Alert archive / Mississippi / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 576

May 9, 20219 counties in Mississippi

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 9, 2021, 6:40 PM CDT for 9 counties in Mississippi. It was in force for 65 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 9, 2021, 6:40 PM CDT (23:40 UTC)
Expired
May 9, 2021, 7:45 PM CDT
In force
65 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe thunderstorm watch 158

Counties Calhoun County, MS, Chickasaw County, MS, Itawamba County, MS, Lafayette County, MS, Lee County, MS, Monroe County, MS, Pontotoc County, MS, Prentiss County, MS, Union County, MS

The radar

The Columbus AFB radar (KGWX), 79 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:40 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Little Rock, AR (KLZK), launched 12:00Z, 11.7 hours before the alert went out and 105 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Little Rock, AR at 12:00Z on 2021-05-09Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 203 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Little Rock, AR at 12:00Z on 2021-05-09The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 446 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
203 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-439 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
759 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
26 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
446 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
571 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

030 
ACUS11 KWNS 092340
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092340 
ALZ000-MSZ000-100045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0576
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0640 PM CDT Sun May 09 2021

Areas affected...Northern Mississippi and far Northwest Alabama

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 158...

Valid 092340Z - 100045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 158
continues.

SUMMARY...Potential bowing segment and corridor of wind damage
developing the next 1-2 hours. A downstream watch may be considered.

DISCUSSION...A long-lived semi-discrete supercell has crossed the
Mississippi River, and is beginning to show early indications of
upscale convective growth and cold-pool organization, per KNQA and
KGWX radar observations. Should this convective trend continue, a
corridor of wind damage potential may materialize in the next 1-2
hours across northern portions of Mississippi. This trend is
supported by SPC Mesoanalysis, indicating 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE
amid 40-50 of effective bulk shear. Additionally, short-term
convection allowing models are suggestive of a bowing convective
segment tracking across this region. It remains uncertain how far
east the threat will persist, given the weaker
thermodynamic/kinematic environment over northwest Alabama
currently. However, should a bowing segment develop, a downstream
watch may be needed across this area.

..Karstens.. 05/09/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   33858925 34168991 34568999 34748955 34628834 34048806
            33648858 33858925

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 9, 12:14 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlcorn, Benton, Bolivar, Calhoun, Carroll, Coahoma and 22 more91 min
May 9, 1:14 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBolivar, Humphreys, Issaquena, Leflore, Sharkey, Sunflower and 1 more8 hr
May 9, 2:27 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAlcorn, Benton, Calhoun, Chickasaw, Coahoma, DeSoto and 16 more7 hr
May 9, 3:42 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlcorn, Benton, Bolivar, Calhoun, Chickasaw, Coahoma and 14 more93 min
May 9, 3:53 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClaiborne, Copiah, Covington, Hinds, Jasper, Jefferson and 10 more2 hr
May 9, 5:41 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBolivar, Coahoma, Humphreys, Issaquena, Sharkey, Sunflower and 1 more2 hr
May 9, 5:48 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlcorn, Benton, Coahoma, DeSoto, Itawamba, Lafayette and 11 more87 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Mississippi, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.