Mesoscale Discussion 2072

Issued

Dec 29, 2021, 12:24 PM CST (18:24 UTC)

Expired

Dec 29, 2021, 2:00 PM CST

In force

96 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe potential...watch unlikely

Chance of a watch

5%

Counties Geneva County, AL, Houston County, AL, Calhoun County, FL, Holmes County, FL, Jackson County, FL, Walton County, FL, Washington County, FL

The Eglin Afb radar (KEVX), 27 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:24 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

340 
ACUS11 KWNS 291824
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291824 
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-292000-

Mesoscale Discussion 2072
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 PM CST Wed Dec 29 2021

Areas affected...portions of the western Florida Panhandle into
extreme southeast Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 291824Z - 292000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A damaging gust or perhaps a brief tornado may accompany
the strongest storms that can become organized along the coastline.
A WW issuance is not expected given the isolated, localized nature
of the severe threat.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of relatively robust convective updrafts have
recently become established just off of the FL shoreline along an
850 mb moisture axis, and are moving ashore along western portions
of the Panhandle. Little in the way of lightning has been observed
in the past 1-2 hours with these storms. However, modified 16Z RAP
forecast soundings (valid for 18Z) based on the latest METAR
observations shows up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE resides ahead of these
storms. While deep-layer shear remains weak, the 1801Z EVX VWP shows
modest 0-3 km veering, with up to 150 m2/s2 SRH present in this
layer. As such, it is not completely out of the question for any
sustained storm to produce a damaging gust or a brief tornado to
occur should a storm organize. Nonetheless, the weak deep-layer
shear will likely limit the degree of the severe threat, with the
lack of deep-layer ascent keeping the threat area localized. A WW
issuance is not expected.

..Squitieri/Hart.. 12/29/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

LAT...LON   30208675 30948617 31268565 31348526 31208505 30878485
            30518478 30298547 30088600 30208675

Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Alabama, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.