Mesoscale Discussion 380

Issued

Apr 13, 2021, 4:37 PM CDT (21:37 UTC)

Expired

Apr 13, 2021, 7:00 PM CDT

In force

2 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe potential...watch unlikely

Chance of a watch

5%

The Dyess AFB radar (KDYX), 129 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:40 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

682 
ACUS11 KWNS 132137
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132137 
OKZ000-TXZ000-140000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0380
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0437 PM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021

Areas affected...portions of western into northern Texas and far
southern Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 132137Z - 140000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A couple severe hailstones may result from the stronger
updrafts that manage to mature. The severe threat is expected to
remain sparse, and a WW issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Deep-layer ascent attributed to a glancing mid-level
impulse across the TX panhandle has encouraged scattered
thunderstorm development across western into northern TX and far
southwest OK. These elevated storms are ingesting CAPE contained
within the 700-200 mb layer, where over 40 kts of effective bulk
shear is present. However, despite the adequate deep shear for storm
organization, the elevated 500+ J/kg MUCAPE is represented by a
tall, skinny vertical profile despite the 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse
rates present. As such, updrafts, while occasionally organized, are
not expected to become particularly robust. Small hail may accompany
the stronger updrafts, but only the strongest, longest lasting
updrafts have an appreciable chance at producing at/greater than 1
inch diameter hailstones. Given the expected sparse nature of the
severe hail coverage, a WW issuance appears unlikely.

..Squitieri/Grams.. 04/13/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   32570306 33590151 34559960 34719905 34709818 34389789
            33899802 33399877 32609980 31840044 31420125 31330185
            31580244 31910289 32570306

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.