Mesoscale Discussion 2062

Issued

Dec 26, 2021, 9:07 PM CST (03:07 UTC)

Expired

Dec 27, 2021, 1:00 AM CST

In force

4 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Heavy snow

The Minneapolis radar (KMPX), 206 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:06 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

691 
ACUS11 KWNS 270307
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270307 
WIZ000-MNZ000-NDZ000-270700-

Mesoscale Discussion 2062
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0907 PM CST Sun Dec 26 2021

Areas affected...Eastern North Dakota into central Minnesota and
northwest Wisconsin

Concerning...Heavy snow 

Valid 270307Z - 270700Z

SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snowfall rates up to 1-2 in/hr remain
likely heading into the overnight hours as broken snow bands
continue to develop along/north of a mid-level baroclinic zone.
Additionally, increasing winds may result in areas of blowing snow.

DISCUSSION...Broken snow bands continue to develop across eastern ND
into central MN per recent regional radar mosaics. Latest IR imagery
shows cloud top cooling across parts of ND, indicative of
strengthening ascent associated with the approach of the upper wave
from the west/southwest. Additionally, RAP mesoanalysis has shown a
constriction of the baroclinic zone at the 700 mb level with
continued 30-50 knot cross-isothermal flow, which suggests mesoscale
forcing for ascent remains strong. At the surface, local forecast
offices have reported heavy snow accumulations, and web cams/surface
observations from eastern ND into eastern MN have shown periods of
heavy snow/reduced visibility under the snow bands. 

These trends suggest that the heavy snow potential will continue for
the next several hours and possibly into the early morning hours
Monday. Snowfall rates between 1-2 inches per hour remain possible
and may be bolstered by pockets of instability on the southern
periphery of the mid-level baroclinic zone. Furthermore, VWP
observations from KMVX show increasing winds within the lowest 1 km
in response to the approaching low. This has manifested at the
surface as wind gusts between 20-30 knots, which may support areas
of blowing snow under the heavier snow bands.

..Moore.. 12/27/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON   46179699 46669859 47169963 48059962 48489877 48479682
            47799427 47179243 46609143 46129096 45579105 45219129
            44919169 44769252 44979403 45639541 46179699

Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in North Dakota, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Wisconsin, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.