Alert archive / Ohio / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1750

September 14, 202114 counties in Indiana; 5 counties in Michigan; 34 counties in Ohio

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Sep 14, 2021, 7:46 PM EDT for 14 counties in Indiana; 5 counties in Michigan; 34 counties in Ohio. It was in force for 89 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Sep 14, 2021, 7:46 PM EDT (23:46 UTC)
Expired
Sep 14, 2021, 9:15 PM EDT
In force
89 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe potential...watch unlikely
Chance of a watch
20%
All 53 counties

Adams County, IN, Allen County, IN, Blackford County, IN, DeKalb County, IN, Delaware County, IN, Grant County, IN, Howard County, IN, Huntington County, IN, Jay County, IN, Miami County, IN, Randolph County, IN, Wabash County, IN, Wells County, IN, Whitley County, IN, Lenawee County, MI, Macomb County, MI, Monroe County, MI, Washtenaw County, MI, Wayne County, MI, Allen County, OH, Auglaize County, OH, Champaign County, OH, Clark County, OH, Crawford County, OH, Darke County, OH, Defiance County, OH, Delaware County, OH, Erie County, OH, Fulton County, OH, Hancock County, OH, Hardin County, OH, Henry County, OH, Huron County, OH, Logan County, OH, Lorain County, OH, Lucas County, OH, Madison County, OH, Marion County, OH, Mercer County, OH, Miami County, OH, Morrow County, OH, Ottawa County, OH, Paulding County, OH, Putnam County, OH, Richland County, OH, Sandusky County, OH, Seneca County, OH, Shelby County, OH, Union County, OH, Van Wert County, OH, Williams County, OH, Wood County, OH, Wyandot County, OH

The radar

The Northern Indiana radar (KIWX), 143 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:48 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Cncnati-Daytn, OH (KILN), launched 12:00Z, 11.8 hours before the alert went out and 183 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Cncnati-Daytn, OH at 12:00Z on 2021-09-14Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 772 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Cncnati-Daytn, OH at 12:00Z on 2021-09-14The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 51 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
772 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-37 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
977 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
23 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
51 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
90 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

224 
ACUS11 KWNS 142347
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142346 
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-150115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1750
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0646 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021

Areas affected...Southeast Michigan...northern Indiana...and
northwest Ohio

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 142346Z - 150115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat may continue, but no watch is
expected.

DISCUSSION...Severe reports have been sporadic across watch 498 this
afternoon due to the limited intensity and storm coverage across the
region. The boundary layer has started to cool ahead of these storms
as the sun sets. Continued boundary-layer cooling and increasing
inhibition should limit storm intensity east of watch 498. Isolated
strong to severe storms remain possible, but a more organized threat
is not expected and therefore, no downstream watch is anticipated.

..Bentley/Edwards.. 09/14/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...

LAT...LON   40558628 40808612 42418377 42898234 42158266 41898264
            41588214 40558242 40218280 40218280 39818342 40058552
            40368606 40558628

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Sep 14, 2:12 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllen, DeKalb, Elkhart, Fulton, Huntington, Kosciusko and 9 more2 hr
Sep 14, 3:08 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAllen, Blackford, Cass, DeKalb, Elkhart, Fulton and 16 more7 hr
Sep 14, 4:18 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBenton, Newton, Warren117 min
Sep 14, 6:04 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Allen, Blackford, Carroll, Cass, DeKalb and 15 more86 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Ohio, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Indiana, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Michigan, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.