Mesoscale Discussion 704

Issued

May 22, 2021, 4:51 PM MDT (22:51 UTC)

Expired

May 22, 2021, 6:45 PM MDT

In force

114 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Tornado watch 193

Counties Bent County, CO, Cheyenne County, CO, Crowley County, CO, Elbert County, CO, Kiowa County, CO, Kit Carson County, CO, Las Animas County, CO, Lincoln County, CO, Logan County, CO, Morgan County, CO, Otero County, CO, Phillips County, CO, Pueblo County, CO, Sedgwick County, CO, Washington County, CO, Yuma County, CO

The Pueblo radar (KPUX), 101 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:54 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

130 
ACUS11 KWNS 222252
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222251 
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-230045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0704
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0551 PM CDT Sat May 22 2021

Areas affected...Eastern Colorado

Concerning...Tornado Watch 193...

Valid 222251Z - 230045Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 193 continues.

SUMMARY...The greatest threat for a tornado will exist with a mature
supercell moving along the Elbert/Lincoln County line. Instability
will decrease to the north given outflow from earlier storms, but
another 1-2 hour window of tornado risk is possible. Elsewhere, the
tornado threat will remain lower, but large hail and a few damaging
gusts may still occur into early evening.

DISCUSSION...Both the KFTG and KPUX radars have shown an increase in
0-1 km shear over the past hour or so from 10 to around 30 kts. This
has helped to foster increased low-level rotation in a storm moving
north through Lincoln County, which has produced several tornado
reports. Though the environment to the north of this storm has been
impacted by outflow from earlier convection, this mature supercell
will maintain some risk for a tornado for the next hour or two,
particularly if it can take on a more easterly motion. The low-level
jet will only modestly increase near the KS/CO border, but capping
will also become greater with time to the east.

Storms in the northern portion of WW 193 have motions that have
quickly moved them north of the boundary into more stable air. Large
hail and damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado will remain
possible with any storms that can mature before crossing the
boundary.

Storms in southeastern Colorado have mainly had a disorganized
character to them as they move off of the terrain. This is likely
due to a slightly less instability and weaker shear than points to
the north and south. The greatest threat in this region would likely
be from storms congealing and a cold pool driven wind gust threat
developing within the Plains to the east.

..Wendt.. 05/22/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON   38450271 37610326 37220394 37220401 37360430 38040462
            39170422 39930403 40280382 40820299 40970225 40830202
            39810190 39060210 38450271

Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.