Given the
presence of the boundary, a brief tornado could occur along and near
it.

..Wendt.. 05/22/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   39850215 40120227 40670242 41010280 41040321 41420346
            41690267 41430169 40540050 40070022 39510043 39490157
            39850215

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The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.