Alert archive / Illinois / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1833

October 11, 20219 counties in Illinois

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Oct 11, 2021, 3:37 PM CDT for 9 counties in Illinois. It was in force for 83 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Oct 11, 2021, 3:37 PM CDT (20:37 UTC)
Expired
Oct 11, 2021, 5:00 PM CDT
In force
83 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Tornado watch 521

Counties LaSalle County, IL, Marshall County, IL, Mason County, IL, Menard County, IL, Peoria County, IL, Putnam County, IL, Stark County, IL, Tazewell County, IL, Woodford County, IL

The radar

The Lincoln radar (KILX), 94 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:38 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Davenport, (KDVN), launched 12:00Z, 8.6 hours before the alert went out and 114 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Davenport, at 12:00Z on 2021-10-11Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Davenport, at 12:00Z on 2021-10-11The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 108 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
798 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
38 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
108 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
126 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

736 
ACUS11 KWNS 112037
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112037 
ILZ000-112200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1833
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0337 PM CDT Mon Oct 11 2021

Areas affected...central and north-central IL

Concerning...Tornado Watch 521...

Valid 112037Z - 112200Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 521 continues.

SUMMARY...The risk for wind damage and a couple of transient
mesovortices capable of a short-lived/weak tornado, will probably
maximize over the next 1-2 hours as a bowing squall line quickly
moves northeastward across north-central IL.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a maturing squall line in the
vicinity of a surface low over west-central IL.  The airmass over
the northern third of IL is moist (mid 60s surface dewpoints) but
clouds have tempered overall destabilization this afternoon. 
Nonetheless, weak buoyancy noted in RAP forecast soundings will aid
in storm vigor as the squall line moves northeast across central and
northwest IL through the early evening.  The primary risk will be
damaging gusts in association with surging areas of the squall line,
but a short-lived tornado is possible with more intense
eddies/mesovortices that become sustained as this activity moves
across the I-74 and I-80 corridors during the next few hours.  One
limitation that may limit the overall severe risk is weaker shear
evident at the Davenport, IA 88D VAD and this may limit the severe
risk near the MS River.

..Smith.. 10/11/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...DVN...

LAT...LON   41019014 41588921 41468861 41068849 39868988 41019014

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 11, 9:06 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Bond, Brown, Calhoun, Cass, Christian and 30 more2 hr
Oct 11, 12:37 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBoone, Bureau, Cook, DeKalb, DuPage, Grundy and 18 more113 min
Oct 11, 3:10 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCBoone, Bureau, Carroll, Cass, Champaign, Christian and 45 more6 hr
Oct 11, 6:09 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBoone, Champaign, Coles, Cook, DeKalb, Douglas and 13 more96 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Illinois, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.