Alert archive / Illinois / Tornado Watches in 2021

Tornado Watch 521

October 11, 202151 counties in Illinois

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Oct 11, 2021, 3:10 PM CDT for 51 counties in Illinois. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Oct 11, 2021, 3:10 PM CDT (20:10 UTC)
Expired
Oct 11, 2021, 9:00 PM CDT
In force
6 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1.5 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 51 counties

Boone County, IL, Bureau County, IL, Carroll County, IL, Cass County, IL, Champaign County, IL, Christian County, IL, Clark County, IL, Coles County, IL, Cook County, IL, Cumberland County, IL, DeKalb County, IL, DeWitt County, IL, Douglas County, IL, DuPage County, IL, Edgar County, IL, Effingham County, IL, Ford County, IL, Fulton County, IL, Grundy County, IL, Henry County, IL, Iroquois County, IL, Kane County, IL, Kankakee County, IL, Kendall County, IL, Knox County, IL, Lake County, IL, LaSalle County, IL, Lee County, IL, Livingston County, IL, Logan County, IL, Macon County, IL, Marshall County, IL, Mason County, IL, McHenry County, IL, McLean County, IL, Menard County, IL, Morgan County, IL, Moultrie County, IL, Ogle County, IL, Peoria County, IL, Piatt County, IL, Putnam County, IL, Sangamon County, IL, Shelby County, IL, Stark County, IL, Tazewell County, IL, Vermilion County, IL, Whiteside County, IL, Will County, IL, Winnebago County, IL, Woodford County, IL

The radar

The Lincoln radar (KILX), 56 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:12 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
50%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
20%
Ten or more severe wind reports
40%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
20%
Ten or more severe hail reports
20%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
10%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
60%

Warnings issued inside it

15 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 11, 3:12 PM CDTTornado WarningILXMorgan, Sangamon33 min
Oct 11, 3:32 PM CDTTornado Warning Tornado observedILXCass, Menard, Morgan, Sangamon30 min
Oct 11, 3:50 PM CDTTornado Warning Tornado observedILXFulton, Mason, Tazewell25 min
Oct 11, 4:21 PM CDTTornado WarningILXLogan, Mason24 min
Oct 11, 4:47 PM CDTTornado Warning Tornado observedILXMarshall, Woodford28 min
Oct 11, 4:56 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningILXDeWitt, Logan, Macon, Piatt49 min
Oct 11, 5:03 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningILXDeWitt, Logan, McLean, Macon, Piatt42 min
Oct 11, 5:12 PM CDTTornado WarningDVNPutnam48 min
Oct 11, 5:14 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningILXMcLean, Woodford61 min
Oct 11, 5:37 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threatLOTFord, Grundy, LaSalle, Livingston68 min
Oct 11, 5:38 PM CDTTornado WarningILXWoodford20 min
Oct 11, 5:42 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningILXChampaign, DeWitt, Douglas, McLean, Macon, Piatt63 min
Oct 11, 5:58 PM CDTTornado WarningDVNBureau, Putnam47 min
Oct 11, 6:44 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLOTDeKalb, LaSalle, Lee, Ogle61 min
Oct 11, 6:49 PM CDTTornado WarningLOTLaSalle, Lee13 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Lincoln, IL (KILX), launched 12:00Z, 8.2 hours before the alert went out and 60 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Lincoln, IL at 12:00Z on 2021-10-11Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 287 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Lincoln, IL at 12:00Z on 2021-10-11The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 206 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
287 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-72 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
867 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
52 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
206 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
230 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.3
Supercell composite
1.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

581 
WWUS20 KWNS 112007
SEL1  
SPC WW 112007
ILZ000-INZ000-LMZ000-120200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 521
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
310 PM CDT Mon Oct 11 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Central and Northern Illinois
  Northwest Indiana
  Lake Michigan

* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 310 PM until
  900 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
  Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will intensify across central and
northern Illinois this afternoon ahead of an approaching upper low. 
The strongest cells may become supercells, capable of isolated
tornadoes and damaging wind gusts.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
east and west of a line from 35 miles south southwest of Decatur IL
to 45 miles east northeast of Rockford IL. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 24035.

...Hart

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 11, 9:06 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Bond, Brown, Calhoun, Cass, Christian and 30 more2 hr
Oct 11, 12:37 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBoone, Bureau, Cook, DeKalb, DuPage, Grundy and 18 more113 min
Oct 11, 3:37 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCLaSalle, Marshall, Mason, Menard, Peoria, Putnam and 3 more83 min
Oct 11, 6:09 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBoone, Champaign, Coles, Cook, DeKalb, Douglas and 13 more96 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Illinois, 2021Every tornado watch in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.