Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 374

April 12, 202116 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Apr 12, 2021, 9:26 PM CDT for 16 counties in Texas. It was in force for 64 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Apr 12, 2021, 9:26 PM CDT (02:26 UTC)
Expired
Apr 12, 2021, 10:30 PM CDT
In force
64 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe thunderstorm watch 93

Counties Burnet County, TX, Concho County, TX, Edwards County, TX, Gillespie County, TX, Kerr County, TX, Kimble County, TX, Kinney County, TX, Llano County, TX, Mason County, TX, McCulloch County, TX, Menard County, TX, Real County, TX, San Saba County, TX, Schleicher County, TX, Sutton County, TX, Val Verde County, TX

The radar

The Laughlin AFB radar (KDFX), 121 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:25 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Del Rio, TX (KDRT), launched 00:00Z, 2.4 hours before the alert went out and 140 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Del Rio, TX at 00:00Z on 2021-04-13Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 2255 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Del Rio, TX at 00:00Z on 2021-04-13The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 111 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
2255 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-208 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1434 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
52 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
111 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
206 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
1.6

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

847 
ACUS11 KWNS 130227
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130226 
TXZ000-130330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0374
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0926 PM CDT Mon Apr 12 2021

Areas affected...portions of southwest Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 93...

Valid 130226Z - 130330Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 93
continues.

SUMMARY...A localized severe hail threat may continue with existing
storms for a couple more hours. A localized extension of Severe
Thunderstorm Watch #093 may be needed if storms maintain their
intensity.

DISCUSSION...Two discrete supercells have initiated along the
trailing portion of a near-stationary cold front across Sutton and
Kimble Counties in southwest Texas. Latest MRMS mosaic radar data
shows 50+ dBZ cores reaching 35 kft, with MESH values nearing 2.0
inch diameters. Despite the intensity of the ongoing storms,
convective inhibition is gradually increasing in the midst of
nocturnal cooling. As such, these storms are not expected to be
particularly long-lived. Still, storms may continue for another hour
or so while producing severe hail given the presence of 9+ C/km
700-500 mb lapse rates (per 00Z DRT observed sounding) and resultant
1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE (when modified to match the latest KJCT METAR
observations, representative of the storm-relative environment). A
2.0 inch stone also cannot be completely ruled out. A localized
extension of WW 093 could be necessary should the storms maintain
intensity through 03Z.

..Squitieri.. 04/13/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   29680188 30900087 31399988 31529933 31369865 31059814
            30659818 30359885 29829956 29440003 29120029 28960070
            29680188

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Apr 12, 10:41 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCallahan, Fisher, Jones, Nolan, Palo Pinto, Shackelford and 4 more2 hr
Apr 13, 3:43 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCherokee, Houston, Nacogdoches, Shelby2 hr
Apr 13, 4:37 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAndrews, Archer, Baylor, Borden, Clay, Coke and 28 more2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.